Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (8/25)

The fantasy baseball season is getting down to crunch time. While the bulk of fantasy managers’ season stats have been banked at this point, a large number of league titles and cash positions – and potentially some overall championships – will be decided based on the slimmest of margins.

I have won and lost leagues based on a single win, stolen base, home run and even a base hit. It seems improbable that, after nearly six months of accumulating stats, titles will be won and lost on the last day of the season and, sometimes, in the final hour, but it happens every year. Knowing this, managers’ FAAB decisions, including player drops, take on added importance as we head into September.

In selecting player drops, here are some questions that fantasy managers should consider:

• Initially, is the transaction necessary? Many teams now are very low in FAAB; remaining budgets should not be squandered on unnecessary moves. Transactions where one player is dropped for a different player of equivalent skill, if made, should be accompanied by one dollar or very low bids.

• Is the potential drop healthy and active? Roster flexibility is especially important at this point in the season – fantasy managers should seek to avoid taking zeros at any position and that is especially true late in the season. While a hurt player might be more skilled, he cannot help teams until activated, while a healthy player is available to use right now. I am not suggesting that all healthy players should be prioritized over all injured players; clearly, there are currently injured players who possess greater fantasy value for the rest of the season than currently healthy players. That noted, be careful to evaluate the extent to which the possible dropping of healthy players versus stashing injured players might compromise roster flexibility. Ideally, managers should want to come out of FAAB with at least 10 healthy pitchers who they are comfortable starting for the week ahead (the 10th pitcher is insurance for an unexpected injury announced prior to team locks on Monday or Tuesday).

• If a particular player is dropped, do you have sufficient positional coverage? Answering this question requires more than just counting players. For instance, as of now, the Mets are projected to start three left-handed pitchers during this coming week’s Friday through Sunday period, while the Cubs, Astros, Giants, Rangers and Nationals are projected to start two lefties during that period. Fantasy managers rostering six outfielders, for instance, should be checking that at least five of them are poised to play (and hopefully play well) during this coming Friday through Sunday period.  The Mets play the White Sox, and if Gavin Sheets is one of your outfielders, you should anticipate that he probably will not start at least two of the three games this weekend. The Marlins play the Giants, and so managers should not be counting on Jesus Sanchez or Kyle Stowers starting more than once this coming weekend. Similarly, with the Astros scheduled to start two lefties this coming weekend, managers probably should be prepared to sit MJ Melendez (and other Royals who are in platoon roles).

• Similar to the above, when selecting a pitcher to drop, have you checked upcoming schedules? I would much rather start a mediocre arm against the road Rockies or the White Sox than a more skilled pitcher against the Orioles or Yankees. Matchups are incredibly important; thus, pitcher drop decisions should not focus solely on recent performance, but also consider future matchups. For instance, assume, hypothetically, that a fantasy manager in a 12-team league looking to acquire several pitchers in FAAB is trying to decide whether to drop Merrill Kelly or Andrew Heaney. Looking at their schedules, I would drop Kelly, and, because of matchups, the decision would be easy. Over the next four weeks, Kelly is projected to have the following matchups: (1) v. Dodgers; (2) at Giants; (3) v. Rangers; and (4) at Rockies and at Brewers. In contrast, Heaney is projected to have the following matchups: (1) at White Sox and v. Athletics; (2) v. Angels; (3) at Mariners; and (4) v. Blue Jays. Based on schedules, there are a lot of highly skilled pitchers I would drop before Heaney.

• In evaluating potential drops, are you adequately considering categorical strengths? At this point in the season – and even more so a few weeks from now – prioritizing selected categories can be more important than fielding a balanced team. For instance, if you are way ahead (or way behind) in saves, closers become much less important. Depending on where teams are in the standings, the same can be said for power bats, speedsters, etc. The primary focus should be on maximizing standings points (or points in an overall competition). Near the end of the season, if needing stolen bases, I’d have no problem dropping Anthony Santander for Dairon Blanco. While it might be a little too early to implement such an extreme example, the point is to consider categorical needs when making drop decisions. (One caveat is that managers also should consider the categorical needs of their primary competition before dropping certain players. For instance, if dropping an unneeded closer could lead to your primary competitor acquiring him the following week and using him to add multiple standings points in saves, it  would be preferable to stash such closer until the final FAAB period.)

