Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (7/21)

I happen to be an optimistic person by nature. My wife sometimes accuses me of going through life with rose-colored glasses. I’m not sure why I am that way, but I definitely am a “half full” as opposed to a “half empty” type of guy. In most facets of life, being optimistic can be helpful, or at least causes little harm. Our crazy hobby/obsession of fantasy baseball, however, provides frequent opportunities for an overly optimistic perspective to be counterproductive to success. I’m referring here to the stashing of injured players and, specifically, the optimistic assumptions we fantasy managers tend to make about when such players will be activated and the levels at which they will perform when they do return.

Perhaps I’m mistaken, but it seems as if the strategy of stashing injured players has grown in popularity within NFBC circles, at least this season. Perhaps a higher percentage of fantasy difference-makers have been hurt this season compared to prior ones, although I’m not sure if that is true. Alternatively, maybe fantasy managers are attempting more injury stashes because fewer impactful prospects have entered the player pool this season, leaving limited means by which to improve one’s teams. Regardless of the reasons, injured players are being stashed left and right in high-stakes leagues.

In order to evaluate the potential pros and cons of dedicating a precious bench spot – and incurring the acquisition cost and loss of roster flexibility – to stash an injured player, managers must make certain assumptions as to when that player will return to action. This is precisely where having an optimistic outlook can be harmful; in this area, it is decidedly better, in my opinion, to be pessimistic about players’ injury timelines, and their level of performance immediately upon activation. (I am guessing most fantasy managers acquiring or stashing Noelvi Marte were expecting more than 1 HR, 2 SB, and a .171 AVG in his first 19 games back.)

Sure, sometimes players come back from injury sooner than anticipated. Willson Contreras is a great example of a faster-than-expected return. Contreras suffered a broken arm May 7 after being hit by a J.D. Martinez swing. Following surgery, Contreras was expected to return around the All-Star break. Instead, Contreras easily beat that expectation and, to the delight of fantasy managers who had stashed him, returned to the Cardinals’ lineup June 24. For every Contreras, however, there are numerous players who take longer – sometimes much longer – than anticipated to recover from injury. Current examples of such players include, but are not limited to: Kyle Tucker, Michael Harris II, Alex Cobb, Max Muncy, Josh Jung, Triston Casas and Justin Verlander. (As I write this, I am envisioning readers mentally adding more players to this list.)

Why do players so frequently take longer than expected to return from injury? After all, the vast majority of players are young, in tremendous physical shape, and presumably are receiving the best medical care possible with advanced facilities available to them for rehab purposes. Part of the problem, I think, is that players, managers and front offices all are too optimistic about likely return dates. By and large, players are almost always over-confident in their ability to return from injury at, or even before, the low range of any estimated recovery period. It is just how most players are wired. Moreover, while many players experience setbacks – some minor and others major – recovery estimates made public tend to assume the absence of any setbacks.

What, then, should fantasy managers do? Well, first and foremost, the purpose of this article is NOT to dissuade managers from stashing any injured players. Stashing can be a very effective strategy, at times, and is a temptation to which I frequently succumb, sometimes to my detriment. Here are some recommendations for managers to incorporate into their evaluation of whether to acquire and stash an injured player:

