MLB Best Bets for Sunday (8/22)

Our guy Patty Matz had a prior commitment today, so he asked me to jump in and cover the Prop article for Sunday. As a company man, I graciously accepted the handoff and am going to run with this. I have a few Strikeout props that may be going up later in the day once I get a chance to see the lineups teams are putting out. Sunday is a big rest day for many teams as they usually travel after the games today and they use it to give a few regulars some rest. This is why I want to wait on the strikeout props. 

The prop I do not want to wait on today is the HR prop and I have one I love for Sunday. Camden Yards in Baltimore is a plus park for power hitters. This is one of those places where HRs fly out at a rate above league average. The Orioles pitcher today, John Means, has allowed 1.94 HR/9 this year. That is a massive number. For his career, he is giving up home runs to right-handed batters about once every 4.5 innings, also a horrendous number. Atlanta has two guys that are plus hitters against LHP and have the pop to take Means deep in Baltimore today. 

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Ozzie Albies is currently +340 on FanDuel to go yard today. He is as low as +230 on some other sites, so I really love this price on him. Albies has a 149 wRC+ score for 2021 and a .400 wOBA against left-handed pitching. He also has a more than respectable .277 ISO score. Albies is not a big-time home run hitter, but he’s facing a guy who serves them up in a ballpark where balls tend to fly out of. That gives him implied odds of 22.7% to go yard today. In this matchup, I project him closer to 28%, closer to the +250 number we see elsewhere. 

Jorge Soler is the other guy I had some interest in today, but his numbers are already moving and not in the direction we want. On Caesar’s he is already down to just a +150 to hit a homer today. That puts his chances of going yard at 40%. I do not disagree, but that’s not a number I am willing to take. The best payout I can find right now on Soler going yard is +260 on both Unibet and SugarHouse/BetRivers. That’s a tad under 30% chance and more in line with reality. Unlike Albies, I do not think the value here is great, and I certainly would not touch that +150 number. At +250 or better I think you get fair value here. If it creeps to +275 by game time, I would be more willing to take it. Otherwise, I likely stick with Albies only or play a ½ unit on each and profit if either goes yard.