Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (8/4)

Dispensing advice on whether fantasy managers should hold or drop certain players is challenging, in large part because the best move often is very team dependent. As the saying goes, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Some of the many factors that come into play include, but are not limited to (i) the composition of the manager’s starting lineup, (ii) the composition of the manager’s bench (and whether it is populated with active or inactive players), (iii) the options available in FAAB to replace a potential drop and (iv) if the potential drop is an injury stash, the expected recovery period and the likelihood that the player will return to peak form and move the needle in the roto categories critical to that team. As we enter the final two months of the baseball (and fantasy) season, managers should, in many (but not all) circumstances, be more cutthroat about dropping players.

In August and September, standings become increasingly important in hold/drop decisions. Whether to drop a slumping player can be a different analysis for a fantasy manager winning his/her league with a 10-point lead than it is for a manager in eighth place, 10 points out of a cash position that needs to gain ground quickly. For at least the first half of the season, the focus of most managers is to compile the best overall team possible, almost without regard to league standings. Early in the season, patience can be a virtue; as we head down the home stretch, however, excessive patience can be an albatross.

Digging deeper, in addition to league standings, category standings rise in importance as we enter the final third of the season. Some categories may be highly competitive for a team, with several – or even many – points of potential upside and/or downside in play. In other categories, teams may be first or last, or perhaps somewhere in between but on an island with only a point or two, or less, of upward and/or downward movement likely. The goal in roto – at least within your league – is to maximize your team score, and at this stage, which may call for optimizing performance in certain categories at the expense of other categories, which can have major impacts on the evaluation of whether to hold or drop a specific player. For instance, if you are rostering Elly De La Cruz and have an enormous lead in the stolen base category, you probably need to evaluate whether to hold or drop other speed-dominant players who provide little assistance in the other hitting categories. On the other hand, if you are last or near the bottom of the stolen base category and require a fairly large number of bags just to gain a single point, it may be time to drop a stolen base threat in favor of a player more helpful in other categories where adding standings points are more realistic.

Before turning to recommendations on specific hitters and pitchers who might be drops, let’s examine some common player profiles and factors to consider when evaluating them.

Profile No. 1 is a relief pitcher with good – not great – ratios and who is second in line or “in the mix” for saves on a team but currently is not the primary closer. In evaluating whether to hold or drop this profile, consider: (a) how competitive the team is in the saves category; (b) how often the reliever would be started absent a change in role; (c) the likelihood the player can gain a greater share of the closer role; (d) the extent to which the team has other save sources rostered; (e) whether adding perhaps one save or less per week with a part-time closer, plus good ratios, is likely to gain or preserve more standing points than utilizing a starting pitcher who should provide more wins and strikeouts but potentially worse ratios; (f) whether there are bigger difference-makers available in FAAB; and (g) if the player is dropped, how difficult would be it to acquire that player – or a comparable one – later in the season if and when needed. In my experience, unless (i) saves are highly competitive, (ii) ratios are highly competitive and/or (iii) the relief pitcher has a real chance for increased save opportunities, I typically will drop a non-closer for a semi-appealing starting pitcher or a reliever with a seemingly clearer path to saves. While clear-cut closers do not become available in FAAB all that frequently, I find that relievers fitting this particular profile are available most weeks.

Profile No. 2 is a minor league prospect who may (or may not) be promoted to the majors sometime soon. In evaluating whether to hold or drop this profile, consider: (a) how elite is the prospect; (b) how the prospect is performing in the minors over the last few weeks (at a minimum); (c) the extent to which maintaining the stash is limiting the team’s roster flexibility and/or preventing the team from adding an active player in FAAB; (d) whether the team is competing for a playoff spot or running out the string; (e) whether the player already has played in the majors and/or is sufficiently elite such that the team may prefer to keep the player in the minors to maximize years of control; and (f) if promoted, whether the player immediately would fill a full-time role. At this point in the season, if I am going to stash a minor league player (and have the roster flexibility to do so), I need that player to be truly elite, like Junior Caminero. With prospects, there usually is tremendous uncertainty regarding not only when the promotion will come, but whether the player will perform well right out of the gate. If I am going to take on those risks this late in the season, I want the prospect to be elite, excelling in the minors, and possess a high upside worthy of the cost incurred maintaining the stash. With prospects, it is especially important that the hold/drop evaluation be repeated every week as part of the FAAB process.