Some of the players who should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

What to do about Christopher Morel? When he’s hot, he can be a huge boon to fantasy teams. When he’s cold, however, rostering and starting him can be physically painful. Morel blends power and speed, and currently is eligible at second base, third base and outfield – an extremely appealing combination. Coming into today, Morel has 21 HR and 8 SB but is hitting .197. While perhaps of little help to his fantasy managers, Morel has been very unlucky this season. In 2022 and 2023, Morel had BABIPs of .320 and .303, respectively; in 2024, it’s .225. Compared to last season, Morel has raised his walk rate by over 2% and lowered his strikeout rate by over 5%. Despite Morel’s struggles, he should be held in most contexts, but the evaluation is team- and league-dependent. Initially, even if managers are unsure about starting Morel, his triple eligibility makes him a useful bench option. If home runs are a priority, Morel possesses strong power. Importantly, however, if batting average is a priority, the case for dropping Morel is stronger. I am somewhat pessimistic about Morel’s future strength in runs and RBI given the Rays’ offensive struggles. Managers also should be aware that Morel has only 1 stolen base in the last 10 weeks. Thus, while Morel is capable of running (and is on a team that likes to run), managers should not count on a large stolen base contribution from him during the final five weeks. In summary, if managers have the roster space and can handle a low batting average, Morel should be held, but he is not a great fit for all teams.

In 2023, Isaac Paredes posted very strong fantasy numbers (31 HR, 71 R, 98 RBI, 1 SB, .250 AVG). This season, the results have not been as strong (18 HR, 48 R, 64 RBI, 0 SB, .227 AVG). Focusing on the modest reduction in Paredes’ output, however, fails to capture just how horrific he has been of late. Paredes’ monthly splits reveal a player who is slumping horribly:

Paredes still is getting everyday playing time and has the skill and the opportunity to turn things around heading into September. If fantasy managers cannot withstand a harmful average, Paredes should be benched until he starts hitting, at least in 15-team leagues. In 12-team leagues, Paredes could be considered as a potential drop, although a somewhat risky one if he were to get hot again as he was at the start of the season. One cause for concern is that Paredes is an extreme pull hitter for power, and his left field “porch” in Chicago is a fair amount deeper than the one he left in Tampa. Paredes is not known for his hard-hit metrics – which are rather pedestrian for a supposed power hitter – and so while he is capable of being a solid fantasy asset, one can expect his power output to take a step back on his new team.

Alex Verdugo hit a home run yesterday. It was his first homer since July 6. Verdugo hit .235 in the first half and is under .200 thus far in the second half. Verdugo has mediocre power (11 HR now for the season), does not run (1 SB), and while his counting stats are decent in the Yankees lineup (63 R and 54 RBI), his .227 AVG means he is hurting fantasy managers in at least three categories. Verdugo is capable of hitting for a plus batting average – he hit between .280 and .308 from 2019-2022 and .264 last season – but has never exceeded 13 home runs or 6 stolen bases. In sum, there are legitimate questions as to whether Verdugo is a fantasy-relevant player if he’s not hitting for a plus average. Verdugo is droppable in 12-team leagues; in 15-teamers, the decision depends on categorical needs.

Fernando Tatis Jr. presents a challenging hold/drop decision. On the one hand, a healthy Tatis is a first-round fantasy talent – the type of player fantasy managers prioritizes among stashes – and he is capable of providing meaningful, five-category contributions during the final stretch of the season. On the other hand: (a) Tatis has been out since June 21; (b) while he finally appears to be progressing in his recovery, Tatis still is not at full strength, has yet to perform the full range of baseball activities and probably will need at least a decently-long rehab stint before activation; (c) as we have seen with numerous players returning from injury this season, there is at least a decent likelihood that Tatis will be mediocre for some period of time upon his return until he is fully “up to speed”; and (d) there only are five weeks remaining in the season, and if it takes Tatis 2-3 weeks to recover fully and complete a rehab stint, there is not much time left for him to be a difference-maker (recognizing that the Padres also may rest him periodically immediately upon his return). For me, the key factors in deciding whether or not to continue stashing Tatis are: (a) the state of the manager’s roster; and (b) the alternatives available in FAAB. If the manager has a tight roster and needs to make acquisitions, I would drop Tatis. I also would drop him if there was a helpful replacement who can be acquired in FAAB and Tatis is the next player who should be dropped. 

