Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report: An Injury Return to Stash (5/28)

Welcome to Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride, er, the Bullpen Report. This season has certainly felt like a roller coaster when it comes to closers and save situations leaguewide. I can count only a handful of teams whose ninth innings have unfolded exactly as we thought they would before the season started. And it’s still only May. Onward!

This article includes saves and holds totals for all games through Monday, May 26.

Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report

News and Notes

Chicago Cubs

A week ago, Porter Hodge hit the injured list with an oblique strain. That night, Daniel Palencia received the first opportunity to lock down a Cubs’ win but failed to hold the lead. Clearly, this was not enough to deter Craig Counsell from using Palencia in the ninth inning again, as he received not only the next save chance for the Cubs last Wednesday night but also earned back-to-back saves the past two nights, cementing himself in the closer role for the time being.

Palencia has emerged as the best reliever on the roster so far this season, posting a 1.93 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and a nice 19:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18.2 innings. The 9.7% walk rate is still high, but encouraging to see, especially after small samples in 2023 and 2024 yielded a walk rate of nearly 14%. Palencia is averaging 99 miles per hour on the fastball, which is important because it’s a pitch he throws almost 75% of the time.

But hold your nose, here goes the cold water. I don’t believe Palencia is a long-term answer for the Cubs. The surface results have been great, but there are some warning signs lurking beneath the surface. First, a .178 BABIP is completely unsustainable. The 82% strand rate is likely due for regression, as well as the low 5.9% HR/FB ratio. Palencia doesn’t generate a lot of swings outside the zone, and his 78.4% contact rate and 10.6% swinging strike rate are not at all impressive or indicative of a lockdown reliever. Enjoy this run while it lasts, but I believe the ride will eventually come to an end. That could happen sooner, whenever Hodge can return from the injured list, or later should the Cubs seek to acquire a veteran closer in trade, as I suspect they will.