Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (8/18)

I have been on vacation this past week and, in keeping with this change of routine, I am taking a break from writing about drops, at least in the introductory section of the article. Fear not, once you get beyond this intro, the remainder of the article will include my usual recommendations on (i) potential hitter drops, (ii) potential pitcher drops and (iii) potential disaster starts to consider avoiding. The intro, however, will focus on something entirely different from strategies relating to player drops. Instead, I am going to discuss potential first rounders for 2025 fantasy drafts.

This Wednesday, August 21, I will join 14 other NFBC veterans (including FTN’s Jenny Butler) in the third annual “Too Early” draft organized by Rob DiPietro. This is a real, $150 entry fee, NFBC Draft Champions (DC) draft. The DC contest is a 50-round draft-and-hold format, with no FAAB, and there is an overall component in addition to competition within each league. The current plan is to draft 11 rounds live on Wednesday night, with the remaining 39 rounds being completed in “slow draft” fashion this winter, sometime after the NFBC’s draft room opens for 2025 drafts. I have participated in the first two of these “Too Early” without success and am hoping for better results this time around. We recently completed the KDS for draft slots based on standings for the 2024 version of this league and, despite sitting in ninth place, I am drafting from the 5-hole. At least for this first DC draft, not all participants desired an early first-round selection (perhaps reflecting the bitter taste experienced by managers picking in the top two spots this past season and selecting Ronald Acuña Jr. or Spencer Strider).

In thinking about how the first round of drafts will go in 2025, I expect recency bias to be an incredibly strong force – as it always is – and for hitters to dominate the first two rounds, at least until pitchers start inching their way up draft boards in time for the high-stakes drafts next March. In my opinion, there is a clear upper tier consisting of three players: Bobby Witt Jr., Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. While I am not yet sure how I would rank those three players, I think their KDS ultimately will be in the order listed. As incredible as Judge’s 2024 season has been thus far, I expect fantasy managers will lean into the elite five-category production of Witt and Ohtani and be willing to possibly sacrifice some power for 30-plus stolen bases. At least as of now, I expect Witt will get the nod over Ohtani due to his eligibility at shortstop. Even if Ohtani has dual-eligibility as a pitcher, most managers probably will underweight that flexibility given his prowess as a hitter and uncertainty regarding Ohtani’s pitching in 2025 coming off of Tommy John Surgery. Judge is putting up elite stats again this season, and if he is drafted third, managers could be getting a bargain.

The second tier of hitters likely will include: Juan Soto, Elly De La Cruz, Gunnar Henderson and Mookie Betts. José Ramírez belongs squarely in that tier, but I would not be surprised if fantasy managers underestimate J-Ram yet again. Assuming Kyle Tucker returns to action relatively soon, a strong finish could secure him a spot somewhere in the middle of Round 1. Ronald Acuña Jr. is an interesting wild card. If it appears that Acuña will be fully recovered by spring training, some managers may push him up, although I strongly suspect that he will start draft season toward the back of Round 1. Thus, I think the second tier of hitters – after the top tier of Witt, Ohtani and Judge – will be between four and seven players deep.

Let’s shift gears to pitchers. A potential “trendy” first rounder is Paul Skenes, who is off to a terrific start to his career and has appeared downright dominant at times. Skenes needs to finish strong to cement being the first pitcher off the board for 2025. He recently has appeared slightly more human, and it is a possibility that he is starting to tire. If Skenes is not the top pitcher in 2025 drafts, it likely will be Tarik Skubal, who has established himself as a true ace this season. Other pitchers who may receive some first-round consideration in 2025 drafts include Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes and Chris Sale. Even after pitching invariably creeps up the draft boards, it is difficult to envision more than two or three pitchers being selected in the first round. 

While a lot can change between now and the official start of the 2025 drafting season, some of the other players who are likely to receive first-round consideration include: (1) Francisco Lindor, who, after a slow start, is compiling another strong season; (2) Fernando Tatís Jr., whose injury-riddled 2024 will cause his price to drop, at least until fantasy managers readjust their focus to a healthy Tatís’ immense upside; (3) Yordan Álvarez, who remains one of the best pure hitters in the game today; (4) Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who probably is a longshot to regain a first-round ADP, but quietly has turned his season around and is putting up big numbers despite a weak supporting cast; (5) the always consistent Freddie Freeman, who remains an elite contributor in the scarce batting average category; (6) Bryce Harper, who missed time but could be poised for a big 2025 season; and (7) Trea Turner, who is capable of elite, five-category performance and, like Harper, plays for a good team in a good park.

