Fantasy Baseball ADP Market Report (Feb. 7)

This article is the second in a series focusing on prominent risers and fallers in fantasy baseball average draft position based on completed drafts at the NFBC. Once again, we will look at those players whose ADP rose or fell materially in Draft Champions leagues, which are 15-team, 50-round draft-and-hold contests. Soon, we will shift our focus to Online Championship leagues, which are 12-team, 30-round contests with FAAB.

The purpose of these articles is to ensure that fantasy managers are not only aware of which players are rising and falling in ADP, but also to understand why these changes are occurring so that potential market efficiencies can be evaluated and exploited.

For this article, the “old” ADP is taken from 36 DC drafts that were completed between Dec. 22 and Jan. 12 and compared to the “new” ADP data from 17 DC drafts that were completed between Jan. 13 and Feb. 3. To capture meaningful market trends, we examine risers and fallers based on the percentage of ADP movement.

Fantasy Baseball ADP Market Report

Top ADP Risers – Pitchers

Most of the big ADP gainers among pitchers are relievers whose fantasy values appear on the upswing as fantasy managers attempt to navigate teams’ ever-changing bullpens. Following physicals that raised concerns with not one but two teams, Jeff Hoffman signed a three-year contract with Toronto, presumably to serve as the team’s closer. Following the signing, news came out that Hoffman had multi-year contract offers with Baltimore and Atlanta, only to have those deals fall through following physicals that apparently raised concerns. To be fair, those teams reportedly were interested in Hoffman as a starting pitcher and still were willing to sign him following the physicals, but only at a lower salary. Hoffman made 68 appearances in 2024, and following the signing, managers appear comfortable drafting him in the seventh round as a clear-cut closer. There is no public information as to precisely what concerned the Orioles and Braves, and so managers will need to speculate as to just how risky it is to draft Hoffman. The only thing we know for certain is that Hoffman appeared healthy in 2024 and was a dominant relief pitcher for Philadelphia (66.1 IP, 89 K, 3 W, 10 SV, 2.17 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 27.5% K-BB%).

Ryan Pressly’s ADP skyrocketed upon the news that Houston was seeking to trade him to the Chicago Cubs. Pressly ultimately decided to waive his no-trade clause, and the deal was consummated. Pressly is expected to serve as the Cubs’ primary closer, although incumbent Porter Hodge also may receive some save opportunities. With respect to the above table, please note that the news of Pressly being traded is very recent and, therefore, the new ADP depicted does not reflect the full rise in ADP; in very recent drafts Pressly has frequently been drafted in the first 120 picks.

On Jan. 6, Chris Martin signed a one-year contract with Texas. Looking over the Rangers’ bullpen, many managers apparently believe that Martin is in line to close games for Texas and his ADP has risen accordingly. The Rangers’ approach to this offseason has been puzzling – the team has large investments in Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and Jacob deGrom, and this offseason added Joc Pederson and re-signed Nathan Eovaldi. Only one year removed from winning the World Series, Texas is – or should be – in a “win now” mode, and yet the team has allowed Kirby Yates and José Leclerc to leave for different teams and failed to re-sign David Robertson as of this writing. Thus, at least for now, Chris Martin does appear the most likely pitcher on the Rangers’ roster to serve as closer, but there are at least a few reasons for caution here: Martin will turn 39 this June and has only 14 MLB career saves (his season-high saves total is four, in 2019). Martin’s rise in ADP is warranted, and he could very well start the season as the Rangers’ closer, but managers should proceed with caution, because Robertson, Kenley Jansen, Kyle Finnegan and Craig Kimbrel (among others) are still unsigned and one of them could sign with Texas and usurp Martin as closer.

Similar to Martin, Jorge López’s ADP has climbed since signing with Washington. While not assured of the closer role, many managers reviewing the Nationals’ depth chart expect López to get the first crack at saves with, at least as of now, seemingly only Derek Law and Jose A. Ferrer to beat out. In his nine-year career, López only has 31 career saves, although 23 of them were accumulated in 2022 when he served as the Orioles’ closer for part of the season. López lacks traditional closer skills (for instance, a 20% career K%), but did pitch well for most of the 2024 season. It is not yet clear whether the Nationals will seek to bring Finnegan back or sign one of the remaining free agents, but, at least as of now, López has a chance to close games in Washington and, therefore, is a reasonable speculation at his elevated ADP.