• Initially, evaluate the injury based on the best-available information. Is it a common injury or something more unusual? How likely or unlikely is it that the player will experience a setback? For instance, an oblique injury presents a higher risk for a setback than a broken finger. How likely is the injury to impact the player’s future performance? A hamstring injury may have more long-lasting impacts on a player that derives much of his value from stealing bases than it would a power hitter. In addition to factoring in the risk of a longer-than-expected recovery time, fantasy managers would be well served to assume that an injured player will need some time after activation to return to peak performance. In many cases, players return to action at something less than 100% health, and their production rarely is optimal right out of the gate.
• Assume that the player will not return in the minimum time estimated. For instance, suppose a team indicates that an injured player is likely to be out 4-6 weeks. In evaluating whether to stash that player, fantasy managers would be better off assuming at least a six-week recovery period. If the manager concludes that the stash is an optimal strategy despite a conservative recovery estimate, then the same conclusion follows if the player makes it back sooner. The converse, however, is not necessarily true. If the manager moves forward with the stash assuming a four-week recovery period and the player is out for six weeks (or longer), the strategy may have been suboptimal to start. How many times have we managers thought that we never would have stashed Player X had we only known he would be out for that long?
• Evaluate your team’s ability to accommodate an extended stash. How many other roster spots currently are filled with injured players? How likely is it that your team may lose a closer by the trade deadline and need extra roster spots to speculate on potential closers? Also, evaluate the realistic injury recovery period against the time remaining in the season. For instance, it is far easier to justify commencing what might be a six-week stash in late April, with over five months left in the season, than it is in late July, with barely over months left.
• Evaluate the potential stash critically. This late into the season, it probably does not make sense to engage in a lengthy stash unless the player has “top 100” (or higher) fantasy value. Moreover, does the player match your team’s categorical needs? For instance, if a team is strong in runs, home runs and RBIs but is lacking in stolen bases and average, Max Muncy would be a terrible stash because resources would be expended, and roster flexibility sacrificed, in order to eventually add a player that contributes to the categories in which the team already is strong, and who provides little or no assistance in the categories where production is most needed. While this perhaps is an extreme example, managers should evaluate critically just how much of a difference the addition of a player is likely to make in the standings before embarking on a time-consuming and costly stash.
• Finally, fantasy managers should reevaluate all stashes every week as part of their FAAB process. Just because you decided to stash an injured player three weeks ago does not mean you have to hold that player for another three weeks until he hopefully is activated. Circumstances change all the time. The player’s recovery period may have changed, due to a setback or merely an updated estimate. The categorical and/or positional need for the particular player may have lessened over time, such that the case for continuing the stash has become less compelling. At a minimum, managers should be researching the most up-to-date news on every injured stash before FAAB runs on Sunday night and incorporating that news into an evaluation of whether continuing or abandoning the stash is the optimal strategy moving forward.

Some of the players that should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

For fantasy baseball purposes, Will Benson can be tantalizing. He has solid power (10 HR) and has posted double-digit barrel rates in 2023 and, to date, in 2024. He combines that power with legitimate speed, tallying 19 stolen bases last season and 11 so far this season. Benson also plays in an extremely friendly hitter’s park. So, what’s not to like? Actually, plenty. To start, Benson has trouble hitting a baseball, which is an important skill. His 64.3% contract rate in 2024 is putrid. He is running a 40.3% strikeout rate (up 9% from last year) – he has a remarkable 118 strikeouts in only 258 at bats. Consequently, Benson is hitting .190 for the season and it is difficult to envision that average improving materially given his inability to make consistent contact. Benson also is a platoon bat who sits regularly versus left-handed pitchers (and is hitting only .125 against them when given the chance). Benson also tends to hit at or near the bottom of the Reds’ lineup, limiting his plate appearances and counting stats. While Benson has 10 HR and 11 SB, he only has 62 R+RBI in 89 games. Despite the fact that Benson can look fantastic in limited stretches and exhibit freak athleticism, he is a clear drop in 12-team leagues and many 15-team leagues. In 15-teamers, it is tough to resist a player that can post double-digit homers and steals, and depending upon where teams are in the standings in their respective leagues, the trade-off for those stats at the expense of batting average and limited contributions in R and RBI may be worth it. Still, fantasy managers are advised not to underestimate the damage that a .190 average can do to their standings within that category.

