NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/2)
Alex Christenson
It’s Wednesday in Major League Baseball, which means day games throughout the day, as well as a tasty night slate. Today, we’ll be focusing on one of the night games.
As always, odds can fluctuate, so be sure to head over to the Prop Shop to ensure you grab the best possible number.
New York Mets Over 4 Runs Team Total
-118, Caesars Sportsbook
Forgive me being a homer with this play, but if we’re being honest, I probably fade the Mets in some way three times as often as I back them. This is simply a play I cannot get away from. This season, when the Mets see a left-handed starting pitcher, they have averaged 5.1 runs per game, whereas versus a right-handed starting pitcher, they have averaged just 4.5 runs per game. Additionally, overs are 13-6-1 in games the Mets have faced a left-handed starting pitcher, and overs are also 21-8-2 in their road games. The latter is the best over rate this season, while the former is second best.
In 2024, the Rangers are 2-11 in Andrew Heaney’s starts, and the Rangers southpaw owns a 5.54 home ERA. In 68 career plate appearances, active Mets hitters own a .311 AVG and .378 wOBA. In 2024, the Mets rank sixth in AVG, third in SLG, fifth in ISO, third in wOBA and second in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching when using the active players split, so it’s no surprise to see totals favoring the over when they see a southpaw. Over the last 30 days versus left-handed pitching, the Mets rank first in all those listed categories except ISO, which they rank second.
Unders have been hitting at a pretty good rate at Globe Life Field this season (23-11-1), but both games in this series have gone over. With the way the Mets bats have been clicking of late, in addition to some favorable trends, I’ll be taking their team total of four runs in this nightcap.
