Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
MLB’s best bets are back in action for Wednesday with a full 15-game slate. We’ll have action at the start of nearly every hour to start the day, with games scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET, 2.10, 3:37 and 4:07. With every team in action, value is sure to be found somewhere, so let’s jump in and see which game has the most.
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago and Pittsburgh will square off for Game 2 of their three-game series after Chicago took Game 1 4-3. Former Pirate Trevor Williams will take the mound for Chicago, while Pittsburgh will counter with Wil Crowe.
Through the first two months (or so) of the season, Chicago has proven to be about a league-average team against right-handed pitching, putting up the 15th-ranked .309 wOBA and No. 16 wRC+ at 95. While certainly underwhelming, the 13% difference between Chicago’s wRC+ compared to Pittsburgh is bigger than the gap between second and 12th place, proving that even though Chicago’s offense isn’t elite, it’s still much better than what Pittsburgh has to offer. Their BB% and OBP both are both borderline top-10 marks, while their .286 BABIP does leave the door open for the slightest bit of positive regression. Even while posting mediocre at best marks, Chicago has had the seventh-highest barrel rate on the year and a hard-hit rate just outside the top 10. They may not have had the results they’ve wanted so far, but they’re squaring balls up and making hard contact more often than a majority of the league.
Williams’ start in a Chicago uniform has certainly been one he’d like to put behind him. Through nine starts and 37 innings on the year, he’s put up a 5.97 ERA to go along with a 5.43 FIP. He’s added more than a walk to last year’s BB/9 number, while allowing a .502 wOBA on the road. It’s not all terrible, though. He’s been extremely unlucky with a .371 BABIP (a ridiculous .500 on the road) and a sky-high 23.5% HR/FB%. On top of that, he’s actually added over 2 strikeouts to his K/9 mark from last year and had increased his groundball rate. Don’t get me wrong, the results have been terrible for Williams so far this season, but it seems like a decent amount of that has also been bad luck.
To nobody’s surprise, Pittsburgh has been one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. They have bottom-five marks in both wOBA (.288) and wRC+ (82) against righties while having a stabilized .295 BABIP. Their BB% is bottom 10, slugging second-lowest, OPS bottom-five, and they have the lowest ISO in the majors. They have the lowest hard-hit rate in the league, while also having the lowest barrel rate. By all accounts, Pittsburgh is a terrible offense and there isn’t much here to spark confidence.
Crowe’s first full season in the majors has gotten off to a pretty horrendous start. His ERA is up at 4.91, while his 5.06 FIP is even higher. He hasn’t been hit by bad luck all that much either, with a BABIP sitting exactly at .300 and a HR/FB% a little higher than normal. He’s in the bottom 25% of the majors in xWOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, BB% and whiff rate, with his barrel rate ranking at exactly league average. Much like Pittsburgh’s offense, there isn’t a lot that has sparked confidence from Crowe’s performance so far this year and I don’t see things changing for him here.
The pick
Usually, it’s the road dogs that are undervalued, but here it’s the road favorite. Even at -140, I’m seeing value on Chicago as I have them projected to be almost -170 favorites. There’s nothing on the Pittsburgh side that intimidates me all that much, so I’m fine paying a higher price than I’d typically play for a team that should be an even bigger favorite. Chicago -140.