Tanner Scott’s ADP rose sharply when he signed a free agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. His presumed position as the Dodgers’ closer was short-lived, however, because the team soon after signed Kirby Yates. Most managers expect some type of job-share at closer for the Dodgers – Dave Roberts had no problems using multiple relievers to close-out games last season – but many expect now Yates to receive the majority of save opportunities, causing Scott’s ADP to decline modestly. Scott represents a difficult choice for managers – his ADP is high for someone without an assured primary closer role, yet he has been dominant the last two seasons, records plenty of strikeouts with excellent ratios, and at a minimum should be in line for a decent number of save opportunities with some wins mixed in. Additionally, Yates is turning 38 next month and has had injury issues in the past. Interestingly, Yates has only served as a team’s primary closer for two seasons (2019 and 2024) and, like Scott, has less than 100 career saves.

Managers approve of Carlos Estévez’s new home (Kansas City), and his ADP has risen since his signing with the Royals. Because there was at least a general expectation that Estévez would close wherever he chose to sign, the initial rise in his ADP has not been huge, but I expect that ADP will continue to rise as we get closer to March. Estévez has been a mediocre reliever for most of his career (much of it spent pitching at Coors Field for the Rockies), but he is coming off a strong 2024 season (4 W, 26 SV, 50 K in 55 IP, 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) and the Royals seem likely to give him the majority of save opportunities with Lucas Erceg moving back into a set-up role. While Estévez should be drafted as a primary if not full-time closer, managers are reminded how volatile the position can be, and it is easy to envision scenarios where Erceg outpitches Estévez and regains the Royals’ closer role.

Finally, Jon Gray’s ADP climbed modestly upon news that he would be willing to serve as the Rangers’ closer. Absent some announcement by the team, managers should not read too much into Gray’s offer. First, Gray is currently penciled in as one of the team’s starters and, while that could change, the team’s top two starting pitchers are 35 or older and the Rangers likely will need to keep Gray stretched out. Second, there is absolutely no reason to expect Gray to be a competent closer – he has five career relief appearances, zero career saves, declining skills, and had a sub-20% K% last season.

Top ADP Risers – Hitters

New contracts are driving the biggest ADP gains among hitters. Jon Berti recently signed a contract to play for the Cubs. Capable of playing multiple infield positions, Berti could start at second base if, as expected, Nico Hoerner is forced to miss any time due to offseason surgery. Berti also provides the Cubs with some insurance in the event highly touted rookie Matt Shaw stumbles out of the gate at third base (or second base if the Cubs sign Alex Bregman). At 35 and in a utility role, Berti’s fantasy value may be limited, but many managers thought that when playing time opened up in Miami during the 2022 season only to watch Berti become a fantasy MVP candidate with 41 stolen bases (or “Berti Bags”) in 102 games.

Donovan Solano’s ADP is on the rise following his signing with Seattle. Absent different news coming out of spring training, I would expect Luke Raley to retain a strong-side platoon role at first base, with Solano playing regularly against left-handed pitchers. At this point, a 37-year-old Solano likely filling a short-side platoon role in spacious T-Mobile Park does not excite me (nor does it likely excite the Mariners’ excellent starting rotation still seeking increased run support this offseason).

Elias Díaz signed a one-year contract with San Diego, providing further proof that the Padres simply do not trust Luis Campusano to takeover the starting catching role. Díaz’s best fantasy seasons were when he played his home games in Coors Field in Colorado; at 34, his fantasy relevance hitting near the bottom of the Padres’ lineup is limited.

Jesse Winker signed recently to return to the Mets. At this point, Winker likely serves in a strong-side platoon at designated hitter but is capable of playing in the outfield as needed. Following a horrible 2023 season, Winker rebounded in 2024 (63 R, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 14 SB, .253 AVG in 145 games). Considering that Winker had just three career stolen bases from 2017 through 2023, his 14 stolen bases may have been one of last season’s biggest statistical surprises. Before counting on a repeat, however, managers should be aware that all 14 of Winker’s stolen bases took place while he played for Washington, prior to his trade for the Mets (for whom he had precisely zero stolen base attempts in 44 games).

A number of hitters on the above table experienced ADP gains for less traditional reasons. A video of Ronald Acuña Jr. taking batting practice was posted on the internet and, voilà, his ADP climbed. Importantly, the news on Acuña has not really changed. He is not expected back by Opening Day, but possibly a few weeks or a month later. The Braves want to make sure he is fully healthy – and ready to play the outfield – before having him reenter the starting lineup. Remember, the Braves have Marcell Ozuna locked into the designated hitter role and, with a long regular season and possible postseason appearance ahead, the Braves intend to exercise patience in terms of Acuña’s return. While I am skeptical about the prospects of an early return, without question Acuña can compile better fantasy stats in five months than the vast majority of hitters can over a full season. Managers will have to balance Acuña’s likely timeline and the possibility of some short-term skills degradation (for instance, possibly running less) versus the upside of an elite fantasy hitter that may be available in the third round for the last time in a long time.

