Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(It’s fantasy baseball draft season! The FTN Fantasy team and a host of helpful guests present our Ultimate 2024 Fantasy Baseball Guide. Check it out and prepare for the 2024 MLB season!)
Welcome to my third edition of the H2H Fantasy Baseball Primer for the 2024 FTN Draft Guide. For anybody who missed it, make sure to listen to the special H2H FTN Fantasy Baseball Podcast I hosted with Dan Strafford and Michael Waterloo. It’s an excellent complement to this H2H piece that provides additional insights into H2H fantasy baseball play. Let’s boogie.
You Must Unlearn What You Have Learned
I had to offer up some nerd fodder to get the attention of the fantasy baseball masses because the time for 2024 draft preparation is now upon us! Please take this opportunity to break free from all the supposed lessons from the 2023 MLB season. Most of them will offer no quarter here. This is H2H. In H2H, the lessons from 2023 do not apply as they might to roto or best ball leagues. These certainties of the groupthink that most fantasy baseball managers have etched in their minds (Vladimir Guerrero is a third-round pick) will serve no purpose here. H2H is truly an independent beacon within fantasy baseball that requires its own parameters. It’s time to scrub these roto heavy tidbits from our minds with a relentless fervor. For those in need of inspiration simply look to the madness witnessed during the holidays or after any dinner party (most likely followed by a rousing round of Cards Against Humanity or Apples to Apples) when many of our parents (the smart ones put the kids to work) are in a fervor with either sweat or dish water splashed across their brows as they try to scrub away the burnt, overcooked skin of the dinner fowl of choice. Yes! Let us scrub away just like those toilet bubbles to reset our fantasy baseball mainframes with a newly formatted operating system solely focused on the realm of H2H points and categories.
We all know H2H is the cruelest fantasy baseball format of them all. Particularly the H2H playoffs. H2H playoffs are that wild bronco that Tristan tames in Legends of the Fall. He took a beating, but in the end taming that horse was not only an achievement, but it also made Samuel’s lovely fiancee hotter for him. Of course, that was 1994 Brad Pitt in his prime. Any of us would be seduced by that golden god of a man riding his newly tamed steed in the foreground of a picturesque Rocky Mountain landscape. Ignoring the seductive powers of 1994 Pitt would be along the same lines of attempting to forget about 2023 Bobby Witt: Both men share the bond of having a lovely mane of hair, they showed promise while still offering the potential of much more to come and each of them made adjustments in their approaches with Pitt showing off his acting chops proving he wasn’t just a pretty face while Witt reduced his strikeout rate from 21.4% to 17.4% proving he could make more contact.
It’s Dangerous to Go Alone! Take This
For the H2H first-timers out there, obviously they are going to learn a few harsh lessons no fantasy baseball manager should endure. The big surprise here may be for those who are seasoned vets transferring from other formats like roto. Don’t assume those roto experiences will provide a flawless transition to H2H. The NCAA transfer portal has created unprecedented movement between teams for players in football and basketball. Just ask Reddit! Yet, despite the assumption of the boosters that their money will be reason enough for players to thrive, we see time and time again that there are other factors like playing time or a fresh start in new surroundings that determine which players stay or go. Joining a H2H points league is a vastly different undertaking from playing in a standardized Points league where points are accrued over the entire season.
We all needed a helping hand the first time we tried something new. Whether it was riding a bike for the first time or learning how to shave, previous experiences filling grandma’s hand with shaving cream and tickling her nose offered little direction when it came to actually learning how to shave. The same concept applies here. Roto methods such as Standings Gain Points don’t have a home in H2H. Fantasy managers from all foreign fantasy baseball lands will realize some or possibly all of the following harsh realities of H2H fantasy baseball with points or cats:
The Weekly Schedule Is Much More Important
In H2H, the schedule becomes even more important — depending on the league, the H2H playoffs could end in the middle of September or the even the end of August. I offer my 14-team H2H Cats home league known as BYB as an example of scheduling quirks. Our championship week ended Sunday, Sept. 10 crowning our champion, Scott. All hail Scott. He’s good. Yet, there were still two full weeks of regular season baseball left that are rendered meaningless. It would be like Bob passing up Fay’s delicious prepared dessert right after he consumed her delectable chicken dinner! Why not have both!? I for one think the roto people are doing it right by counting the entirety of the regular season for stat counting. Any fear about September call-ups creating too much uncertainty with the MLB rosters has passed now that the impact of September call-ups have been reduced. One other aspect that needs curating is the All-Star break. No self-respecting commissioner should ever have a four-day week post ASB! This is unholy and is the mark of an absolute fraud of a leader. All ASB matchups should either include the entire week before the ASB plus the 4 days after the break ends or start a new week with the 4 days of action after the ASB that includes the following week rolled into one matchup. Don’t be that guy who hasn’t already baked this properly into the regular season schedule.
All Streamers Increase in Value
Every week of the fantasy baseball season on FTN Fantasy, Vlad Sedler organizes a detailed document known as Trust the Gut. It has become much more than that though as Vlad has started to incorporate weekly team by team platoon matchups along with how many righties or lefties are on each team’s slate for that week. Vlad’s article helps managers make completely informed FAAB selections for that week in fantasy baseball. Both hitting and pitching streamers make a greater impact because of the importance of winning certain categories in a given week. It’s possible the value of streamers from both sides of the aisle hold similar value over the course of the entire season for both roto and H2H. Yet, the immediate impact of a two-start pitching streamer who can go Monday and Sunday to secure a win that week in H2H pays immediate dividends. Depending on whether a league has weekly transaction limits, streaming can become stupid fun in H2H! There are few displays in fantasy baseball that are as enjoyable as watching two managers in a bitter showdown head into the weekend blowing up the league’s add/drop feed with 10 different streamers on Friday. For this unique experience alone, streamers are at minimum much more entertaining in H2H compared to anywhere else.