The Braves’ Michael Hariis II suffered a grade two hamstring strain June 14 and was placed on the IL the following day. Harris has yet to return or even play in rehab games. At the time of his injury, Harris was underperforming his draft cost, with 5 HR, 8 SB, 50 R+RBI, and a .250 AVG in 67 games (278 PA). The latest news coming out of Braves camp earlier this week is that Harris may not return for another 2-3 weeks. Harris presents one of the more interesting hold/drop calls this week. When healthy, he has good – not great – power and speed and has hit for a high average (.297 and .293 in 2022 and 2023, respectively), which is especially valuable. My concerns about holding Harris include: (1) 2-3 weeks still is a material amount of time given what’s left in the season, and he could wind-up missing more time; (2) Jarred Kelenic has done a respectable job hitting leadoff, and there’s a strong likelihood that Harris hits down in the lineup, at least initially, upon his return; (3) given the nature of his injury, I am uncertain about whether Harris will attempt to many steal bases upon his return; (4) the Braves’ lineup is far less potent than last season, which will constrain Harris’ counting stats; and (5) there are no guarantees that Harris plays at his 2022-2023 level upon his return; there’s at least a decent likelihood he continues to underperform. Notwithstanding these concerns, I lean towards holding Harris; his upside is legitimate and, if he performs up to his capabilities should provide managers with decent-to-strong five-category contributions. If electing to stash Harris – which is more compelling in 15-teamers than 12-teamers – managers should research the latest news on him weekly prior to FAAB and consider dropping him if they learn of any setbacks.

Let’s now take another look at two long-injured players: Triston Casas and Josh Jung. When healthy, both players represent strong options at corner infield, which seems especially weak this season. Casas has not played since April 20 and, while the expectations were for him to return in early July (then mid-July, then early August), the latest news is discouraging. Thus far, Casas only has progressed to taking soft toss; in other words, he still is not capable of taking “regular” batting practice. Earlier this week, Red Sox manager Alex Cora indicated to reporters that Casas is still “far” away from going on a rehab assignment. If true, it now seems unlikely that we will see Casas before late August. I had Casas stashed on five teams (now four) and held onto him because: (1) I had the roster space; and (2) I wanted an upgrade at corner infield and the options available in FAAB were decidedly unappealing. Importantly, as advised on numerous occasions, when stashing a player, that stash should be reevaluated on a weekly basis as part of your FAAB process. I dropped Casas in one league last week because a pitcher I liked unexpectedly became available and I pounced, swapping Casas for him. This week, I intend to drop Casas in my other leagues. While dropping my remaining shares of Casas solidifies the now obvious conclusion that he was an unsuccessful stash, being stubborn and continuing to hold in the face of discouraging news is counterproductive. The cost of acquiring and holding onto Casas for multiple weeks is now sunk; what matters now is whether continuing to stash him represents an optimal strategy. That no longer seems the case, at least for my teams. Given the latest news about how long Casas likely will remain sidelined, I think he’s a drop. (Note: Just because a manager drops Casas – or any player – does not mean that the manager is precluded from attempting to reacquire him closer to the expected return date.)

The news on Jung is decidedly more optimistic. Although Jung was expected back weeks ago prior to suffering a setback, his return may not be too far off. Saturday, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy declined to place a specific timeline on Jung but did state, “I’d say by the first of August he could be in a position to help us” (which, to me, sounds decidedly like placing a timeline on him). While the risk of another setback remains, all we can do as fantasy managers is evaluate the best news available to us, ideally with a fair dose of skepticism mixed in. Similar to Casas, at this point the time spent stashing Jung is a sunk cost and irrelevant to the hold/drop decision. That decision should be made looking forward. Even if I treat Bochy’s comment with skepticism and assume Jung returns a week or two later, I think rostering him for the final 6-7 weeks is worth continuing to hold him for another 2-4 weeks, at least in 15-team leagues, and probably a majority of 12-team leagues. Although there is a real risk that Jung underperforms expectations given the nature of his injury (broken wrist) and long layoff, he normally is an impact bat at what this season is one of the weakest positions for fantasy. Jung should hit in the middle of the Rangers’ lineup, and with his addition, I can foresee Texas becoming a more potent offense down the stretch.