Note: I would not expect the replacement to equal or approach Tatis’ skill level; rather, I would focus on whether the player can help a fantasy team now. Such players are more widely available in 12-team leagues than 15-teamers. 

On the other hand, if a manager can continue to stash Tatis with little to no detrimental impact on roster flexibility and/or the pickings in FAAB are especially slim, then I would continue to hold and hope for 2-3 weeks of useful fantasy contributions.

When I think of Eloy Jimenez, two thoughts immediately spring to mind. First, I think of Jimenez’s frequent injuries and games missed. Second, I think that, when healthy, Jimenez is a solid, middle-of-the-order power bat who just moved from MLB’s worst team to one of the best. While my first thought is accurate, my description of Jimenez as a “solid, middle-of-the-order power bat” is subject to challenge, at least this season. I wonder, for instance, how many fantasy managers rostering Jimenez realize that he has not homered since May 14. Importantly, Jimenez was only hurt for a portion of this period – he now has played in 52 games since homering. In 82 games (302 plate appearances) this season, Jimenez has a measly 5 home runs and 22 RBI. If Jimenez is not providing home runs and RBI, there really is no reason to roster him. He barely runs (his 3 SB this season are the only ones of his MLB career) and his average is nothing special. While Jimenez’s team context has improved in terms of winning games, he no longer has a full-time role, and his home park is decidedly more pitcher-friendly for right-handed bats than the one he left. Jimenez is a clear drop in 12-team leagues and the case for dropping him in 15-team leagues is growing more and more compelling  with homerless week after homerless week.

Quick Hits

• Last Sunday, after being hit by a pitch, initial X-rays and testing on Austin Riley’s hand were inconclusive. The next day, the team reported that Riley did, in fact, suffer a fractured hand and will miss 6-8 weeks. With only five weeks left in the fantasy season, Riley is an immediate drop in all formats.

• On Monday, the Dodgers welcomed Max Muncy and recent acquisition Tommy Edman back to action. To free up roster space for them, the team demoted Andy Pages, who played regularly for the team since mid-April. From a fantasy standpoint, Pages has been a mediocre outfielder, compiling a 9 HR, 54 R, 36 RBI, 1 SB, .246 AVG stat line over 358 AB. Even if Pages were to be recalled by the Dodgers, his path to regular playing time now is blocked. He also is a clear drop in all formats.

• On Wednesday, there was another demotion that will impact many fantasy managers: Nolan Gorman. In 2023, Gorman had a breakout season, hitting 27 HR in 119 games (406 AB), while chipping in 7 SB. Gorman only hit .236 – thanks largely to a 31.9% K% – but his production offset a weaker average. This season, Gorman declined. While he still exhibited power (19 HR in 365 AB), Gorman’s strikeout rate rose to a putrid 37.6%. It is nearly impossible to maintain an acceptable average with such a high strikeout rate and, such enough, Gorman’s average fell to .203. Similar to Pages, even if Gorman is recalled at some point due to injury or roster expansion, he appears unlikely to regain regular playing time. With five weeks left in the season, players demoted for poor performance should be dropped, and that includes Gorman.

• On August 20, Jeimer Candelario was placed on the IL with a fractured left toe. As of now, there is no clear timetable for Candelario’s return. Earlier in the week, he was seen wearing a walking boot. Candelario stated that: “I want to put my mind in the right way to come back this season. I think we have a really good shot. I put [it] in my mind to come back as soon as I can.” Players wearing walking boots and talking about making it back before the end of the season typically are not looking at minimum IL stints. Candelario is a drop in most cases, especially in 12-team formats.  While his first and third base eligibility is helpful, Candelario’s output this season has been pretty mediocre (20 HR, 47 R, 56 RBI, 4 SB, .225 AVG), and so I do not see him as a priority stash. In the 15-team format, Candelario might be worth holding if – and only if – (i) FAAB options at corner infielder are particularly weak, (ii) a fantasy manager has an extra roster space, and (iii) there are some positive indications about Candelario’s recovery timetable. In all other circumstances, Candelario should be dropped.