Scoring Systems Are Varied and Unique
This one is simple. Know the scoring system for each individual points league. Typically, innings pitched has been a standard across almost all points leagues providing SP’s who can pitch 180 or more innings in a season with elite status as draftees. However, on our special H2H FTN Fantasy Baseball Podcast mentioned at the top, Michael Waterloo offered the suggestion of giving one point per out secured by a pitcher rather than just an inning pitched. I really thought that was a savvy idea. Why not reward pitcher’s for doing their main job of getting people out as opposed to rewarding 1-3 points for an inning pitched that included giving up 3 earned runs, 2 walks and a homer?
Regular Season Success Is Devalued
Whether it’s a points or cats league, all H2H leagues have playoff setups that vary in formation. I know some people who think it’s fantasy baseball blasphemy to have a 12-team league where six teams make the playoffs. After a few years of experience myself as a H2H commissioner, I too went to the four-team playoff model in a 12-teamer. Half the league should never make the playoffs in my view. The regular season is long enough to provide a large sample of who the best teams are. Every fantasy baseball H2H manager knows the excruciating pain of dominating the regular season only to succumb to a one-week playoff loss. FIN! End of season. Do not pass go. Do not collect $200. That’s totally bogus, man! Playoff randomness can still rear its ugly head even with a shorter playoff format. There is no way out this awful fate. For first time players reading this who are gearing up for their first season in H2H fantasy baseball (points or cats), please bookmark this article for later. Please come back to this and reach out to me after the nightmare scenario has taken hold. I want to be there for all the first-timers right after they experience the absolute agony of having their first-rate regular season suddenly and with complete finality dry-vacced into hyperspace. This is not something anybody should have to go through alone. I am not kidding. There will be anger. Heed my advice ahead of time. Use the support system already in place with thousands of H2H managers who know the pain of which I speak.
Innings Expectations Must Be Understood
This angle is fairly cut and dry. H2H leagues should have minimum innings pitched floors for each week of competition. If there are none, then it’s an amateur hour league at best. In addition (I have definitely seen people lose it in the league chat when this happens), make sure that the innings requirement is met. I would say this pain is second to losing in the playoffs after a fabulous regular season. Completing a master stroke of a team pitching performance with ratios that would send Chris Sale off on a clubhouse-like rage with envy, only to have them not count because of missing out on the innings pitched minimum by two thirds of an inning is not something anybody wants to endure. Weekly pitching requirements one way or another is a standard-issue H2H staple.
Closers Are Less Valuable
Punting saves in H2H cats is a viable way to still win a championship. In non-overall contests it works out in roto too, but with a bit more risk possibly than in H2H. MLB has already changed when it comes to RP’s. Every bullpen now outside of Colorado has a stable of Hot Hot Heat flame throwing pitchers who can induce the K’s. The Marmol Strategy (for those who don’t know) is a RP-heavy approach that only works in 5×5 H2H Cats leagues usually without an innings pitched minimum. The concept focuses on punting W’s and K’s while dedicating all resources toward the other eight cats. Drafting heavily with the hitters to take all five hitting categories with a roster of RPs instead of SPs who will dominate ratios and saves with the hope of winning every week 8-2 or 7-3. The method increases the value of closers, but league commissioners get wise to this gambit and often institute a weekly minimum innings pitched which voids the success rate of the Marmol Method. Even in H2H points leagues where closers may get 6-8 points per save, it’s still not enough to compete with middle of the road starting pitchers who rack up points for innings pitched. H2H leagues with K9 or Holds as additional scoring cats are the only way to increase the value of closers. Even then, my experience tells me closers hold about as much value as Wayne Enterprises stock after Bane’s raid on the exchange.
Learning Lady Luck Limits Leads
It’s not your fault. Learn these words. Luck is a component of all aspects of fantasy baseball, but H2H managers will pay the ultimate price thanks to the power of week-to-week luck. That is all.
It’s Either Play or Get Played
As H2H play has progressed over the years, the all-play system of competition is becoming a more common occurrence across H2H leagues. For the uninitiated, review the luck portion just above. In an attempt to combat the terrible pain of losing thanks to one lucky week from an opponent or one terribly painful unlucky outing in the playoffs, some whiz kid created the idea of the all-play! No this is not an idea that sprouted from a random drunken game of Mario Party on The Gamecube back in 2003. Actually, I don’t have the origin story of this concept. What I do know is that somewhere in time some genius savant decided to make each week of a H2H matchup include a total participation from every team in the league to compete against one another. Let’s say in a 12-team weekly H2H matchup I score 127 points which ends up being the second-highest total of the week in my league next to my opponent who scores 129 points. In the standard one-to-one model, I would lose that week leaving me with a record of 0-1. However, with the all-play model applied I would play every team in the league that week straight up. Now my same point total of 127 would still lose to the fancy pants with 129 points, but since I was the second-highest point total I would end the week with a record of 10-1 against the rest of the teams in the league. Now that’s progress! Every fantasy baseball manager knows the pain that bad breaks or randomness can bring upon a fantasy baseball team. The all-play is not a myth. It’s a real thing just like dryland. It’s a real system of balance that can be the cure that ails many H2H leagues currently living without a system of fair play. I know there are those trash talkers out there who love the intensity of a one-to-one matchup, but those people could still talk their trash against their rivals every week while still appreciating the value of an honestly earned champion who has ducked nobody on the schedule.
Thanks for making the 2024 FTN Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide a priority! If this article brought a grin to anybody’s face, I offer more grins with my weekly in-season article Groovin’ With Govier featured on FTN Fantasy.
