Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (9/1)

We made it to September! There are now four weeks left in the MLB and NFBC seasons. After tonight, there will only be three FAAB runs left. During the first five months of the season, fantasy managers often evaluated potential player drops with both short- and long-term considerations in mind. At this time, however, short-term impacts should be the overwhelming priority in evaluating and ranking player drops (as well as acquisitions). As a general rule, recently-injured players should be dropped unless they are elite and the news suggests a mid-September (or earlier) return is likely, or at least possible.

Here are a few recommendations for inclusion in fantasy managers’ FAAB processes for the final month of the season:

• The goal is to win, or at least cash, in leagues and overall contests. At the draft table, managers strive to roster a balanced team. For the last month of the season, deemphasize balance and prioritize those roto categories where you can gain the most standings points, while protecting those categories where you can lose the most standings points. If not already doing so, managers now should be evaluating standings at the start of their FAAB process.

• Each FAAB process should include an evaluation of any and all injured players. Prior to finalizing drop decisions, review all recent news on any injury stashes and try to form a reasonable expectation as to if and when they are likely to return to action. If there is no news whatsoever on the player, that often is a sign that they are not performing baseball activities and still are healing or shut down. If a player is unlikely to return this week or next week, does it really make sense to stash them for what may be no more – and potentially much less – than two weeks of games?

• For the first five months of the season, I try to prioritize pitching – particularly starting pitching – on my benches. At this point in the season, however, I tend to shift toward rostering an extra hitter or two, primarily for two reasons. First, there are now very few desirable starting pitchers available in FAAB, especially in 15-team leagues. The pitching prospects worth rostering already have been promoted, and injuries are decimating the starting pitching ranks. Thus, to the extent any of my rostered pitchers experience an injury, I’m now less likely to seek to replace them in FAAB with another pitcher. Second, in the final month, MLB teams will seek to rest players more frequently, especially as teams are eliminated from the playoffs. Playing time is always important, but it becomes essential down the stretch for managers trying to improve or maintain their positions in certain categories. Having extra bench bats at this time often can be very helpful. (For the final week of the season, teams should have no more than one bench pitcher, merely as insurance against an injury being announced between the last Sunday night FAAB run and player locks on Monday or Tuesday; all other bench spots ideally should be filled with hitters.)

• I’ve covered this previously but, as a reminder, player schedules are also increasingly important down the stretch, especially if/when deciding which pitchers to drop. While I am not recommending dropping aces, I will hold a mediocre pitcher with a favorable schedule over a modestly better pitcher with an unfavorable schedule. In deciding between two (or more) pitchers to drop, evaluate their upcoming matchups. Do the same for hitters, but also focus on the parks they will be playing in as well as the skill and the handedness of the starting pitchers they are projected to face. For instance, obviously, a trip to Colorado or Cincinnati is very appealing for hitters. At the opposite end of the spectrum, I would avoid starting marginal right-handed bats against the Mariners rotation.

Some of the players who should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

On Thursday, the Red Sox placed infielder David Hamilton on the 10-day IL with a fractured left index finger after he was hit by a pitch. Reports indicate that Hamilton has been told it typically is a 4-6-week injury, but he’s hoping to be back in 2-3 weeks if his pain tolerance allows. In virtually all contexts, Hamilton now is a drop. I say “virtually” because, in certain circumstances, I could see trying to hold onto Hamilton or someone like him. As we reach the end of the season, certain categories are very close, and small contributions – in the right categories – can make an enormous difference in the outcome of a league. For the season, Hamilton is hitting .248 with 8 HR, 47 R, and 28 RBI – all of which are rather ordinary. Hamilton, however, also has 33 SB. Notwithstanding a less than full-time role, Hamilton has stolen at least one base in the last seven weeks, and 13 out of the last 15 weeks (during which he stole 29 bases). A case can be made that, where the stolen base category is critical to fantasy managers, having a player like Hamilton rostered for the final week or two could make him worth stashing. Personally, given the uncertainty regarding Hamilton’s recovery period, if prioritizing stolen bases, I would drop Hamilton for a healthy alternative, such as Dairon Blanco or Dylan Moore. If, however, all credible stolen base threats are already rostered, and I had an available bench spot, stashing Hamilton for the final two weeks of the season could make sense, assuming a few late stolen bases could make the difference. On the other hand, for teams where stolen bases need not be prioritized, Hamilton is an easy drop. 