Profile No. 3 is a hitter with a dominant trait, such as strong power or speed. In evaluating whether to hold or drop this profile, consider: (a) the competitiveness of the roto category that is the player’s strength; (b) whether and to what extent the player contributes to other categories that also are competitive; and (c) the extent to which starting the player actively hurts the team in other categories. This last factor is especially important and sometimes overlooked. For instance, assume a team needs stolen bases. In many leagues, the Royals’ Dairon Blanco has the most stolen bases of any player available in FAAB. Acquiring and starting him now likely would help in the stolen base category, but almost certainly hurt the team in the other four hitting categories. Such a strategy may be optimal in the final weeks of the season; it rarely is optimal with a full two months to go. While I definitely try to address categorical weaknesses in FAAB – and consider them when making drops – I find myself more likely to lean toward a power bat than a speedster, because if the player performs as intended, he likely will be helpful in RBI and, hopefully, runs, too. That noted, fantasy managers need to analyze category standings carefully every week – it is a judgment call as to when to sacrifice performance in certain categories in order to prioritize performance in other categories. Making this transition either too early or too late can backfire.

Some of the players that should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s roster percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

Tristan Casas has been out since April 20 when he tore cartilage in his ribs. After a targeted return date in early July came and went, the news on Casas became quite confusing. July 20, Red Sox manager Alex Cora said “it will be a while” before Casas would be able to start a rehab stint. Many fantasy managers (including myself) responded by dropping Casas in FAAB July 21. July 22, the Red Sox reported that Casas had turned a corner in his recovery and could be ready soon to play in rehab games. July 28, it was reported that Casas was ready to play in rehab games and would begin to do so July 30. Managers naturally responded by acquiring Casas in droves that night. Before those managers celebrate too heartily, significant questions remain concerning Casas. Having been out for so long, Casas likely will require a lengthy rehab stint before being ready for MLB games. Casas also will need to avoid setbacks. After two minor league games, Casas acknowledged that he still is feeling pain in his ribs: “Right now, when I make contact with the ball, it feels like someone’s stabbing me with a knife right in the ribs.” Barring further bad news, managers stashing Casas should continue to hold him and hope his rib pain recedes to the point where he can continue his season with the Red Sox. Even if he is able to do so relatively soon, however, there are no guarantees that Casas will be able to play every game or perform as he was doing in April.

Esteury Ruiz is still rostered in about one-third of all Main Event and Online Championship leagues. This seems like wishcasting to me. Ruiz had 67 stolen bases in 2023 but entered this season in a fight just to make the team. In fact, but for an injury to Miguel Andujar, Ruiz would have started the season in the minors, which is exactly where he wound up a mere five games into the season when Oakland demoted him to acquire Tyler Nevin. Pause a moment and let that last sentence sink in. The A’s demoted Ruiz to acquire a player who had 5 career home runs and barely a .200 average coming into this season. Since then, Ruiz was promoted to the majors and played with Oakland from April 15 through May 22, when he was placed on the IL with a sprained wrist. Ruiz played in five rehab games in Triple-A between July 9 and July 16, when he again was placed on the IL with a wrist sprain. The A’s currently are playing Lawrence Butler, Miguel Andújar and JJ Bleday in the outfield, with Brent Rooker occupying the DH slot. While Bleday does sit against left-handed pitchers, the team has Nevin and Daz Cameron occupying short-side platoon roles. Even if Ruiz can supplant Nevin or Cameron, a short-side platoon role is not enough to make him worth stashing for weeks, let alone months, especially this late in the season. Unless managers foresee Ruiz taking over for Butler, Andújar, Bleday, or Rooker – and I do not – it is tough to see how Ruiz is going to receive the playing time necessary to excel in the stolen base category (putting aside the likelihood that he provides no contributions to the other four hitting categories).

Dansby Swanson has been a major disappointment this season. In 2022, Swanson put up very strong fantasy numbers for the Braves (25 HR, 99 R, 96 RBI, 18 SB, .277 AVG). Swanson struggled in 2023, his first year with the Cubs (22 HR, 81 R, 80 RBI, 9 SB, .244), but still was relatively productive for fantasy. Coming into Sunday, however, Swanson’s production has continued to decline (9 HR, 41 R, 34 RBI, 7 SB, .222 AVG). Swanson has spent much of the season hitting near the bottom of the Cubs’ underperforming lineup and, at this point, which seems unlikely to change. Swanson probably is a hold for most teams in 15-team leagues – he plays everyday, and hope remains for a pickup in production. In 12-team leagues – and some 15-teamers – managers should be checking the waiver wire for potential upgrades. Swanson should not be dropped for a lesser player having a single hot week, but his performance has slipped to the point where he no longer should be considered “set-and-forget” for managers’ starting lineups.

