MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
It’s Wednesday in Major League Baseball, which means day baseball throughout the day, as well as a tasty night slate. Today, we’ll be focusing on one of the night games.
As always, odds can fluctuate, so be sure to head over to the Prop Shop to ensure you grab the best possible number.
Cleveland Guardians Moneyline
-148, DraftKings Sportsbook/FanDuel Sportsbook
I’ve done a “Bet of the Day” article every other week throughout the MLB season, and to this point, I’m not sure I’ve given out a straight moneyline play, so this will be a first this season for this article. Wednesday, the Guardians are in Coors for a matchup with the Colorado Rockies that pins Logan Allen against Ty Blach. On paper, that matchup certainly favors the Guardians, but as we know in Coors, pitching matchups tell very little, if any of the story.
So where does that leave us in this matchup? Well, so far this season the Guardians are an incredible 10-2 against left-handed starting pitchers, which leads baseball. On the other side, the Rockies are just 5-10 (.333), 25th in the league. The Guardians are additionally 19-12 on the road, which is the fifth-best road winning percentage in baseball. Want one more interesting trend? The Guardians are 24-10 as favorites, fourth best in baseball. So this is a matchup that sees trends favoring the Guardians.
Why have the Guardians done so well against left-handed starting pitching? This season, using active players in the splits, the Guardians rank second in ISO, fourth in wOBA, fourth in OPS, fifth in wRC+ and fifth in OBP. Rockies starter Ty Blach finds himself first percentile in whiff and strikeout rates per Baseball Savant, as well as second percentile in xBA and third percentile in xERA. Meanwhile, the Rockies are merely an average offense versus left-handed pitching, ranking 16th in ISO, 13th in wOBA, 13th in OPS, 21st in wRC+ and 14th in OBP. Cleveland’s lineup has been red hot over the last two weeks, and given the disparity in starting pitchers (despite playing in Coors), with where Cleveland’s lineup currently stands, I’m loving the road favorites here.
