KBO DFS: DraftKings slate preview for July 11

If you haven’t been grinding KBO in the early hours with me every morning, I will be posting some articles over the next couple weeks exclusively on FTN to catch you up to speed. These will include top hitters on each team, the mess that is every team’s bullpen, and some GPP lineup reviews. For now, a few things to know about my preferences in KBO DFS:

• I have a huge man crush on Chang Moo Ko (NCD pitcher) and Jin Sung Kang (NCD 1B/OF), so get used to it.
• I usually hate playing chalk in tournaments, but there has been some success in locking in chalk pitchers in GPPs and then targeting lower owned stacks as the bullpens have been horrendous this year.
• I am still convinced the biggest edge is waking up 30 minutes before lock and checking weather and starting lineups. Starting lineups don’t come out until about 5 a.m. ET (on a regular slate) only 30 minutes before lock. Having a plan for quick pivot options and glancing at weather updates is key. (You will be amazed at the amount of entries that have non-starters rostered night in and night out.)
• Please make sure to check my twitter (@DFSchaser) for more thoughts and any updates as the day progresses. Starting pitchers are only projected and could change from the time this article is written to when teams make announcements.

Victory laps are common in baseball (as well are duds) because of the amount of variance in the sport, but it doesn’t mean we can’t take one or two this season. On the most recent slate, we crushed the slate from almost every angle — Dinos had their lowest ownership on the season and scored 12 runs! Chris Flexen was the highest-scoring pitcher and Chan Gyu Lim was an easy fade. Mel Rojas Jr. and Baek Ho Kang homered and all my top stacks scored at least 6 runs (for a combined 36). OK, victory lap over, let’s get into Saturday morning’s slate.

Projected starting pitchers

Aaron Brooks — Not much to say here other than he is the clear SP1 option on Saturday’s slate in my opinion. He faced these same Heroes two weeks ago and had a solid outing for 8 strikeouts for 22.7 DK points. He is averaging 7 strikeouts per start over his last four starts and he has faced the NC Dinos (2x), Heroes, and Giants over that stretch — no easy task. Kiwoom is not an ideal matchup, but Brooks has shown through this point in the season he can pretty much handle any KBO lineup sporting a 2.87 FIP (2nd best in KBO behind Chang Mo Koo) and a 1.08 WHIP (fourth-best).

Jong Hoon Park — Take away Park’s June 25 outing, where he got lit up by the Doosan Bears, and there is a case for him as one of the best pitchers over the past month in KBO. Not counting the start against Doosan, he has 6 or more strikeouts in his last five starts (hence his solid 24.7% K strikeout rate). Here, he faces the most strikeout-prone team in the KBO, the Hanwha Eagles. I see no reason why Park shouldn’t motor through this lineup. Even if he gives up 2-3 runs, which he is prone to do, he has 9-strikeout (or more) upside.

Mike Wright — I think I am going to fade Wright on this slate. The price tag doesn’t allow me to get the big bats I want to roster, and he has a limited ceiling here against the Twins. We saw Friday morning a better strikeout pitcher, Drew Rucinski, strike out only 3 through six innings of work against the same projected lineup. The Twins just really don’t strike out that much. I am not saying I am rostering Twins here, I just don’t think Wright pays off his $9,500 salary.

Other SP2 cash options: Chae Heung Choi (pitching really well this season, but Wiz have some power which is making me nervous — check out my twitter Friday night for more thoughts); Min Ho Lee (decent potential value at $7,300, but the Dinos are finding their strike again… so I am going to pass here)

Jin Wook Kim — Making his first appearance this season, the Hanwha Eagles send the 20-year-old to the mound. I don’t have projections for him because he only has 6.2 innings over the past two seasons.

Here is limited data I could find on this kid courtesy of mykbostats.com: 

Look, 4 strikeouts in 6.2 innings is not bad… but all four came in 2018. I really have no idea how this kid is going to pitch. The most likely scenario is he comes in and pitches 2-3 innings, gives up a few runs and maybe grabs two strikeouts. Then the second-worst bullpen in the league comes in and pitches 6-7 innings… I haven’t looked yet, but I think the few of us in the industry who write up KBO on a daily basis will probably be pushing our readers to stack the SK Wyverns against Kim. I think that is definitely the safest take of the night. The reason I am struggling with it is the SK Wyverns are not a good-hitting team. They have a team batting average of .242 and a team OPS of .672, second-worst in the KBO only to Hanwha. SK has two hitters who are above league average: Jamie Romak (1B/OF, $4,500) and Jeong Choi (3B/SS, $5,400). These two players should garner insane ownership in both cash and GPP contests Saturday. The safe play is to roster them (which is easy with their dual-position eligibility), but the sharp play might be to fade them all together. SK stack is a hesitant no for me tonight, but I think Romak and Choi are viable plays in all formats.

Fade: Mike Wright

Hitting stacks to target

• Doosan Bears — I realize this is their fourth straight night on my stacks to target (get used to it when they are on the road), but they have an another great matchup in Se Woong Park who has a 1.73 HR/9. I like the big bats to go deep here, but you are going to have to be creative with your salary cap. The Giants bullpen is better than the KBO average, but still not great.
• Samsung Lions — Not the best-hitting team, but they face Hyeong Jun So, who I love, love, love to stack against. They took him for 7 runs last month in just 4.2 innings and tacked on 5 more once they got into the bullpen.
• KIA Tigers and NC Dinos — should see limited ownership in an above-average matchups. Give me some Preston Tucker and Aaron Altherr shares please.

Underowned: I don’t think ownership should be two much of a concern tonight, other than Romak and Choi from SK Wyverns. I think there are lots of good spots tonight, so play the best plays (aka see my projections over in the FTN Optimizer).