Fantasy Baseball Roster Management

It’s almost here. Fantasy baseball draft month for almost everyone is March, and for me, that means it’s NFBC Main Event time. The first drafts will take place March 14, and the last is scheduled for March 30. Drafts can be entered in for a live event in New York City March 17-19, in Las Vegas March 23-26, or almost any day in between the 14^th and the 30^th as an online drafter. So make sure you have all your equipment available on your selected date or you might not be fully protected.

Target Practice

In any fantasy baseball league, just like in life in general, you need to know what you’re trying to accomplish, or it’s unlikely you’ll get there. Otherwise, you can fall victim to doing things somewhat out of order, and you might not hit what you’re aiming at.

So what are the targets that we want to shoot for? I like to start out by knowing the 80% targets for the Main Event historically. Of course, each year is different, and we certainly could look at much higher stolen base totals with the new rules. But if you’re trying to estimate the starting point, you could do a lot worse than the 80% overall targets, which equals the statistic that would have earned you 80% of the overall amount in that category. Last year there were 705 teams in the Main Event, so this is the amount that garnered 141^st place in a particular category – or worth 564 points in the overall scoring. This means that in most leagues, you’d be getting about 12 out of 15 rotisserie points in each of 10 categories, which would give you 120 points in the league and probably a good spot on the overall leaderboard. (Bob Cramutola, Scott Jenstad, Phil Dussault, Mark Srebro, Vlad Sedler and Steven Weimer have each assured me that they will be up in the top 50 overall and don’t need any help from me on targets, but for the rest of us, it’s useful to have a sense of the stats needed to compete.)

The first two columns on the left show the total MLB stats for 2022 and 2021. It shows us where the stats are heading for all of baseball. It’s no surprise to many that the offensive stats are down pretty much across the board in 2022. Runs scored have been off 6.2% in 2021 (from 2019) and then again down 5.4% more in 2022 from 2021. Unless the ball is bouncier than in years past, I’m not expecting a return to 23,000 runs. Home runs are the biggest declining category, down over 12% in each of the past two years. In the full year 2019, MLB recorded 6,776 big flies and last year we just barely reached 5,200. Batting average is down as well of course, but not off as much as the homers. Still, it is amazing to think that the average big-league hitter hit just .243, but Rob Manfred has a plan for that, right? A limit on shifting should improve matters, but I’d be surprised if we got back to the 2019 level of .252. Only stolen bases showed improvement over the recent period, with a significant 12.3% gain in 2022. Of course, this should trend even higher with the new pickoffs and pitch clock rules.

Pitching stats, of course, reflect these same shifts for the most part. Strikeouts are slightly down and saves slightly up, but the ERA and WHIP across MLB are now down to 3.96 and 1.266 respectively, markedly lower than 2019 (4.49 and 1.334). 

Now if we examine the 80% Main Event overall targets over the past two seasons, we see these MLB trends for our fantasy teams. Scoring is down, home runs are way down, while steals rebounded in 2022. And just as in MLB as a whole, we saw a slight downtick in strikeouts and a marked decline in ERA this past season. It’s still hard for me to adjust to the fact that .256 is worth 80% of the overall points in the Main Event batting average category, but I’m just going to have to get used to it. The point is, if you can hit these targets in the Main Event or any 15-team roto league, you will be in great shape. Just don’t make the mistake of thinking that (for example) even the lower 273 home run target is easy, though. That’s still 19.5 home runs for every one of 14 hitting slots – including two catchers. In addition, the strikeout total is lower at 1,347 – but that’s about 150 strikeouts for each of nine pitching positions – and don’t forget you’ll usually be starting two relievers each week who have a lower strikeout ceiling. 

Free Agents Cost FAAB

In the beginning of the season, every manager has $1,000 of FAAB. So the inclination of every fantasy manager is to feel flush and to spend relatively freely. For example, this was my approach last year:

However, this results in spending like you see below – when Main Event teams are spending $60 and up on the early season Sundays in FAAB. In fact, in the last two years combined there have been three $80-plus weeks of on average spending, and 11 weeks over the two years when Main Event teams averaged $60 and up (including a $59.57 week which I rounded up to $60). See the highlighted weeks below:

So what is the result of this spending pattern? Most teams have less than $100 of FAAB left after Week 22 (and less than $200 after Week 18), when there are still five weeks of FAAB left in the season (and nine weeks left after Week 18). While it is true that you don’t need especially large amounts because everyone is low on resources, it is still helpful to have some resources at your disposal in the latter stages of the season. 

So What Should I Do?

First of all, don’t panic. (I always like how this is offered as solid advice during sporting events and in movies so I’m including it here.) Next, develop a budget that you will really try to stick to. It will be difficult, but you can do it! See my suggested FAAB spending plan and use it as a starting point – it will have you spend at a decent rate early but still hold enough back for the late stages of the season. The key is that when you are entering bids on multiple players, you must still be cognizant of the total amount you might spend. For example, let’s say in Week 2 you are trying to add three players. You put all three in for $30 or so for your first-choice free agents, and let’s suppose you win all three. You say to yourself, “This is great, I’m well under my $50 suggested budget. I’m a FAAB master!” But then you win all three bids and have spent $90 in Week 2. Make sure that you really are willing to go over budget for those exact player additions if you are successful – don’t do it for short-term fixes. This might help:

• Short-term additions — one- or two-week holds (10% or less of weekly budget)
• Medium additions — could hold for a month or six weeks (33% of weekly budget)
• Big acquisitions — expect to hold all season (up to 200% of weekly budget, but understand you can only do this 3-4 times per season 

So my suggestion for the base FAAB code is detailed above. Fantasy managers still need to spend early — these are the potential FAAB pickups that can alter a season. But one must be careful to maintain resources for the entire 27 weeks. Because injuries, demotions, and downright poor play occur all throughout the year, and FAAB is our only remedy to fix what ails your team. Many good additions can be made — even early in the season — for low bid amounts. Don’t be fooled into thinking that you have to go big on every bid. Having said all that, there is a time and place for large bids — but it should be on a player that you expect to hold for a long duration. And please remember one thing about this proposed FAAB code: