MLB Best Bets for Independence Day


Independence Day brings fireworks, parades, a time to reflect on our nation’s nearly 250 years of history … and one of the best baseball slates of the entire year.

Because it’s a holiday, we of course get a full 15 games, with every team in action, and the league spaced the games out — the first game starts at 11:05 a.m. ET (Mets at Nationals), and we’ll have action until late at night, with first pitch between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers scheduled for 9:10 p.m.

With so much action at our fingertips Thursday, the FTN team decided to offer up their favorite bets for the holiday slate. Check them out below.

MLB Best Bets for the Fourth of July

Guardians Over 4.5 Runs (-140, BetMGM)

Bet by: MLBdream

  • Guardians average third-most runs at home 5.14
  • FTN MLB Model projected 4.98 runs 
  • Guardians 120 wRC+ vs LHP last 30 days – ninth best 
  • Guardians fifth-most HR vs LHP this season

Boston Over 4.5 Runs (-110, DraftKings)

Bet by: Chris Meaney

  • The Red Sox rank eighth in runs scored over the last 30 days
  • Over that span, they rank third in wOBA, fifth in wRC+, second in AVG and OBP
  • They scored 15 runs in the first two games of the series vs MIA
  • MIA SP Kyle Tyler has issued four runs and five walks in 10.2 innings this season
  • Tyler has an 85% contact rate over 27 career innings

Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-135, DraftKings)

Bet by: Prop God

  • Rafael Devers vs RHP in 2024: .307 AVG, .643 SLG, 1.043 OPS, 15 HRs, 35 RBIs
  • Rafael Devers L7 Games: .444 AVG, 1.000 SLG, 4 HRs, 10 RBIs
  • Rafael Devers vs Kyle Tyler’s top 2 Pitches to LHB:
    • CUT: .241 AVG, 7 Hits, 3 2B, 1 HR
    • CB: .280 AVG, 7 Hits, 3 HR
  • Devers 2+ Hits+Runs+RBIs in L8/9 games 
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