Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
How important is it to find a groove? Have you ever stopped to consider this notion? Plenty of sportscasters have recycled this term in multiple ways. “He’s in a groove right now” or “he needs to get in a groove here” expresses to us that finding the groove means all of your energy is aligned toward elite performance as a result of the groove discovery.
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If you continue reading this, you will see how far down the rabbit hole my fantasy baseball analysis can go. That means each Monday you actively select myself and the entire fantasy baseball team at FTN as your river guides as we work in unison navigating the currents of the white water rapids of fantasy toward your ultimate prize … a league championship. Don’t try to be perfect though. Just ask Drew Rasmussen. Too soon?
Time After Time
Pie Oh My
For those who play in leagues hosted on the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) website, Sunday evening at 10 PM ET is when they run the FAAB bids for player additions. From the first week of April until the first week in October, you will ALWAYS find me pouring over my (six this year) different NFBC FAAB leagues as I tinker up to the last moment just like Rodney Ruxin. Unexpected Atlanta call-up Vaughn Grissom was the FAAB centerpiece for many managers who still had the scratch to pony up some dough. As I increased and decreased Grissom bids, I kept thinking of Tony Soprano at the horse track taking a big rake from hall of fame fictional scumbag Ralph Cifaretto. However, not everybody has the fazools left in their FAAB budget in mid-August. That’s when the savvy manager sacrifices (or has no choice) the big Grissom-type bids for cheaper, but equally effective plays. Manuel Margot is a great example of this concept. I had $26 left in my Main Event FAAB coming into Sunday night. I won Margot with $5 outdoing the runner-up by $2. There are no certainties, but I will put up Margot’s stats versus Grissom’s rest of season (ROS) for a healthy wager. Margot comes off the IL this Saturday, August 20.
Where’d You Come From?
Just like Frank in “It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia”, I’m still trying to figure out where Joey Meneses came from! Dude clobbered a dong in every game of the three-game set at Wrigley. To close out the week, he has five consecutive two-hit games! That’s a special week Mr. Meneses had. Is it real? Who the hell knows! I know he has a series with the Cubs again on Monday in D.C. Meneses is a 30-year-old who made his MLB debut August 2 after Josh Bell was included in the Juan Soto haul from San Diego. Meneses set the tone from the get-go with a yambo in his debut. Meneses was the 2018 MVP of the International League in AAA with the Phillies affiliate, the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, a year after current Phillies 1B Rhys Hoskins won the same award in 2017. In 536 PA in 2018 Meneses stroked 23 taters with a .311/.360/.510 triple slash for a robust 143 wrC+ (100 is average). He was released by Philly after the season at 26 years old. He then left for Nippon Professional Baseball playing for everybody’s favorite NPB team, the Orix Buffaloes, for one season in 2019. After being cut by the Red Sawks in 2021, he signed a minor league deal with the Nats. Fast forward to today, and we are witnessing THE epitome of why baseball can be as unique and uplifting as any sport in the world. There have been flashes in the late-season pan a few times over the last five years with Hoskins’ epic run to close 2017 being one of them. Will Joey Meneses be this year’s Aristides Aquino? No. He will be better because he can hit for average too! I’m buying Meneses ROS, and you should too, even in shallower 10-teamers.
Take Warning
The bolts of rage sent through my very being on Friday evening as I entered the tunnel between Detroit, Michigan and Windsor, Ontario, were both stunning and harsh. I get pretty impressive service even in the bowels of that tunnel running underneath the Detroit River (not bad T-Mobile!). I had just left the Lions/Falcons first preseason affair at Ford Field when the notification rose up on my phone without warning: Fernando Tatis Jr. suspended 80 games for PED use! I’ve seen and performed a few baffling maneuvers in my days on this planet. When I was 15, I marched to the World War I anthem “Over There” in my soccer cleats on the front counter of the local Arbys during broad daylight. I was fired shortly after that. I also witnessed Kordell Stewart’s Hail Mary to Michael Westbrook as time expired to stun the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines on September 24, 1994. For my 18th birthday, my mom let me pick an authentic NFL jersey between either Ryan Leaf or Peyton Manning before their rookie year began in 1998. I went with Ryan Leaf. See? I’ve made mistakes and witnessed plenty more of them. Yet, the Tatis PED news trying to sneak past us during the so-called Friday evening news dump was every bit as stupefying as anything you can see in any other place. This is good news, though, if you’ve been rostering Ha-Seong Kim, who’s hitting .299 with a 122 wRC+ since July 1. So there’s that.