Logan O’Hoppe is not a drop just yet, but fantasy managers rostering him should be concerned. O’Hoppe was well on his way to a strong fantasy season until August arrived. O’Hoppe hit .270 in March/April, .238 in May, .324 in June and .299 in July. Through the end of July, O’Hoppe had 15 HR, 47 R, 44 RBI, 2 SB, and was hitting a robust .281. The month of August, however, has been an absolute disaster for O’Hoppe. For the month, he is hitting .099, with only 2 HR, 5 R and 6 RBI across 25 games (98 PA). Managers should be monitoring O’Hoppe over the next week or two to see if he can break out of this horrible slump. If he cannot, it might be time to consider alternatives. For a player with the skills and the bright future of O’Hoppe, it normally pays to exercise patience. At this point in the season, however, we are running out of time, and in leagues where every stat can make a difference, a lesser hitter playing well may be preferable to a better hitter playing lousy.

Jarred Kelenic has prospect pedigree and skills that could translate into a five-category contributor. The problem for Kelenic – and his fantasy managers – is that he constantly disappoints. Thanks to injuries to Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris, Kelenic was gifted with the most playing time of his career. To date, however, his production has been very pedestrian (13 HR, 44 R, 39 RBI, 6 SB, .231 AVG in 121 games and 418 PA). The Braves apparently have seen enough. With the return of Harris and improved play of Ramon Laureano, Kelenic finds himself riding the pine, having started only one of the last six games (and none of the last five). While an injury could open up playing time, managers should not be waiting for one. At this time of the season, playing time is paramount and reserves, including Kelenic, should be dropped.

The Marlins’ Xavier Edwards was off to a tremendous start to his MLB career until this past Monday, when he was placed on the 10-day IL with a back injury. The Marlins are describing the injury as “mild back extensor soreness” and imaging failed to reveal anything more serious. Edwards is eligible to be activated on September 3, although at the time of writing, news has been slow as to his recovery and likely return date. If needing speed – and fantasy managers rostering Edwards presumably do – he is a hold absent further news indicating a material delay to his eventual return. In only 47 games, Edwards already has 22 stolen bases and, incredibly, is hitting .349 with almost as many walks as strikeouts. For now, Edwards is worth stashing (and so is a hold in 15- and 12-team formats) in the hopes that he is able to return this week or very shortly thereafter. Note, however, that if Edwards still is experiencing back issues when he returns, his base-stealing could be impacted.

Quick Hits

• The Cardinals’ Willson Contreras was placed on the 10-day IL last Sunday with a fractured middle finger. On Monday, news was released that while Contreras will not require surgery, he will be shut down for three weeks. While there remains a chance that Contreras could return to action during the final week of the season, the Cardinals will be eliminated from playoff contention long before then, and the team has no reason to rush Contreras back. In any event, even if Contreras could make it back, he still is a clear drop now. It would be poor roster management to tie up a roster spot for at least three weeks in the hopes that a catcher can make it back for a few games during the final week of the season. If the news reports on Contreras in the coming days are positive, he can be reacquired in a few weeks.

• Earlier this week, the Athletics’ Miguel Andujar underwent season-ending core muscle surgery. He will not play again until 2025 and should be dropped in all formats.

• Jason Heyward, having been released earlier this week by the Dodgers, was signed by the Astros. In a corresponding move, Houston demoted Chas McCormick to Triple-A. At the time of his demotion, McCormick was having a miserable season, with 5 HR, 28 R, 24 RBI, 8 SB and a .192 AVG in 87 games (243 PA). If there is a reason to stash a sub-.200 hitting outfielder who was just sent down to the minors, I cannot think of it. Fantasy managers continuing to roster McCormick should drop him tonight.