Junior Caminero is marching up draft boards, thanks in part of a mammoth home run that helped secure for his team the championship of the Dominican Republic Professional Baseball League. If managers have not yet seen the homer, it is readily available – picture a massive 454-foot shot followed by one of the slowest (but epic) trots around the bases. Caminero looks like a fantasy stud in the making, but at some point, it is (or will be) reasonable to wonder whether his ADP climb is based on rational expectations for 2025 performance or being driven by a fair dose of draft helium.

Finally, Twins second baseman Payton Eeles has seen his ADP rise in recent weeks. Eeles was acquired by the Twins as an undrafted free agent, and the 5-foot-5 infielder hit 12 home runs and stole 41 bases in 111 games last season across three minor-league levels, with much of the damage inflicted in Triple-A. Although Eeles appears very unlikely to make the Twins’ Opening Day roster and has done nothing newsworthy this offseason, his perception among managers appears to have been boosted recently merely by being name-dropped on one or more podcasts by a certain highly successful NFBC manager (this sometimes is referred to as the “Dussault Effect”).

Top ADP Fallers – Pitchers

A large number of top ADP fallers among pitchers are relievers whose path to saves recently became more difficult. At the top of the list are Dodgers Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen and Evan Phillips. Kopech was a popular early pick to earn a majority of share opportunities for Los Angeles. After being traded from the White Sox, Kopech had a 1.13 ERA with the Dodgers and converted all six of his save opportunities with the team (he also garnered nine saves with the White Sox prior to the trade). Managers drafting Kopech as a closer received two gut punches in recent weeks. First, the Dodgers signed Scott and Yates, both of whom ordinarily would slot in above Kopech as potential closers. Second, news broke that Kopech is likely to miss the first month of the season due to elbow inflammation. Based on this news, it is appropriate for Kopech’s ADP to fall precipitously; his ADP likely will settle lower than the new ADP depicted above.

With the Scott and Yates signings, the market now perceives Treinen and Phillips to be in setup roles, receiving only occasional save opportunities, absent one or more injuries. While Scott and Yates probably deserve to be considered the favorites for a majority of Los Angeles’ save opportunities, neither Treinen nor Phillips should be counted out entirely. Treinen was fantastic last season (7 W, 1 SV, 56 K in 46.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and has experience as a dominant closer (his 2018 season for Oakland was a thing of beauty, with 9 W, 38 SV, 100 K in 80.1 IP, 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). While Phillips struggled during an extended stretch in 2024, he is only one year removed from a very strong 2023 season where he was Dodgers’ primary closer (2 W, 24 SV, 66 K in 61.1 IP, 2.05 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). It is reasonable to assume that, based on last season, Yates starts the season as the team’s primary closer, with Scott also in line for semi-regular save opportunities. That noted, Treinen makes for an interesting speculation at the new ADP; his skills seem on par with those of Yates, who has had injury issues in the past.

Luke Weaver continues to fall in ADP due to the Yankees’ acquisition of Devin Williams. While there is no question that Williams enters the season as the team’s closer, the market response may be a little overblown when it comes to Weaver, who should be the team’s top set-up man and earn saves when Williams needs a night off. Weaver can pitch for more than one inning per appearance and flashed dominant stuff last season (7 W, 4 SV, 103 K in 84 IP, 2.89 ERA, 0.93 WHIP). A repeat of last season, without any improvement, warrants a higher draft pick than the new ADP, and Weaver clearly is first in line for saves should Williams suffer an injury.

Similar to Weaver, Erceg seemingly has been displaced as his team’s primary closer. Kansas City recently signed Estévez, who has 82 career saves compared to only 14 by Erceg (all last season). While many prefer Erceg’s skills, Estévez’s 2024 season should not be overlooked. Despite compiling shaky ratios pitching for the Rockies and in 2023 for the Angels, Estévez had by far the best season of his career last year (4 W, 26 SV, 50 K in 55 IP, 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP). As long as Estévez continues to pitch well, Erceg seems destined for a set-up role. Unlike the Devin Williams–Luke Weaver situation in New York, however, there’s a real possibility that Erceg reclaims the Royals’ closer job should Estévez struggle.

Nate Pearson was a popular DC save speculation when it appeared that the Cubs were content to open the season with Hodge as the team’s closer. The team’s recent trade for Pressly, however, renders Pearson’s path to saves more unlikely; hence, the decline in his ADP. Similarly, many considered Chad Green as a possible closer for Toronto, at least until the team signed Hoffman, making Green’s path to possible saves much more remote.