Steele Reserve
The Cubs’ season record is bogus (47-66 entering Monday). But doesn’t it feel like they have offered a plethora of fantasy values all season long? From Christopher Morel to Patrick Wisdom, focused fantasy managers know there has been production to be mined on Chicago’s north side this season. The Cubs may have failed as a unit this year, but players like Justin Steele have been valid pickups even in 12-teamers. For the season, Steele has a 1.41 WHIP. On the surface that stinks, but after some game-log exploring, I see that Steele’s eight hits surrendered in his last outing was a season high. His previous high was seven (accomplished four times), but otherwise he has limited a lot of hard contact. Steele’s walks will scare off a lot of people faster than the brute squad ever could. He’s surrendered 43 in 101.2 IP with his game high of four being equaled four times total. The best result I found spelunking deep into his game log was the earned runs. On May 26, he gave up a season-high seven earned in where else, but Cincinnati. On June 23, he coughed up six earned at PNC Park. Finally on April 19, at home against the Rays, he gave up four earned runs. In 18 other starts this year, he has only allowed three earned runs or less. Three earned or less is solid! In nine of those 18 starts, he gave up one or none. In six starts since July 1, he sports a 10.97 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, 1.97 ERA and a 2.81 FIP. Steele lines up for two starts this week, one at Washington, and the other at home versus the Brew Crew. Steele is a no-brainer if you need Ks, but you might be inclined to get more than that down the stretch. Steele should be added in 12-teamers for sure with possible exceptions made for 10-teamers based on your needs.
Screenshots
LaMonte Wade Jr. – I picked up Wade in my NFBC Main Event after the MLB All-Star Break. He didn’t play consistently enough, though, to warrant starting him. He ripped a homer in back-to-back games against the Pirates over the weekend. He also has four over the last eight days. He’s a lefty who can hammer RHP. His last five starts have been as the DH. If there’s a righty-heavy week, add Wade Jr. for power.
José Leclerc – A moment in time that I waited for happened Sunday. The Rangers used José Leclerc as their closer to secure the save! I have been pushing his name as the closer from the moment he returned from Tommy John surgery. Jonathan Hernández got the save Saturday night, though, and was unavailable Sunday after pitching three times in four days. Leclerc isn’t missing bats like he did in the past either. Joe Barlow also likely returns Tuesday. I’m rooting for Leclerc, but I want to win money more than I want to root. Be cautious.
Emmanuel Rivera – I have been waiting to see Rivera get regular PA for a while now. He hit in the 2-hole in three straight starts beginning with his 3-5 with 3 RBI outing Thursday at home against the Bucs. Rivera plays 3B with guest spots at DH. Arizona has players like Josh Rojas, Daulton Varsho and Ketel Marte who can move around the diamond to accommodate their lineup. In 237 PA, Rivera has a 114 wRC+. I would love to see him in it daily the rest of the way. His bat is magic. Add him in 14-teamers and deeper for now.
Hunter Harvey – When you get an inkling that a guy will get a chance to increase his role, do it. Just don’t let that feeling be Carl Edwards Jr. as the closer in Washington. His BB/9 are still too high to trust him (5.93 since July 1) to close games. There also aren’t enough whiffs, with only two on seven swings in his save Saturday over San Diego. Go with Hunter Harvey instead. After so many injuries derailed him in Baltimore, he’s hitting 99.2 MPH with 2.16 BB/9, a 28% K rate, 3.24 ERA and 1.68 FIP. He will close soon!
Jake Fraley – When the season started, I really thought Fraley would have an above-average season after being moved to Cincinnati. Injury problems have limited him greatly, but that’s the past. Now he is healthy with ample playing time available in a ballpark that needs no introduction. Nick Senzel injured his hammy and really wasn’t doing jack squat anyways. Fraley hit leadoff the last two games and is poised to hold down that spot due to his excellent plate discipline skills. Barring injury, Fraley is a difference-maker ROS.
Yonny Chirinos – The mere fact that Chirinos is planning to be back soon for the Rays says a lot about Yonny’s resolve. He had TJ surgery first, then as he prepared to return from that, he broke his elbow! That’s brutal. Chirinos has been rehabbing in the minors with his latest start in Single-A Charleston. He went three innings, throwing 49 pitches with 35 of them for strikes and no walks. Chirinos is a ratio preservationist, so consider stashing him in 14-teamers and deeper. He could return by the beginning of September.
C.J. Abrams – Poor Luis García of the Nationals. He hurt his groin and hit the IL. I had high hopes for Garcia this year, but he hasn’t delivered more with the power. His injury paves the way for Abrams, one of the prizes from the Juan Soto sweepstakes, to start paying dividends. There is no impedance like there was in San Diego. Abrams is clear to swing away and run freely on the base paths. There should be no hesitation to play Abrams now. Even in 12-teamers, I am giving the green light. If you need steals, put Abrams in.