• On August 19, the Pirates placed Ke’Bryan Hayes on the IL due to recurring back pain. That same day, fantasy managers found out that Hayes has played most of the season with a herniated disc. Hayes still is being evaluated and has not resumed much activity. While Pirates general manager Ben Cherington is optimistic that Hayes will play again in 2024, fantasy managers should be more skeptical. Regardless, there is no compelling reason to stash an oft-injured player, with a herniated disc, who has managed only 4 home runs and a .233 average over 96 games (396 PA). Managers continuing to roster Hayes are advised to drop him in 12- and 15-team formats.

• On August 29, the Royals’ Vinnie Pasquantino broke his thumb in a collision at first base. Pasquantino will be out 6-8 weeks and is an immediate drop in all formats.

• On August 30, the Giants outrighted Thairo Estrada to Triple-A. Estrada has been terrible this season, with 9 HR, 43 R, 47 RBI, 2 SB, .217 AVG in 96 games (381 PA). Estrada’s 2 SB has been particularly frustrating; based on consecutive 20+ SB seasons in 2022 and 2023, fantasy managers expected a lot more than two bags. Stashing poorly performing players who have been demoted to the minors is a bad strategy, especially in the final month of the season. Estrada should be dropped in all formats.

• Orioles infielder Ramon Urias injured his ankle last night and was seen walking with crutches after the game. In 12-team leagues, Urias is an immediate drop. In 15-team leagues, fantasy managers rostering Urias primarily for this weekend’s series at Coors Field should drop him. If viewing Urias as a regular starter for the rest of the season – and he has been playing well in recent, full-time duty – then managers may want to hold him for a week – if they possess the roster flexibility – to see if he is placed on the IL or able to return in a few days. That said, if needing an active player for this week, I would treat Urias’ use of crutches as a sign to drop him. The Orioles are promoting Coby Mayo today, and Urias’s ankle injury gives Baltimore the opportunity to play Mayo for at least a few days, if not longer.

• The Nationals’ Juan Yepez has hit fairly well this season, albeit without much power (5 HR, 22 R, 21 RBI, 2 SB, .280 AVG in 45 games and 185 PA). With the recent return of Joey Gallo and the promotions of Jose Tena and Andres Chaparro, however, Yepez has fallen into a short-side platoon role, making him an easy drop in all formats.

Potential Pitcher Drops

The Blue Jays’ Yariel Rodriguez is broadly owned, possibly more than he should be moving forward. You do not need to watch Rodriguez long to be intrigued by his stuff. His results thus far, however, leave much to be desired. Through 16 starts, Rodriguez has only 1 win (in contrast to 6 losses), a 4.82 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP, while striking out a batter per inning. Those ratios are not helpful. Also, Rodriguez has only pitched 65.1 innings, or barely four innings per start, which limits his opportunities to qualify for wins. Following his scheduled start this afternoon, Rodriguez is not expected to have any remaining two-start weeks and has some tough matchups on the horizon, including at the Braves and home against the Red Sox. Thus, while Rodriguez may sit above the line for starting pitchers worth rostering in 15-team formats on a season-long basis, I am not sure he’s there for the final four weeks. Rodriguez is a team-dependent call; starting pitching options are especially scarce in 15-teamers, and so he may be a hold in some leagues while, in others, he can be safely dropped. In the 12-team format, Rodriguez should be considered no more than a matchup play.