As of this writing, Kyle Finnegan remains unsigned, and managers apparently are getting nervous because his ADP continues to slide. To the surprise of many, Finnegan held onto Washington’s closer role for the entirety of last season, although his fantasy statistics other than saves were nothing special (3 W, 38 SV, 60 K in 63.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.34 WHIP). Still, a reunion with the Nationals still seems like it would make sense for both parties, and several other teams, including but not limited to Texas and Cincinnati, still could use help in the back-end of their bullpens. That noted, Finnegan has questionable skills and may not be able to find a closer’s role at this time.

Finally, Miami starting pitcher Braxton Garrett’s ADP is falling due to the news that he underwent left elbow UCL surgery with an internal brace. Garrett will miss the 2025 season and should not be drafted in any format.

Top ADP Fallers – Hitters

Some of the hitters whose ADP have fallen the most in percentage terms are simply being drafted one or a few picks later than they were a month or so ago. For instance, there are no recent new stories driving down the expected fantasy value of Fernando Tatis Jr., Ketel Marte, Juan Soto or CJ Abrams. As we move closer to Opening Day, managers should expect pitching – and especially starting pitching – to rise up draft boards and, when that happens, there will be hitters that slip a few (or more) picks. For instance, it would not surprise me in the slightest if Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal are drafted in the first six picks – if not higher – in most Main Event leagues. Should that occur, there will be multiple first round hitters dropping a spot or two in ADP.

Dalton Rushing is another story. Rushing caught in the minor leagues – and is catcher-eligible in the NFBC – but was expected to be in the mix for an outfield spot this season, possibly as soon as Opening Day. Barring injury, the Dodgers’ impressive offseason has made Rushing’s path to playing time much more remote. Putting aside the team’s bolstering of its pitching staff (by signing Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Scott and Yates), the team also re-signed Teoscar Hernandez and signed Michael Conforto, both of whom should slot into the Dodgers’ corner outfield positions. Additionally, Los Angeles signed Hyeseong Kim, whose ability to man second base allows Tommy Edman to remain as the team’s starting centerfielder. Rather than have Rushing compete for a bench role where he plays only sparingly, the Dodgers are expected to let him continue to develop in the minors. Given these developments, the decline in Rushing’s ADP appears warranted. The same also can be said for Andy Pages, who seems well-positioned to make the Opening Day roster as a fourth outfielder, but the additions of Hernandez and Conforto seemingly have eliminated any chance Pages once had to be a full-time outfielder at the start of the season.

Similarly, Atlanta outfielder Bryan De La Cruz is falling in ADP thanks to the team’s recent acquisition of Jurickson Profar to play left field. The Braves did not sign Profar to a three-year, $42 million contract to have him platoon or sit on the bench. Thus, it appears that De La Cruz may be destined for a short-side platoon role in rightfield, with Jarred Kelenic in the strong-side role, but only until Acuña is ready to return, at which point both players should be relegated to the bench.

Joey Loperfido was seen by many managers as a possible starting outfielder for Toronto, at least until the Blue Jays signed Anthony Santander. With George Springer and now Santander seemingly locked into corner outfield positions, Loperfido could be the man out and start the season in the minors. Roster Resource, for instance, projects Nathan Lukes and Myles Straw to form a platoon in center field. I am not sure things will play out that way. Loperfido played 20 games in centerfield last season and may be the best hitter of the three, although he has yet to prove himself at the major league level. Regardless of how things play out this spring, the Blue Jays’ signing of Santander hurts Loperfido’s path to playing time, both explaining and justifying the recent decline in his ADP.

Finally, Milwaukee prospect Caleb Durbin has experienced almost a 30-pick decline in ADP. Earlier this offseason, the Yankees touted Durbin as a great prospect and the team’s possible solution at second base. Of course, such touting was short-lived as the team then shipped Durbin to the Brewers when they acquired Williams to serve as closer. Milwaukee has an unsettled infield, and it is uncertain whether and where Durbin fits in. He is a 5-foot-6 speedster who has logged time at second and third base as well as shortstop. He had a fantastic 2004 season in Triple-A, logging 61 runs, 10 home runs, 61 RBIs and 29 stolen bases while hitting .287 with more walks than strikeouts. Durbin has a legitimate opportunity to carve-out playing time in the Brewers’ infield but, in the Draft Champions context, potential playing time often loses out to assured playing time, and that is why he is being drafted approximately two rounds later than previously in draft season.