Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s Wednesday in Major League Baseball, which means day games throughout the day, as well as a tasty night slate. Below, we’ll be focusing on one of the night games.
As always, odds can fluctuate, so be sure to head over to the Prop Shop to ensure you grab the best possible number.
Chris Sale Over 7.5 Strikeouts
(-128, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Our bet of the day heads to Atlanta with ace Chris Sale taking the bump in an assignment against the Reds. Now, this Reds lineup can certainly be dangerous, but there is significant swing-and-miss risk throughout their lineup. In a matchup against Chris Sale, who is in the 93rd percentile in chase rate, 86th percentile in whiff rate and 94th percentile in strikeout rate, per MLB Savant.
This season, Sale has revitalized his career to a point where he is actually the National League Cy Young favorite at the All-Star Break. Sale’s 32.4% strikeout rate and 14.4% swinging strike rate are his best since 2019, where he collected 13.32 K/9.
The Reds present an excellent matchup as well, as they strikeout at the fourth-highest clip versus left-handed pitching since July 1, 29.9% of the time. Additionally, the Reds whiff 26.4% of the time, which is 10th highest in baseball this season. Our FTN Prop Tool projects Sale for 8.08 strikeouts, giving us a slight edge, but with a doubleheader, the umpire assignment has potential to improve as Hunter Wendlestedt may be drawing the nightcap assignment, who owns a 1.04x boost to strikeouts, per Swish Analytics.