Tyler Glasnow began his second IL stint of the season on August 16 due to right elbow tendinitis. By most accounts, Glasnow’s return is not imminent. He resumed throwing this past Friday, but his activation is some ways off. Recently, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts indicated that a mid-September return is a “best-case scenario.” I think Glasnow remains a hold for most – but perhaps not all – teams. The case for holding Glasnow is as follows: (1) he is a true ace, and one of the best pitchers in baseball on a per game basis; (2) when Glasnow pitches, he should provide plenty of strikeouts plus strong ratios; (3) he pitches for a first place team that provides plenty of run support, and so Glasnow enters each start with an above-average win expectation; and (4) given the state of pitching in both 12- and 15-team leagues, getting three or even two strong starts out of Glasnow at the end of the season is worth stashing him in most competitive leagues. The case against holding Glasnow depends on how badly a fantasy manager needs his roster spot. In Glasnow’s case, the risks of prioritizing him over other potential stashes where a roster spot is needed are: (1) if a mid-September return is the best-case scenario, a late-September return (or later) is a distinct possibility; (2) there exists a risk of reinjury or setback that would prevent Glasnow from returning at all; (3) if Glasnow does return, he may not pitch deep enough into games to qualify for a win, at least initially; and (4) as we have seen time and time again this season, players returning from injury do not always achieve peak performance right away, and so it’s possible that Glasnow struggles more than expected upon his return. The Dodgers’ focus will be on getting Glasnow ready for the playoffs, not how he performs for our fantasy teams down the stretch. Thus, while Glasnow’s skill level makes him a priority stash in most circumstances, I can understand some managers possessing solid pitching and a “tight” bench electing to prioritize elsewhere.

Tyler Mahle was placed on the IL on August 20 with what has been described as right shoulder tightness. At the time, the Rangers indicated that they merely were being cautious with Mahle, whose velocity dipped in his last start. Interestingly, though, there have been no updates on Mahle’s potential return in the past week. At this point, it appears that Mahle will be out for longer than a minimum IL stint, and possibly much longer. In fact, with the Rangers soon to be out of playoff contention and focused on ensuring that Mahle is healthy for 2025, the team has no incentive to hurry him back into action. In this case, the absence of news provides cause for pessimism on Mahle’s return. If he had resumed throwing and was working his way back into the Rangers rotation, there seemingly would have been news to that effect. If possessing an extra roster space, I can see holding for one more week in the hope of getting a favorable update on Mahle’s status. For most teams, however, Mahle should be considered a drop. Unlike Glasnow, Mahle does not possess the skill set that is worth stashing for only a start or two. While Mahle only made three starts returning from Tommy John Surgery before experiencing shoulder tightness, the results (4.97 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) signal “drop” not “hold.”

By most metrics, Tanner Houck is having an excellent season, and it probably is a surprise to even see his name mentioned in an article focused on player drops. After all, Houck is 100% owned in the Main Event and 97% owned in the Online Championship and is having a solid (or better) season: 8 W, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 143 K in 164.2 IP. So, why is Houck included here? Two reasons. First, as an example of my oft-given advice that fantasy managers should evaluate their own players as well as potential FAAB targets, it may come as a surprise to some just how much Houck has struggled lately. Since July 1, Houck has made 10 starts (57 IP) and, in those starts, has 1 W, 3.95 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and a 15.2 K% and 10.8% BB% (resulting in a truly terrible 4.4% K-BB%). Second, Houck has tough matchups for the next three weeks. He is at the Mets this week, is home against the Orioles and at the Yankees the following week, and then is home against the Twins. In the 15-team format, Houck is a hold for the vast majority of teams, whereas I think viable alternatives probably are more prevalent in 12-teamers for managers nervous about Houck’s recent performance and upcoming matchups.

From 2021 through 2023, David Bednar was an elite relief pitcher and, for the last two of those seasons, was the Pirates’ primary closer. The table below illustrates Bednar’s strong skills, as well as the decline being experienced in 2024:

The decline in Bednar’s ratios has been shocking. Among the red flags in Bednar’s profile are: (1) his Barrel% is about double what it was in 2023; (2) his strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been since 2020, while his walk rate is the highest it’s been since 2019; and (3) after posting HR/9 of 0.74, 0.70, 0.40 from 2021-2023, his HR/9 this season is 1.53. Since coming off of the IL in Week 16 (oblique), Bednar has allowed 15 ER in 15.2 IP. Following his last appearance (0.2 IP, 5 ER), Bednar was removed from the closer role by manager Derek Shelton. While it is possible that Bednar identifies and fixes what has been ailing him, strings together multiple strong appearances and regains the closer role, fantasy managers should view this possibility pessimistically, especially considering how Bednar has pitched lately. (If the “fix” were that simple, it would have been implemented already.) Bednar should be considered a drop in all formats.