Potential Pitcher Drops

Edward Cabrera is rostered in 97% of Main Event leagues and 68% of Online Championship leagues. His “stuff” can look good at times, but that does not justify such high ownership percentages. Cabrera has a 5.65 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, both of which are terrible, and he was only slightly better last season (4.24 ERA, 1.44 WHIP). Cabrera is a “WHIP killer” and always will be unless he develops better control and cuts down on walks. For his career, Cabrera is averaging 5.34 walks per 9 innings. Cabrera certainly is not worth rostering for wins – he has just 2 in 14 games started this season, and the Marlins are unlikely to win a ton of games moving forward. As if this case for dropping Cabrera was not strong enough, consider his upcoming schedule. This week, he starts at the Rockies in Coors Field and then pitches at the Giants. The following three weeks include a home start versus the Phillies, a start at the Pirates and then home starts against the Dodgers and the Braves. Unless managers are punting wins and ratios and solely prioritizing strikeouts, I cannot think of why Cabrera should be rostered so widely (if at all).

In high-stakes fantasy leagues, it often is important to separate the player on the field in-season from that player’s name and reputation, which often is built on prior (sometimes long prior) performance. Walker Buehler strikes me as one example where the 2024 version is not the same player who pitched well for the Dodgers for several years. Thus far this season, Buehler has made 10 starts, lasting only 44.1 innings. He has one win and is whiffing less than a batter per inning (35 K). Worse yet, Buehler’s ratios have been terrible – he’s currently posting a 6.09 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, both of which are extremely damaging to his fantasy teams and a far cry from his career numbers (3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). While Buehler has been a little unlucky in terms of BABIP (.326), his xERA (5.27) and SIERA (4.76) indicate mediocre (or worse) skills. Other than Buehler’s reputation, it is challenging to understand why he is rostered in 98% of Main Event leagues and 83% of Online Championship leagues. While I am an advocate of weighting the backs of players’ baseball cards, sometimes – due to the passage of time, injuries, or both – the player competing today simply is not the same player of old. I have no interest in rostering Buehler and recommend that managers consider cutting him.

The Yankees’ Luis Gil was placed on the 15-day IL this past week with a lower back strain. A late-round draft pick, Gil has been a revelation this season, posting 12 wins, 144 strikeouts in 124.2 innings, and a strong ERA (3.39) and WHIP (1.20). A WHIP at that level is practically unheard of for a starting pitcher with a 12.6% walk rate. To his credit, Gil can be unhittable at times and has allowed only 83 hits, limiting the damage caused by 66 walks. The Yankees reportedly consider Gil’s back strain to be minor, and there is talk that he may return when first eligible on September 5. There are a few danger signs to consider when deciding whether to hold or drop Gil. First, back injuries can be tricky, and there is uncertainty as to whether Gil will return to action in early-September and, equally important, that he will return at a peak performance level. Second, Gil pitched 2 innings in 2023, and his 2024 innings total represents a career high at any level. Third, Clarke Schmidt is working his way back from the 60-day IL and there is at least a possibility that the Yankees will seek to manage Gil’s innings, at least until the playoffs, by having Schmidt – and not Gil – join Gerritt Cole, Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman to complete a five-man rotation, with Gil moving to long relief. Despite these danger signs, Gil should be held if at all possible (especially 15-team leagues). His upside as a starting pitcher for the Yankees is too high to drop at this time, given the possibility of a quick return. If Gil’s return is delayed, and/or the Yankees announce plans to move him to the bullpen, the case for dropping him would be stronger; until then, he should be held if possible.

The Reds’ Andrew Abbott recently was placed on the 15-day IL on Friday, retroactive to last Tuesday, with a shoulder strain. Abbott is eligible to be activated on September 4, but the team has provided no information as to whether that will happen or how much time Abbott is likely to miss. Abbott has had a solid season thus far, with 10 wins, 114 strikeouts over 138 innings, and a 3.72 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. I consider Abbott a drop in most 12-team leagues, but given the scarcity of decent starting pitching in 15-team leagues, I can see fantasy managers holding for a week to see if this will be a minimum IL stint. Abbott is a mediocre pitcher who is out-performing his peripherals (for example, his SIERA is 4.78). His 19.5% K rate and 10.6% K-BB% are not particularly good, and a WHIP of 1.30+ for the second consecutive season is concerning. If Abbott’s injury truly is minor, he still could make four more starts and, among them, there may be some favorable matchups worth playing. On the other hand, if the injury is more serious – and a shoulder strain certainly sounds serious – there is a possibility that the Reds, who are out of legitimate playoff contention, simply shut Abbott down for the season.