Early indications are that Nolan Gorman may be the biggest loser from Cardinals’ acquisition of Tommy Pham. Gorman sat Wednesday and Thursday when the Cardinals faced left-handed pitchers, but then also sat Friday against a right-handed pitcher, before starting Saturday. With Pham four straight games since joining the team after a pinch-hit appearance in his first game, Brendan Donovan has covered second base (Gorman’s natural position) in three of those games. Gorman has 19 home runs and is capable of fantasy-worthy production, but he also is hitting .199 (down from .236 last season) with a 37.9% strikeout rate (up from 31.9% last season). Players who hit below the Mendoza line and whiff almost 38% of the time tend to find the bench, and so perhaps this development should have been anticipated, or at least is not surprising. Fantasy managers craving Gorman’s power and willing to overlook the damage he inflicts on batting average should consider holding for another week to see if this week’s playing time pattern sticks. Managers that already were growing tired of Gorman’s reduced fantasy value should treat the reduced playing time as a sign to move on.

Similar to Gorman, fantasy managers rostering Jesse Winker also should be concerned about playing time. Since being acquired by the Mets, Winker has sat twice, once against a right-handed pitcher. Winker’s best defensive position is designated hitter, a role occupied by J.D. Martinez. Winker has played right field since joining the team, but almost certainly will sit against left-handed pitchers, and may no longer be a lock to start against righties. Plus, Starling Marte is inching closer to returning, which may impact the playing time of several players, including Winker. Thus far, Winker has had a surprisingly effective fantasy season, including 11 HR and a shocking 14 SB (after having 3 career SB from 2017 to 2023). Winker is a hold for now, especially in 15-team formats, but managers rostering him should be monitoring his playing time and start developing potential exit strategies. In 12-team formats, managers may want to consider implementing such strategies as soon as Sunday.

Finally, some quick hits:

• The Rays’ Richie Palacios was placed on the IL this week with a right knee strain. Manager Kevin Cash indicated to reporters that Palacios could miss 4-6 weeks. Despite a nice season thus far (including 19 SB), that is way too long to hold him. Palacios should be dropped in all formats.
• For several days last week, Amed Rosario became fantasy relevant again. Thanks to injuries and trades, he was receiving nearly everyday playing time with the Rays, hitting over .300 and is eligible at four positions (2B, 3B, SS, OF). Then, the Rays traded Rosario back to the Dodgers Monday, and his usefulness for our game came to an end. Since the trade, Rosario has had 3 at bats, and the Dodgers likely view him in a short-side platoon role, consistent with how they utilized him last season. Unless managers are convinced Rosario will gain increased playing time, he should be dropped.
• Brandon Drury is not rostered widely, but he is rostered more than he should be. I like Drury, have owned him in the past, and even gave him a whirl on a team or two this season (but quickly moved on). Whether due to lingering injuries or other reasons, Drury is not himself. He has 1 home run in 58 games (215 plate appearances) and a .155 average. He should be dropped in all formats. Really, if I could, I would expend FAAB just to insert Drury into my competitors’ starting lineups.
• In one of the trade deadline’s more puzzling moves, the Orioles acquired Eloy Jiménez. The only game Jiménez has started since the trade was Saturday, when Baltimore faced a left-handed starter. Jiménez has no fantasy relevance if used in a short-side platoon role, as appears to be the case, and should be dropped by managers unless they foresee that role expanding (which I do not, barring an injury).
• Sad news this week involving Mike Trout. Experiencing a setback during his rehab, it was announced recently that Trout suffered a second meniscus tear in his surgically repaired left knee, ending his 2024 season. Fantasy managers still rostering Trout should drop him in all formats.
• The Orioles’ Jordan Westburg was having a strong season (55 R, 18 HR, 58 RBI, 6 SB, .269 AVG) until Wednesday, when he was hit by a pitch and suffered a fractured right hand. Baltimore has yet to release a timetable for Westburg’s return, but his absence easily could last into September. At this point in the season, it would be difficult to justify stashing Westburg with an uncertain return date that almost certainly is sometime in September.

