Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s Wednesday around Major League Baseball, which means day baseball throughout the day, as well as a tasty night slate. Below, we’ll be focusing on one of the night games.
As always, odds can fluctuate, so be sure to head over to the Prop Shop to ensure you grab the best possible number.
MLB Best Bets for Wednesday
New York Yankees Moneyline
-141, BetRivers
In February, MLB fans may have circled this series as one of the most anticipated series in the entire 2024 season, but currently, the Astros are the most underwhelming team in baseball. The Yankees have lived up to most of their hype, as they are currently in a virtual tie atop the AL East with the Orioles (though one back in the loss column). As we know, the Yankees are led offensively by Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, but it’s the depth of their lineup that really makes them threatening. The addition of Alex Verdugo into the middle of their lineup as well as resurgences of both Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton really gives this lineup a 180 from a season ago. They also have Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres, who we know are capable of being sound bats, though both have struggled.
Wednesday, the Yankees will turn to Carlos Rodon, who has been stellar in comparison to his first season in New York, currently carrying a 3.68 ERA. While his 22.6% strikeout rate still isn’t close to his pre-Yankee days, he has cut down some on his walk and home run rate from last season, both of which are big reasons why he’s kept his ERA down. While this isn’t the Cy Young-level Rodon of old, he’s getting the job done. Meanwhile, the Astros turn to Spencer Arrighetti, who will make his fifth MLB start. Through his first four starts, the Astros are 1-3, while Arrighetti owns an 8.27 ERA. He does maintain a solid 4.14 xFIP, which does suggest he’s been unlucky thus far. My biggest issue in this particular matchup is his 12.3% walk rate. Walks have always been an issue, as he posted a 13.4% walk rate in Triple-A last season, and 11.5% across Single-A and Double-A in 2022. A high walk rate isn’t going to work against a Yankees lineup ranking second in walk rate versus right-handed pitching this season.
While the Astros lineup still has the core pieces that have been responsible for their mini dynasty run, it’s their pitching that has largely let them down this season. Their bullpen ranks in the bottom third of MLB (Yankees are first), so it won’t get any prettier once the Yankees knock Arrighetti out. In 2024 though, the Astros are just 12-23, and 1-4 as underdogs. The Yankees are 19-9 as favorites in 2024, giving them the fifth-highest win percentage as favorites in the league. Tuesday night, Yordan Alvarez fouled a ball of his back kneecap, needing several minutes of treatment before finishing his at-bat (one pitch for a walk). He did see another plate appearance, once again walking, before being lifted in the eighth inning due to a blowout. He had struggled to put weight on the knee, so it’s entirely possible he’s given a maintenance day, which would be a drastic blow to this Astros lineup. For me, this is a pure fade of an incredibly overrated Astros team at the moment, who continue to be priced off their reputation, despite owning the fourth-worst record in MLB, ahead of only the Rockies, White Sox and Marlins.
