MLB Best Bets for Thursday (7/1)

We’ve flipped the calendars to July as the MLB season rolls into its fourth month. Some teams — the San Francisco Giants and Boston Red Sox to name a couple — have drastically exceeded expectations, while others — like the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins — have fallen quite short of theirs.

The All-Star break is just a couple of weeks around the corner, so let’s continue to find value before a few MLB-less days come our way.

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

After splitting the first two games of the series, Miami and Philadelphia will be looking to secure Game 3 and the series win. Pablo López will be taking the mound for Miami as Philadelphia counters with Zach Eflin.

This matchup will consist of two average-to-below offenses going head-to-head. Miami and Philadelphia are tied for the No. 25th .295 wOBA against right-handers, while Miami holds a 91-85 wRC+ advantage due to the fact that the parks they’ve played in have been more pitcher-friendly than Philadelphia’s. Both of their BABIPs and HR/FB rates are within an appropriate range, suggesting that neither have been too susceptible to bad luck either. Philadelphia and Miami both have about average OBPs with Philadelphia’s .305 ranked 19th and Miami’s .303 ranked 22nd, but none of their SLG, OPS or ISO marks rank above 25th in the entire league. Over the last two weeks, Miami does rank better in terms of average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate, so they could be starting to turn it around and in a battle of two sub-par offenses, being hot at the right time could be the key.

On the hill for Miami is Pablo López, who is putting together a spectacular season so far. He’s pitched to the tune of a 2.87 ERA and 3.27 FIP over 91 innings and 16 starts. Lopez mixes his pitches well, throwing a four-seamer (32%), changeup (32%), sinker (13%), cutter (12%), and curveball (10%), an arsenal that could be tough for Philadelphia to read as they rank as below-average against nearly every pitch. He ranks within the top 15% of the league in terms of average exit velocity, hard hit%, and chase rate while checking in with top 25% marks in xwOBA, xERA and BB%. Pablo López may not be the household name everyone recognizes, but he is not a start to be overlooked.

For Philadelphia, Zach Eflin in putting up a respectable season himself, with a 4.20 ERA and a 3.54 FIP through 15 starts. While he does have an elite BB% ranking n the top 1% of the league, the rest of his stats are fairly mediocre. His average exit velo, xWOBA, xERA and barrel rate his only other statistics in the top 50%, with none of them ranking higher than the top 40%. Meanwhile, his xSLG, xBA, K% and hard hit rate are all below-average marks. With a batting average against at .280 and a WHIP that’s been hovering around 1.30, it’s tough to have faith in Eflin to keep throwing up low scoring games.

The pick

Another road divisional dog lean in this one. Miami has the better pitcher on the mound and the lineup that seems to be seeing the ball better lately. Lopez has been able to limit baserunners all season and is in the midst of a 2.68 ERA/3.01 FIP stretch over his last 47 innings pitched. Eflin, on the other hand, has already seemed to let the jams catch up to him, as he’s currently posting just a 4.96 ERA/4.45 FIP over his last 33 innings pitched. I have Miami projected to win the first 5 outright, so with them catching plus-money you better believe that’s where I’m looking. Miami F5RL (+.5) -130 and F5 +110.