Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s Tuesday in Major League Baseball, which means we have a jampacked slate with all 30 teams in action.
As always, odds can fluctuate, so be sure to head over to the Prop Shop to ensure you grab the best possible number.
MLB Best Bets
Braves/Red Sox Under 8.5 Runs
(-120, ESPNBet)
The Braves and Red Sox kick off their two-game series in Boston in a matchup that pins NL Cy Young candidate Max Fried against Kutter Crawford. This is an interesting matchup, and certainly an interesting under play, given the ceilings of these two offenses. However, trends point to the under in this one. In 2024, the Braves are playing a ridiculous 27-9-2 to the under against right-handed starting pitchers. They’re additionally playing 16-9-1 to the under in road games. As for the Red Sox, they are playing 10-5-1 to the under against left-handed starting pitchers, as well as 18-10-2 to the under in home games.
As we know, the Braves are now without Ronald Acuña Jr,. and while the reigning NL MVP was in the midst of an underwhelming 2024 season, the loss of his bat atop the Braves lineup is still a significant loss. In the month of May, the Braves ranked 20th in batting average in baseball against right-handed pitching, as well as 16th in ISO, 23rd in wOBA and 24th in wRC+. If you factor in road splits in addition to right-handed pitching, they ranked dead last in batting average, 22nd in ISO, 27th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+.
The Red Sox lineup has also struggled versus left-handed pitching, and Max Fried certainly won’t be an easy matchup in a split they’ve struggled in. During the month of May, the Red Sox ranked 19th in wOBA, 22nd in wRC+, and 24th in ISO, while striking out at the second highest clip. The Sox are without Triston Casas and Tyler O’Neill, the only two players on their roster with ISOs over .210 versus left-handed pitching, as well as two of the four with wOBAs better than .320 in that split (Connor Wong and Rob Refsnyder being the other two). All in all, this is a poor lineup versus lefties. Both Atlanta and Boston have bullpens ranking top 12 in ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA as well, so it won’t get much easier for either lineup once they get into respective bullpens.