Quick Hits

• Rays closer Pete Fairbanks was placed on the 15-day IL this week with a strained right lat. Fairbanks will be shut down for 2-4 weeks and then reevaluated. At this time, it is uncertain whether Fairbanks will return this season and, with the Rays well back in the hunt for a wild-card spot, the team is unlikely to hurry him back absent a startling turnaround in the standings. Fairbanks is a clear drop.

• Earlier this week – of course after lineups had locked – the Cubs decided to make a change at closer by not only removing Hector Neris from the role, but from the team itself. After being released, Neris quickly was snatched up by his former team, the Astros, who recently lost setup man Ryan Pressly to the IL. Like Fairbanks, Neris is a clear drop. He has been shaky (at best) this entire season and only possessed fantasy value due to his opportunity for saves as a team’s closer – a role he will not be sniffing in Houston due to the presence of Josh Hader.

• Out of the blue, following a string of successful starts, the Orioles surprised fantasy managers by placing their recent acquisition, Zach Eflin, on the 15-day IL with shoulder inflammation. Unlike Fairbanks and Neris, Eflin is a clear hold. He is pitching much better as of late, is playing for a stacked team with a pitcher-friendly home park, and, most importantly, is expected to return after a minimum IL stint.

• Tyler Glasnow’s return from elbow tendinitis is going slower than first hoped. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts recently stated that Glasnow will pitch again in the 2024 regular season, but that his recovery will be a “slow process.” With the latest news, fantasy managers should become more pessimistic about Glasnow’s future fantasy contributions and at least consider dropping him. In 12-team leagues, where helpful pitchers routinely are available in FAAB, managers without a “free” roster spot are advised to move on; the call is tougher in 15-team leagues where decent starting pitching is much harder to find in FAAB. Remember, the Dodgers’ sole priority will be getting Glasnow ready for the postseason, not ensuring he provides meaningful fantasy contributions in September.

• The injury news is similarly optimistic for Eflin’s former teammate on the Rays, Zack Littell, who also went on the IL this week with shoulder fatigue. There are reports that Littell is hoping for a minimum IL stint. The case for holding Littell, however, is more tenuous than it is for Eflin. Littell has pitched more innings this season than in any prior year in the majors, and the most since he was in the low minors in 2016. While Littell has strong control, he is not in the same class as Eflin and probably is no more than a matchup play in 15-team leagues. Littell only has 5 wins in 24 starts and, while his 3.89 ERA is serviceable, a 1.31 WHIP detracts from his otherwise limited fantasy value. Littell should be dropped in 12-team leagues and only should be held in 15-team leagues where fantasy managers have ample roster flexibility and limited appealing pitching options in FAAB.

• Jordan Montgomery has been terrible all season. He’s rostered in 100% of Main Event leagues and 88% of Online Championship leagues despite the fact that he compiled a putrid 6.44 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over 95 innings. The Diamondbacks announced recently that Montgomery was being moved to the bullpen. Thus, managers possibly rostering Montgomery for wins (he has 8 in 19 games started) no longer have that excuse for holding onto him. Montgomery is a drop in all formats.

• The Orioles traded Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers for Trevor Rogers. In his first four starts for Baltimore, Rogers pitched 19 innings, won zero games, and gave up 15 earned runs and 35 hits and walks, compiling a 7.11 ERA and 1.84 WHIP for his new team. Earlier this week, the Orioles decided they had seen enough of their new acquisition and sent him down to Triple-A. At this point, there’s no clear (or even obtuse) reason for holding onto Rogers; he should be dropped in all formats.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am challenging myself by focusing solely on pitchers who are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters. 

Except for doubting Spencer Arrighetti – which was a big mistake – last week’s disaster picks were pretty good ones. Thus far, they have compiled only a single win, fewer strikeouts than innings and a 4.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Week 22 below reflects results through yesterday; additional stats accumulated today will be reflected in next week’s article.