Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are 11 games on the MLB slate Monday and plenty of action to be had around the diamond. Below you’ll see a list of my favorite MLB picks and props.
The odds change pretty quickly in baseball, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and our Pick Tracker for all my picks and FTN’s picks.
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Best MLB Bets Today
Chris Flexen Over 5.5 Hits Allowed
(-120, Caesars)
Flexen checks in with an 80.1% contact rate, which is on par for his career (80.9%). It’s a big reason he’s allowed 148 hits in 134.1 innings. He enters with a 94:55 K:BB (6.30 K/9, 3.68 BB/9) and 5.29 ERA. On top of that, Flexen has a 46% fly-ball rate, leading to 19 home runs.
As he enters his road start in Baltimore, Flexen carries a 6.92 ERA over 52.0 innings. Opponents are slashing .295/.352/.514 with a .369 wOBA. The White Sox pitcher has allowed at least six hits in six of his last eight road starts.
The Orioles are one of the best teams against right-handed pitchers. They rank second in home runs (150), fourth in runs (506), second in ISO (.193), third in SLG (.442), sixth in wOBA (.325) and third in wRC+ (114).
Anthony Santander leads the O’s with 28 homers and 66 RBI against righties, so I listed two of his MLB props below. Lefties get after Flexen, so I have a couple of props for Ryan O’Hearn, who has the second-best average on the team against RHP (.271) and fifth-best wOBA (.343). Lefties have 12 of the 19 home runs against Flexen. They also have a higher line-drive rate and a 50% FB rate compared to a 42% vs RHH.
Bonus
Orioles O 5.5 Runs (+105, DraftKings)
Anthony Santander O 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-135, Bet365)
Santander Home Run .25u (+450, BetMGM)
Ryan O’Hearn O 1.5, Hits, Runs, RBI (-150, Bet365)
O’Hearn Home Run .25u (+675, BetMGM)
