Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’ve made it! The Midsummer Classic is here. The MLB All-Star Game brings up fond memories of my youth, as one of my earliest memories was the 1989 ASG that my dad taped on our BetaMax recorder, that 4-year-old me then proceeded to watch virtually every night for the rest of the summer, until the Giants mercifully made the playoffs and we could switch back to live baseball again. Something about that Bo Jackson leadoff home run set the tone for a magical summer evening, and as a 4-year-old without any impulse control, I simply could not get enough.
In case you are not an old head like me, here’s the clip:
It has everything. Ronald Reagan. Vin Scully paraphrases Frank Pentangeli’s would-be assassin from Godfather II. Bo hitting a massive dinger off of Giants starter Rick “Big Daddy” Reuschel. I actually just texted with my dad about it, and we immediately both remembered a call Vin Scully made on a line drive to left field caught by the Red Sox Mike Greenwell. Is there anything else you could text your dad about from 35 years ago and both of you would be able to recall exactly what happened?
How can you not be romantic about baseball?
Perhaps because the ASG has so much romance to it, it is also not going to be a bastion of analytical triumph the way our regular slates are. And that’s OK! We can embrace the variance and still try to do our best to ascertain where ceiling outcomes are going to be likeliest and construct our lineups accordingly.
They are potentially not quite as reliable for a game like this in which there is *so* much variance, but nevertheless we encourage you to utilize the FTN tools at your disposal whenever possible.
2024 MLB All-Star Game DFS Tips and Picks
Game Structure
Let’s go over a bit of a primer on how the game differs from a regular MLB game, in case this is your first time watching an MLB All-Star Game or your first time playing DFS for one.
- The pitchers don’t pitch much, almost exclusively a single inning for starters, sometimes not even that much for relievers.
- Position players will get 1-2 plate appearances and be replaced. Pinch-hitting and defensive subs happen with much more frequency than in regular baseball in an effort to get every player in the game.
- If the game is tied after 9 innings, the tiebreaker is a home run derby with coaches pitching to players. I have no idea if these stats are counted and neither do any of you, because this format was adopted in 2022 and we haven’t seen an extra-inning game since then.
- Other than starters, not every pitcher will pitch, and not every position player will get an at-bat. If you roster a non-starter, you are absolutely risking a zero at that position, although there is some predictability as to whom will be subbed in for whom.
- The AL is the “home team” and thus will not have at-bats if leading in the ninth inning, meaning American League bench bats risk missing out on an inning.
Edges
AL Shortstop Logjam
With the game being played in Texas, Bruce Bochy as the manager, and Corey Seager being added on as an injury replacement, it will be interesting to see how the AL SS position is managed. Bobby Witt Jr. would have otherwise been one of the most popular nonstarters to roster as the guy he’s replacing (Gunnar Henderson) is hitting second, and so Witt would have had 2 or even 3 plate appearances after pinch-hitting for Gunnar depending on how the game played out. Since Seager is likely to be given at least one plate appearance as a hometown player, that diminishes Witt’s upside a great deal, and I am likely going to shy away from rostering him for this reason.
Avoiding SPs
It can be very tempting to want to lock in some points by using a starting pitcher, but it is catastrophically capping your upside to do so, as the maximum a starting pitcher can score is 8.25, and that’s if they strike out the side in their one inning of the work. Can you imagine Paul Skenes striking out Steven Kwan, Gunnard Henderson and Juan Soto in order? Can you imagine Corbin Burnes doing so to Ketel Marte, Shohei Ohtani and Trea Turner? I would put each of those occurring less than 20% of the time, and even if you get that outcome that is going to score you fewer points than a batter who hits an RBI double and then later comes around to score himself. To me, almost every starting batter is a better play than either starting pitcher, and most non-starting batters are better than the starting pitchers as well, once you factor in rostership.
Lack of NL Pitching
Of the six All Stars deemed unavailable for the NL, five are pitchers. That means the NL is losing Tyler Glasnow, Zack Wheeler, Chris Sale, Ranger Suárez and Ryan Helsley, and replacing them with Max Fried, Hunter Greene, Cristopher Sánchez and Kyle Finnegan. Nothing against those guys, but this is a pretty clear step down. The NL bullpen was already a bit on the questionable side with both Matt Strahm and Jeff Hoffman on the roster, and the notable absence of Raisel Iglesias and other unquestioned closers like David Bednar and Camilo Doval. Compared to an AL bullpen that includes Emmanuel Clase, Mason Miller and Andrés Muñoz, this is a clear edge to the AL, translating into AL hitting reserves being a key place for us to find value at low rostership, as they will have the best matchups.
Strategy
We have to project a gamescript theory in order to come up with a strategy, and yours very well may be different than mine. That is totally OK, and in fact preferred. Would be pretty boring if we all thought the same stuff all the time.
So here’s what I’ve got:
- 1st inning: Corbin Burnes vs. Paul Skenes
- 2nd inning: Tarik Skubal vs. Shōta Imanaga
- 3rd inning: Garrett Crochet vs. Logan Webb
- 4th inning: Cole Ragans vs. Max Fried
- 5th inning: Seth Lugo vs. Hunter Greene
- 6th inning: Tanner Houck vs. Reynaldo López
- 7th inning and beyond: Massive advantage AL pitching
What we see is that the AL starters will roll out 3 LHPs, and so if I’m using NL starting hitters (I might, as Burnes is a bit more hittable than Skenes), I might trend toward RHBs who would likely hit in the second or third inning. This would lead us to two Home Run Derby semifinalists, Teoscar Hernández and Alec Bohm, along with the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar. HR Derby champ Hernández is also the cheapest starter on the slate, at only $3,600, and will likely be immensely popular due to the recency bias of the Derby and the low price.
You might also look to William Contreras, as the NL rosters only two catchers whereas the AL could see either Salvador Perez or David Fry enter for Adley Rutschman upon his departure, with whomever does not replace Adley needing to compete with Anthony Santander to replace Yordan Álvarez.
So, generally speaking, I will be using primarily right-handed starting hitters from the NL, and primarily reserve hitters from the AL, with exceptions for extremely high event NL reserves like Elly De La Cruz.
Again, you may think the game plays out much differently, and you could be right, or we could both be wrong. In the end, you want to make sure your lineup tells a story, and if that story comes to fruition, we receive the maximum payoff for it.
Good luck, and may we all find the joy that my 4-year-old self discovered 35 years ago with Tuesday’s game.