Do folks see the first round of 2025 drafts going differently than what I am envisioning in this article? Are there any potential first rounders that you think I have omitted? Please post your thoughts in the Discord – I am curious as to whether people see the first round of 2025 drafts similarly or differently from me, recognizing that a lot can change between now and the end of the 2024 season.

Some of the players who should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

Jazz Chisholm Jr. was placed on the IL on August 14, the day after suffering an injury to his left UCL (elbow). At first, the injury seemed potentially very serious, with an extended absence and even season-ending surgery on the table. A few days later, however, Chisholm indicated that he was pain-free and thought a minimum IL stay was possible. While fantasy managers should not count on Chisholm returning to action quite that fast, the quick turnaround in outlook is encouraging. Fortunately for managers rostering Chisholm, the turnaround occurred prior to FAAB tonight, but this situation is a prime example of why it sometimes is prudent to hold an injured player for a week – even when the injury appears serious – in order to gain additional information prior to making what might be a premature drop. At this point, Chisholm is a hold in all formats barring another change in his outlook.

Fernando Tatís Jr. is on the 60-day IL with a femoral stress reaction. Over the past month, the news on Tatís has been limited. Recently, Padres manager Mike Shildt indicated that Tatís is “taking those next steps” toward a recovery, and “once he ramps up, he’ll be getting ready pretty quickly, I imagine.” Although this news was interpreted favorably by most media sources, as someone holding Tatís, I found it concerning, focusing on: (1) Tatís apparently is not doing much other than long toss; (2) despite being out since June 21, Tatís still is not ready to ramp up activities; and (3) there is no timetable for his return. Inasmuch as Tatís still has healing left to do, is not yet ready to perform the full gamut of baseball activities, and probably is looking at an extended rehab stint after missing more than two months, it is difficult to envision Tatís returning before the second week in September, and that might be the best-case scenario. For the vast majority of players, these circumstances would justify dropping them. Truly elite players – Tatís qualifies as one – justify being held even after most players are discarded. Managers without sufficient roster flexibility could consider dropping Tatís. That noted, managers who can afford to continue holding Tatís should do so, at least for now. If Tatís is not more active by this time next week, however, it may be time to say goodbye.

Alex Verdugo is an everyday player for a strong team. He hits in a strong lineup and plays in a home park that is very favorable for left-handed batters. Despite all this, Verdugo has been terrible for quite some time and should at least be evaluated as a potential drop. Verdugo is now hitting .233 on the season. Since July 1, Verdugo has 1 HR and 0 SB. He is a decent source of counting stats (61 R and 53 RBI) but is hurting fantasy teams in HR, SB and AVG. For most teams, Verdugo is a hold; outfielders who play everyday on a strong team and with a favorable home park should not be dropped casually. Teams prioritizing HR and/or SB, however, may need to look for alternatives who can contribute to the categories where help is needed the most.

In 2023, Giants catcher Patrick Bailey hit .293 in the first half of the season (140 AB) and .188 in the second half (186 AB). Bailey’s 2023 second-half collapse may be repeating itself this season. Bailey hit .283 in the first half (230 AB) but currently is hitting .120 in the second half (92 AB). Bailey’s playing time is safe – he’s one of the best fielding catchers in the game – but that provides little solace for fantasy managers rostering him if his offense borders on nonexistent. The decision whether to move on from Bailey is team dependent, primarily based on the alternatives available. The Giants do not have a particularly potent lineup, and Bailey lacks strong power or speed. Thus, his stats should be easily replaceable in a 12-team league, whereas clear-cut upgrades will be tougher to find in 15-team leagues. Given Bailey’s lack of output (his last home run was on July 10), there may be upgrades available in many leagues. Even if managers elect to hold Bailey tonight due to a paucity of appealing alternatives, his performance should be monitored weekly, as should that of the potential FAAB acquisitions at catcher.

Some quick hits:

• Wenceel Perez is on the IL with an oblique strain. It appears unlikely that Perez will return this season. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch recently stated the following regarding Perez: “I don’t know how long it’s going to be or what we can salvage from the season. We’ll do our best to get him healthy and hopefully get him back in some games before the end of the year.” Perez is a clear drop in all formats. Even if Perez makes it back this season, it likely will be in late-September, when his contributions will be limited. He should not be held until then in the hope that he makes it back.

• Evan Carter also is unlikely to return this season. On August 4, it was reported that Carter – on the 60-day IL with a back strain – will not require surgery but hopes to resume swinging a bat in 9-10 weeks. If Carter hopes to start swinging a bat in October, he should not be on fantasy teams in August. He is a drop in all formats.

