Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Saturday brings us a full day of baseball, with three games in the noon (ET) hour going all the way to Rockies/Angels at 9:38 p.m. and A’s/Giants at 9:45. Every team except the Tigers and Guardians (weird) is in action, and heading into a Thursday that has only five games, most teams will be able to push their bullpens if need be. And with the trade deadline in the past, no one is going to be pulled because of rumors.
That sets up an interesting Wednesday of MLB betting. Below are my favorite bets of the day. The odds change pretty quickly in baseball, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for the key picks from around FTN.
MLB Best Bets for Wednesday
Taj Bradley Over 8 Strikeouts
(+165, DraftKings Sportsbook)
It’s very hard to find any value on Taj Bradley’s various props Wednesday. After all, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the better part of two months now (0.82 ERA in 55.0 innings since his first start of June), and he’s facing a Marlins team that — after all its trades — you might be able to play for if you can get to Tampa by noon. I had to go alt-line chasing to find a line I like. But with the Marlins fielding an amateur lineup that also doesn’t get a day off until Aug. 12, this team is set up for a very bad day at the plate. Bradley has only topped this line three times all season (plus two games with exactly 8 K’s), but he’s finished 6 innings in all four July starts. Considering the woeful lineup the Marlins are running out there, Bradley could get this line by the fourth or fifth inning, but even if he doesn’t, he’s just about the safest bet to go 7 innings out there on Wednesday.
Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Cardinals brought in Erick Fedde at the deadline, but he won’t be ready to debut for the team until Friday. The team needs a spot starter for Wednesday, so they’re calling up 2021 first-rounder Michael McGreevy to make his MLB debut. McGreevy has failed to launch so far as a minor league, with a 4.26 ERA and only 7.5 K/9 in four years and 82 games as a minor-leaguer. A righty, McGreevy’s struggles have primarily come again lefty hitters—he’s allowed a .231/.261/.367 slash line to right-handers this year, but a .280/,359/.480 to lefties. Right-handed hitters have 16 extra-base hits against McGreevy in 199 at bats; lefties have 26 in 229.
The Rangers have three left-handed hitters and two switch hitters in their normal lineup. Leody Taveras and Jonah Heim bat too low in the order to put this bet on. Josh Smith has reverse splits both this year and career-wise. Corey Seager is a superstar, but that also means his line is over 2.5 so harder to get to. That brings us to Lowe, who has an .801 career OPS and 60 home runs against right-handed pitchers. And after struggling to open the season, Lowe has turned it on in July, to the tune of a .291/.411/.494 slash line in 23 games this month and 5 of his 9 home runs this month. The Rangers should have little trouble against McGreevy, and Lowe is my favorite to feast.
