Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
I’ve written up my 2023 MLB futures bets, both on the hitting and pitching side, so the only thing left to do before Opening Day is discuss a few of the rule changes MLB instituted this offseason. Some will have a bigger impact than others so let’s focus on the three that should affect the game the most: pitch clock, defensive shift and the increase in base size.
If you’ve caught any Spring Training action, you’ve certainly noticed a change in pace and the fact that baseball now has a clock! Pitchers have a 15-second timer in between pitches with the bases empty, while the batter has to be in the batter’s box and engaged with the pitcher by the eight-second mark. When runners are on base, pitchers have 20 seconds in between pitches. If a pitcher violates the timer, an automatic ball is recorded. If the batter is in violation, it’s an automatic strike. Batters receive one time-out per plate appearance, while pitchers are allowed two disengagements per PA. A disengagement is classified as a pickoff attempt or stepping off the rubber — we’ll get into this more below.
Teams had a tough time adjusting to the changes early on in the Spring, and we even saw a game between the Braves and Red Sox end without a pitch being thrown in a 3-2 count with the bases loaded and two outs in a tie game. I don’t love the idea of a strikeout occurring without a pitch being thrown. But we’ve already seen teams adjust to the new rules. Teams were averaging over one infraction each per game early on, but that has declined dramatically over the last few weeks of Spring Training. So far, this appears to be an advantage to the pitchers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up affecting a starter’s stamina as they work deeper into games. That is certainly something I’ll be watching for the first month of the season.
The biggest impact is going to be on the basepaths. MLB decided to enlarge the bases from 15 square inches to 18 inches — mostly for safety reasons. Through Sunday, we’ve seen a 7% increase in stolen base success rate this spring from last year’s Spring Training. I think that’s mostly attributed to pitchers being limited in their pickoff attempts, but the base size obviously doesn’t hurt.
Defensive shift limits should also help boost offense and provide fans with more defensive web gems. Teams must have two infielders on each side of the second base bag and infielders aren’t allowed to position themselves on the outfield grass. This will certainly help left-handed hitters who have been facing an extreme shift over the last few years. I’m sure Rowdy Tellez and Corey Seager are boosted, as they should see more base hits through the right side of the infield in 2023. We’ve seen an increase in batting average on balls in play so far this spring, especially with left-handed hitters. MLB has been trying to get away from the three true outcomes (home runs, strikeouts and walks) for years and this change should help accomplish that.
Overall, these rule changes should create a more fast-paced and entertaining game for fans. Personally, as someone who lives in the DC area, I’m looking forward to being able to watch more west coast games in full, instead of passing out in the middle innings. More baseball is always better, so for now I’m on board with the changes.