• Jordan Walker was recalled to the majors this week. Some fantasy managers either anticipated the call-up and acquired Walker or held him for months. While Walker has long-term upside, he has not hit well in the majors this season (0 HR, .152 AVG) and is being used in a short-side platoon role. While that could change, Walker has no fantasy value right now and is a drop in all formats.

• Coby Mayo is an elite prospect but struggled in his first seven MLB games, with only 1 hit in 17 at bats. On the vast majority of teams, Mayo would have been promoted for the rest of the season and been given a long leash. The Orioles are stacked, however, and do not need Mayo to compete for a World Series. Baltimore is in a tight battle with the Yankees for the division title and decided to send Mayo back to Triple-A rather than affording him more time to get acclimated to MLB hitting. While an injury could provide Mayo with another chance this season, managers should not be rostering demoted players in the hopes that an injury opens up a second chance. Mayo is a drop in all formats.

• Having attempted to rest and recover, apparently unsuccessfully, Christian Yelich opted for season-ending back surgery in the hopes of being 100% for the 2025 season. He is a must-drop in all formats.

Potential Pitcher Drops

The Dodgers’ Tyler Glasnow was placed on the 15-day IL this week with elbow tendinitis. At this point in the season, the vast majority of new pitcher injuries should signal potential drops. With aces, however, caution should be exercised. Glasnow has had an excellent season for the Dodgers (9 wins, 168 K in 134 IP, 3.49 ERA, elite 0.95 WHIP) and has already surpassed his career-high in MLB innings pitched. He may be tiring, however, and has a 4.35 ERA over his last five starts. Glasnow apparently wanted to pitch through the injury and the Dodgers are hopeful he will miss the minimum amount of time. While fantasy managers rostering Glasnow should similarly hope for a short IL stint, they should not assume it will happen. As discussed in prior articles, teams and players are notoriously inaccurate when it comes to predicting injury return dates. Even if Glasnow takes an extra week or two, he is worth holding in most contexts, especially in 15-team leagues where the starting pitching available in FAAB is mostly limited to unappealing options.

After missing over three months of the season and debuting on July 3, Gavin Williams has been a disappointment. Following a strong rookie campaign (3 W, 81 K in 82 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), fantasy managers expecting Williams to take the next step, including myself, have been left wanting more. Williams has whiffed more than a batter per inning (47 K in 43 IP) but has a 5.02 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Williams has been hurt by a .339 BABIP but also has pitched inefficiently and has not gone beyond six innings in any start. Williams could improve; the Guardians do a very good job with starting pitchers and are a strong team. Williams is a hold in the 15-team format; for a team more concerned with ratios than strikeouts, he can be dropped in 12-team leagues, although I would hesitate to drop Williams for just anyone and probably would keep FAAB strings dropping him fairly short.

Craig Kimbrel still is rostered in 85% or more of Main Event and Online Championship leagues. His last save was July 7. Since that time, the Orioles traded for Gregory Soto and Seranthony Domínguez, and Domínguez has tallied saves in his last two appearances. While it is always possible that Domínguez implodes and the Orioles go back to Kimbrel in the ninth inning, such a move does not appear imminent. As a non-closer, Kimbrel has limited fantasy value (he had a 6.52 ERA in July over 9.2 IP, and currently has a 9.00 ERA in August over 4 IP). With six weeks left in the season, fantasy managers need to evaluate the likelihood of: (1) Domínguez faltering; (2) Kimbrel improving upon recent performance; and (3) the Orioles deciding to remove Domínguez from the closer role in favor of Kimbrel. That likelihood should be considered in the context of: (1) the extent to which continuing to hold Kimbrel limits a team’s roster flexibility; (2) the alternatives available if dropping Kimbrel, including starting pitchers and an extra bat as well as other closer speculations; and (3) the competitiveness of the saves category and whether it represents a high priority for a team above other fantasy categories. In all or most of my 15-team leagues, I would drop Kimbrel, but each team’s situation is different.

Max Meyer got off to a strong start this season. In his first three starts, Meyer picked up two wins and allowed only 4 ER in 17 IP (2.12 ERA), while posting a 14/3 K/BB ratio. Based on such a strong start, the Marlins, being a terribly-run organization, inexplicably demoted Meyer. Fantasy managers stashing Meyer finally got their wish when Miami recalled him to start on July 27. Unfortunately, the Meyer pitching now is not the same guy who was demoted in mid-April. In five starts since his recall, Meyer has allowed 21 ER in 23.1 IP (8.10 ERA). In three of his five starts, Meyer only lasted 4 IP, and his 19/9 K/BB ratio in those games includes two starts where he walked three batters in only four innings pitched. Meyer is home against the Cubs this week and then travels to Coors to take on the Rockies the following week. In 15-team formats, I can see throwing Meyer this week and then benching him the next week. Depending on how he does, it may be time to move on, and I would be willing to drop Meyer now for an appealing alternative in FAAB. The Marlins are a bad team, and Meyer is unlikely to be a positive contributor in wins. In 12-team leagues, I would drop Meyer now.