Potential Pitcher Drops

Edward Cabrera is a divisive pitcher for fantasy. He has tremendous swing-and-miss stuff and has increased his strikeout rate every season (23.3%, 25.8%, 27.2%, and 28.6% from 2021-2024, respectively). Cabrera also benefits from playing his home games in a pitcher’s stadium. On the other hand, Cabrera is frequently injured and, when healthy, struggles with control. At times, Cabrera can look fantastic – he has recorded at least 7 strikeouts in half of his starts this season. In my opinion, the evaluation as to whether Cabrera should be held or dropped is relatively straightforward – if a manager needs strikeouts, Cabrera should be held; if the priority is wins, ERA, and/or WHIP, managers can do better with others. Thus far this season, Cabrera is piling up strikeouts (56 in 43.1 IP) but is hurting teams in all other categories (1 win in ten starts, 6.50 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). Cabrera has a career 13.8% walk rate and, unless he is able to materially improve his control, will always be a “WHIP killer.” While Cabrera is capable of pitching well on any given day, particularly against weaker lineups, he should be dropped unless a manager’s overriding priority is strikeouts and he/she is not particularly concerned about wins, ERA, and WHIP.

The Rangers’ Max Scherzer went on the IL this week with shoulder fatigue. There is no information as to when Scherzer likely will be activated and return to game action. While Scherzer may be back before September, he is not a definite hold. Notwithstanding a Hall of Fame career, Scherzer is now 40, missed half the season following back surgery, and has failed to pitch more than 4 innings in three of his last four starts. To his credit, Scherzer has pitched well, with almost a strikeout per inning, 3.89 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP, but he is averaging less than 5 innings per start and only has 2 wins. If fantasy managers can afford to hold Scherzer, they should do so, at least for another week until information on his likely return becomes available. Managers with multiple stashes and deciding among them should consider Scherzer’s (i) uncertain return date, (ii) heightened risk of a setback or another injury, (iii) inability to consistently pitch deep into games this season, (iv) solid performance in the K, ERA, and WHIP categories when healthy and (v) the Rangers’ losing record and the possibility that they fall out of playoff contention.

Fantasy managers stashed A.J. Puk for weeks in the hope that Tanner Scott would be traded, leading to Puk ascending to the closing role. While the Marlins did trade Scott, Puk preceded him out the door, being shipped to Arizona. Puk has made three appearances thus far for the Diamondbacks but has yet to sniff a save opportunity. In fact, the first game after Arizona’s closer, Paul Sewald, was removed from the role, Puk found himself pitching in the sixth inning. The decision as to whether to hold or drop Puk is very team dependent. Puk’s season-long ratios (4.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) are misleading – as a reliever, he has been lights out (2.14 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 29.7% K%). If managers have the roster space and/or need for a reliever with strong ratios who in the future may – or may not – receive save opportunities, Puk is one of the better options around. If, however, managers are pressed for roster space and/or focused solely on saves, Puk probably should be dropped. Early indications are that the Diamondbacks are transitioning from Sewald to Ryan Thompson, and the bullpen also includes Kevin Ginkel, who closed games when Sewald was injured early in the season, and Dylan Floro, who has 32 saves since 2021. The fact that Puk is one of only two lefties in Arizona’s bullpen may cause the Diamondbacks to utilize him in high-leverage situations against left-handed hitters whenever they occur.

Where the set-up man clearly is better skilled than the closer, patience sometimes will pay off. For instance, prior to Saturday night, the stashing of Ben Joyce had yet to pay off for fantasy managers. The expectation was that the Angels would trade Carlos Estevez, and then give Joyce, the team’s closer of the future, some valuable experience closing games while the team is far out of contention. Estevez was traded, as expected, but before managers rostering Joyce could celebrate, Angels’ manager Ron Washington stated that Luis Garcia would be stepping into the closer role, but that Joyce would get many of those opportunities if Garcia was dealt. Shortly before the deadline, the Angels did trade Garcia, freeing up the closer’s role for Joyce. But wait, the first two post-deadline save opportunities went not to Joyce but … Hunter Strickland! News reports indicated that Washington did not feel that Joyce was quite ready to assume the closer role, notwithstanding 17 straight scoreless appearances and a 1.85 ERA. Friday night, Strickland rewarded Washington’s faith by giving up a ninth inning 2-run homer to Jake Cave to blow a save in a game the Angels would lose an inning later. That apparently was all Washington needed to see and last night it was Strickland pitching in the 7^th inning and Joyce picking up the save, whiffing J.D. Martinez for the final out with a 104.7 mph fastball. In our game, patience is not always rewarded, but sometimes the stars do align. Joyce is a firm hold and should receive plenty of save opportunities the rest of the way.

