Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Someone’s going to have to explain to me how the host White Sox could have allowed Tuesday’s game against the Rangers to have started and gone only four pitches before getting postponed to rain, especially when they basically burned their only good starter in Garrett Crochet to throw those four pitches. Was that just the most creative way yet to preserve his arm? Just a bonkers way to go about things.
But the upshot of that puzzling maneuver is that we have a 16-game MLB slate Wednesday to pick bets from, starting with Cubs/Pirates at 12:35 p.m. ET and ending with Orioles/Dodgers at 10:10 p.m. Below are my favorite bets of the day. The odds change pretty quickly in baseball, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for the key picks from around FTN.
MLB Best Bets for Wednesday
Texas Rangers Win/Over 8.5 (Game 2)
(Same-Game Parlay: +155, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Rangers draw the White Sox in a doubleheader Wednesday (well, nearly a doubleheader — the first four pitches already happened). In the second game (8:10 p.m. ET), the Rangers are throwing Jack Leiter, who was obliterated in his first few tastes of big-league hitting this season, allowing a 16.39 ERA over 9.1 innings in three starts. He’s looked like an entirely different pitcher in the minor leagues, with a 2.57 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 42 innings since June 12. Letting him face the woeful White Sox is a fantastic way to try to build some confidence in a young pitcher who has struggled.
On top of that, remember, “woeful White Sox.” The Rangers swept a four-game series against Chicago after the All-Star break that likely convinced the team not to sell at the trade deadline, only for the team to go 9-19 since. There’s no cure for what ails you like a game against the 31-101 White Sox. The Rangers should have little trouble dismantling the White Sox, especially in the second game of a de facto doubleheader where an already-bad bullpen is going to be at half-strength and with some regulars likely getting the day off, and even if Leiter struggles again, the Rangers should be fine to win a high-scoring game.
Spencer Arrighetti Under 16.5 Outs Recorded
(-106, BetRivers)
Arrighetti has been on fire lately. His month-by-month ERA:
- April: 10.97 (10.2 innings)
- May: 4.36 (33.0 innings)
- June: 5.06 (21.1 innings)
- July: 5.33 (27.0 innings)
- August: 2.55 ERA (24.2 innings)
He had 104 strikeouts in 92.0 innings through the end of July, but that has jumped to a dynamic 36 in 24.2 innings this month. On the other side, the Phillies came out of the All-Star break scuffling in a bad way, going 4-12 and 7-16. Sounds good for Arrighetti, right?
Well, the Phillies have turned things around. After their brief swoon, they’ve gone 9-4 in their last 13. Their bats fell to slightly below average in the couple weeks out of the break, but they’ve righted the ship, with a 124 wRC+ over the last two weeks that is fourth best in the league. And with the Astros putting some distance between them and the rest of the AL West and basically out of the running for a playoff bye, they are moving toward the “just keep people healthy” portion of their season. In other words, they aren’t going to press Arrighetti or any of their much-needed starters down the stretch in an effort to keep them sound for the postseason. Even on a hot stretch, Arrighetti is still a rookie who has been more bad than good this season, against an elite offense, with little reason to push him beyond his limits. That screams “five-and-out.”