Max Scherzer has not pitched in an MLB game since July 30. Shortly after that, he went on the 15-day IL with shoulder fatigue and, at this point, it is becoming increasingly less likely that Scherzer will return this season. After resting his shoulder, Scherzer was scheduled to pitch in a rehab game on August 23, but that never happened. It was reported that Scherzer was “just not ready” and in a “holding pattern.”  On August 27, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said that it is “going to take a while” to build Scherzer back up once he resumes throwing. Since the Rangers are likely to be eliminated from playoff contention prior to Scherzer being ready to pitch in an MLB game, there’s a good chance he has thrown his last meaningful pitch in 2024. Managers desiring roster flexibility should drop Scherzer in 12- and 15-team formats. If intent on stashing an injured player for some upside, players more likely to return should be prioritized over Scherzer (who, if even does make it back, may not be able or allowed to pitch for five innings in a start, making him ineligible for a win).

After lasting only one inning (and having allowed 3 ER) before being removed from his start on Friday with an injured left big toe, Clayton Kershaw was placed on the 15-day IL yesterday due to a bone spur in that toe. After the game, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts stated with respect to Kershaw’s toe that: “There’s so much swelling, he can barely move around.” Kershaw is not eligible to be activated until September 15, and Roberts indicated that the Dodgers do not know how long Kershaw will be sidelined but are “hopeful” that he’ll return before the end of the season. Unless fantasy managers have a free roster spot, Kershaw should be considered a drop for any player likely to be helpful during the stretch run. Thus far this season, Kershaw has made 7 starts, compiling 2 wins, 24 strikeouts, a 4.50 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP. While Kershaw on a season-long basis still possesses above-average skills, he is not dominant enough for me to hold him for what may be no more than one or two potentially-abbreviated starts. Importantly, in the case of Kershaw and for all other injured players for which uncertainty exists, fantasy managers always have the option of holding onto players in the hope that future news reports will add clarity on likely return dates.

Quick Hits

• On August 27, the Reds’ Nick Lodolo went on the 15-day IL with a sprained left middle finger. Over his last five starts, Lodolo has a 9.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. News reports indicate that Lodolo’s finger will be in a splint until September 9, and that the injury could end his season. Between lousy recent performance and an injury that may keep him out through the end of the season (or something close thereto), Lodolo now is a clear drop in all formats.

• The Royals’ Michael Lorenzen was placed on the IL on August 28 with a strained hamstring. Thus far, the Royals have been mum on the results of Lorenzen’s MRI, and so the severity of the strain has not been made public. Under these circumstances, Lorenzen is a clear drop in 12-team leagues and a recommended drop in 15-team leagues, with the possible exception of those leagues where the fantasy manager can stash him easily and is unable to identify an upgrade available in FAAB.

• The Giants’ Robbie Ray was placed on the 15-day IL on August 27 with a strained hamstring. Ray is eligible to come off of the IL on September 10, but it is uncertain whether he will do so. In fact, news on the severity of Ray’s hamstring strain has been elusive. Given Ray’s skill level, it seems prudent to hold, at least for one week, in the hopes of gaining information on his likely return date. Starting pitching available in FAAB, particularly 15-team leagues, looks rather ugly, and if a September 10 return date is possible, Ray would be worth holding in all formats. Fantasy managers prioritizing strikeouts (Ray’s most bankable categorical contribution) in particular should hold.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am challenging myself by focusing solely on pitchers who are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters. 

Heading into today’s games, my Week 23 disaster picks have been pretty accurate, pitching to a 4.14 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. On the downside, Javier Assad and Edward Cabrera, neither of whom pitched especially well, won yesterday’s starts, taking my selections’ weekly win total from zero to two. In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “disaster” picks thus far. Week 23 below reflects results through yesterday; additional stats accumulated today will be reflected in next week’s article.