In multiple prior articles I have recommended that fantasy managers: (1) evaluate weekly whether to maintain stashes as part of their FAAB process; and (2) continuously monitor the performance of stashes playing minor league games. Let’s apply these recommendations now to two rehabbing starting pitchers. Walker Buehler was placed on the IL on June 19 due to hip discomfort. At the time of his injury, Buehler had 1 win in 8 games started, 31 strikeouts in 37 innings, and a 5.84 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Fantasy managers stashing Buehler the past six weeks may have been overweighting his name/reputation and team. Examining Buehler’s minor league performance should give even his most ardent supporters pause. In 7 games started at Triple-A, Buehler has pitched to a 5.67 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. In his last two minor-league starts, Buehler pitched a combined 7.1 innings, allowing 15 hits, 5 walks, and 8 earned runs. Veterans tend to work on things while rehabbing and, therefore, minor league stats can be misleading, At a minimum, however, Buehler’s struggles are a sign that the player attempting to get back to the majors simply is not the same player who pitched well for the Dodgers from 2018 to 2022. Even if available in FAAB for $1, I’d have little interest in rostering Buehler now. Maybe he will surprise me and reward managers who have stashed him, but I’m skeptical that will happen.

The Dodgers’ Bobby Miller had an excellent rookie season in 2023 and was drafted aggressively this past off-season (his Main Event ADP was 55, in the fourth round). To say that 2024 has been a disaster for Miller would be an understatement. Battling injuries and terrible performance, Miller has 1 win in 7 games started, with an 8.07 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 29 innings pitched. Since his demotion, Miller has made two starts in Single-A (9.95 ERA, 1.89 WHIP in 6.1 IP) and four starts in Triple-A (5.71 ERA, 1.79 WHIP in 17.1 IP). In other words, Miller has yet to demonstrate that he has cured whatever was ailing him in the majors. Miller was scratched from his scheduled start in Triple-A Friday due to adductor tightness. Perhaps Miller will surprise me and be promoted soon and pitch like he did in 2023. But, like Buehler, Miller is a pitcher that has (i) performed terribly in the majors this season, (ii) been battling health issues, and (iii) failed to demonstrate improved performance in the minors. To me, that makes them questionable (at best) stashes, especially now, when only limited time remains for the turnaround that those holding Buehler and Miller apparently are banking on.

Finally, some quick hits:

• The Royals’ Alec Marsh was replaced in the rotation this week by the newly acquired Michael Lorenzen, and then was demoted to Triple-A following the team’s trade for Lucas Erceg. Marsh should be dropped in all formats.
• Jon Gray went on the IL Monday with a groin strain, and manager Bruce Bochy indicated that Gray could miss up to a month of action. Gray also should be dropped in all formats. A month is way too long to stash an average pitcher like Gray this deep into the season. Moreover, with Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom expected back prior to Gray’s anticipated return date, there is no guarantee Gray will come back as a starter.
• White Sox rookie Drew Thorpe was placed on the IL Friday with a right flexor strain. There is no specific information as to when Thorpe may return, but it figures to be longer than a minimum IL stint. Like Marsh and Gray, Thorpe now should be dropped in all formats. Thorpe has allowed 14 ER in his last 5.2 innings pitched, sending his season ERA up to 5.36. Injured, mediocre pitchers on terrible teams do not represent good stashes.
• Garrett Crochet was not traded by the White Sox and continues to have his innings limited. Crochet has demonstrated elite skills as a starting pitcher, and managers desiring the strong ratios he is capable of delivering should feel free to hold him. Crochet is included in this article as a potential drop due solely to his usage – he has not pitched more than 4 innings in any of his last five starts. Given the very limited innings that Crochet pitched prior to 2024 and his extensive injury history, it is difficult (if not impossible) to imagine the White Sox shifting gears and letting Crochet pitch deeper into games. Thus, managers should assume that Crochet will not win another game this season, and his strikeouts will be limited to those he can record in four or less innings per start. Crochet is rostered in 100% of Main Event leagues and 98% of Online Championship leagues. That seems too high given the limitations being imposed on his usage; for instance, managers prioritizing wins should look elsewhere.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers that I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers that are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am challenging myself by focusing solely on pitchers that are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters.

Last week’s disaster picks were excellent in three of the four roto categories relevant to starting pitchers. The selections recorded fewer strikeouts than innings while compiling terrible ratios (6.14 ERA, 1.38 WHIP). Despite those strong results, those pitchers somehow won three of seven starts. In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “disaster” picks thus far. Week 19 reflects results through Saturday; additional stats accumulated Sunday will be reflected in next week’s article.