Continuing with another pitcher who started off strong but is fading fast, Nick Lodolo makes this week’s list of potential drops. Thus far this season, Lodolo has been a good source of wins (9) and strikeouts (113 in 110.2 IP). Although his ERA (4.55) is lousy, Lodolo’s WHIP (1.20) is solid. Importantly, however, evaluating Lodolo’s performance on a season-long basis misses a clear trend suggesting that he is tiring and/or possibly injured. Here are Lodolo’s ratios by month:

In his last four starts, Lodolo has allowed 21 ER in only 19.1 IP. Lodolo’s next two starts are favorable (at Pittsburgh this week and then home against Oakland the following week), but I am uncertain if he can turn things around the way he is pitching. Lodolo only pitched 41.2 innings last season across four levels and may be tiring (he is up to 118.1 total IP this season). Lodolo is a drop in most (but not all) 12-team contexts, and also should be considered as a potential drop in 15-team leagues. Teams prioritizing strikeouts should consider holding Lodolo, while teams prioritizing ratios should drop him. Managers electing to hold Lodolo should be aware that in 2024, he is sporting a strong 3.05 ERA on the road, but his home ERA is 6.09.

Justin Martinez is off to a strong start as the Diamondbacks closer. Paul Sewald and A.J. Puk remain heavily rostered – especially in Main Event leagues (81% and 79%, respectively) – but such ownership percentages appear too high. Martinez is pitching well and, even if he were to falter to the point where Arizona decided another change at closer is warranted, it is far from certain whether Sewald or Puk would get the role, and the team still has Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson pitching in higher-leverage situations. When considering potential saves speculations, it is preferable to prioritize relievers who clearly are the “next man up” for their teams, and it is far from certain whether either Sewald or Puk fits that bill. Both can be considered drops in 15-team leagues and should not be rostered in 12-teamers.

Max Scherzer reportedly is feeling good after an injection in his tired right shoulder. Scherzer went on the IL on August 2 due to shoulder fatigue. He is throwing bullpens now but is without a clear timetable for return. Scherzer has only made eight starts this season but has pitched relatively well in those games (2 W, 38 K in 39.1 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). While Scherzer no longer is an ace, he still is an above-average pitcher when healthy. Given the recent positive news and that he’s actively throwing bullpens, coupled with the fact that a veteran like Scherzer is unlikely to need an extended rehab stint in the minors, I would hold for at least another week in 15-team leagues before reassessing his progress. Teams with strong pitching and/or very limited roster flexibility in 12-team formats can consider moving on from Scherzer, but otherwise also should hold for now.

Finally, the Reds’ Hunter Greene was surprisingly placed on the 15-day IL on Thursday with right elbow soreness. Greene is having a terrific season (9 W, 162 K in 143.1 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) and it presently is not clear when he will return. Inasmuch as there are only six weeks left in the season and Greene will be out for almost two of them, at a minimum, he is a potential drop. Asked about the seriousness of Greene’s injury, Reds President of Baseball Operations Nick Krall stated: “We put him on the IL for precautionary reasons. We are going to get him an MRI in the next couple of days, and we’re just going to try and figure that out.” I have not been able to find any post-MRI prognosis on Greene’s injury and recommend that fantasy managers hold for at least one week in the hopes of getting a better read on his likely return. If Greene were able to return in early-September, his performance to date warrants holding him in virtually all contexts. As we know, however, things often do not go as planned, and many players experience more serious injuries, and longer recovery times, than indicated by teams’ initial reports. If there are any reports of a more serious injury to Greene, he would become a clear-cut drop for me. Time is short, and the Reds are unlikely to make the playoffs. If the road to a wild-card spot appears unlikely, the Reds may be well served by shutting Greene down and getting him healthy for the 2025 season.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am challenging myself by focusing solely on pitchers who are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters. 

Notwithstanding a gem yesterday by Brayan Bello, my Week 21 disaster selections still performed relatively poorly as a group. In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “disaster” picks thus far. Week 21 reflects results through yesterday; any additional stats accumulated today will be reflected in next week’s article.