In last week’s article, I offered something less than a hearty endorsement of Bo Bichette, who has been much worse than most people realize. In his first game following the All-Star break, Bichette suffered a moderate calf strain. According to Blue Jays manager John Schneider, Bichette will miss “multiple weeks.” At this point, it is safe to drop Bichette in both 12-team and 15-team formats. Bichette has been truly bad this season (4 HR, 5 SB, 59 R+RBI, and .222 AVG in 80 games). He now probably will miss three weeks minimum and easily could be gone for a month or longer. The Blue Jays are going nowhere this season, and it is tough to envision Bichette being great post-injury when he’s struggled all season. It also seems unreasonable to expect Bichette to run much, if at all, coming off a calf injury and playing in meaningless games.

Spencer Torkelson was having a terrible 2024 season, got demoted to Triple-A, has not played in the majors since June 1, and yet still is rostered in two-thirds of Main Event leagues and almost one third of Online Championship leagues. While I’ve engaged in some stashes that, in retrospect, now appear to have been mistakes (see Casas, Triston), the case for stashing Torkelson puzzles me. In 54 games with the Tigers, Torkelson had 4 HR, 0 SB, 42 R+RBI, and hit .201. In other words, there was little to nothing redeeming about his performance. Still, the case for rostering Torkelson still made sense; he had started off slowly in 2023 but came on strong in the second half and finished strong (31 HR, 3 SB, 182 R+RBI, and .233 AVG). The case for dropping Torkelson solidified when the Tigers demoted him but, even then, I understood the decision to stash him hoping for a quick callup. When stashing a player in the minors, however, fantasy managers should track how that player is performing as part of their weekly FAAB process. In Torkelson’s case, he still is not playing particularly well. Heading into Sunday, in 36 games in Triple-A (169 PA), Torkelson has 5 HR, 1 SB, 45 R+RBI and is hitting .234. Disconcertingly, Torkelson is striking out at a 30.2% clip, which is even higher than his MLB rate (which is just under 25%). Sure, there is a possibility the Tigers see progress not reflected in the numbers and recall Torkelson, or that an injury leads to his promotion. If that happens and he rakes, please accept my apologies. At this point, however, the most likely outcome is that Torkelson continues to toil away in the minors until September, or possibly for the remainder of the season. His performance in Triple-A does not warrant a promotion and, as far as I can see, Torkelson has done nothing in 2024 to merit the faith required to continue stashing him roughly seven weeks after his demotion.

In contrast to Torkelson, Jackson Holliday is doing well in Triple-A. The Orioles’ top prospect, who was demoted April 26 following a rough introduction to the majors (0 HR, 0 SB, 6 R+RBI, .059 AVG in 36 PA), is starting to compile stats befitting his pedigree (10 HR, 105 R+RBI, 7 SB, .278 AVG in 65 G with 316 PA). It is encouraging to see Holliday’s walk rate exceeding his strikeout rate. Despite this, I am not sure Holliday is worth rostering, and hope subscribers have not been stashing him since April. That noted, Holliday presents an interesting hold/drop decision. Holliday is still only 20 years old, and the Orioles are playing great without him. They do not need him. So, why hold (or acquire) Holliday now? I think the case rests on the July 30 trade deadline. In addition to having one of the best major league rosters, the Orioles’ farm system is stocked, but they have a clear need for starting pitching. Indeed, it would be very surprising if the trade deadline came and went without the Orioles dealing multiple hitters for at least one and possibly two quality starting pitchers. While I would be shocked if Holliday is dealt, there certainly is a possibility that other players are moved presenting an opportunity for Holliday to return to the majors for a second go-round. Thus, while I would not hold Holliday on a long-term basis (and am unlikely to acquire him myself), a short-term stash may have some merit for a team needing middle infield help (notwithstanding the very real risk that, as someone who still needs fake ID to buy a beer, Holliday still may not be ready to contribute meaningfully at the big league level).

Potential Pitcher Drops

Every now and then, a player is rostered much more heavily than he deserves. Frankie Montas – rostered in 100% and 69% of Main Event and Online Championship leagues, respectively – strikes me as such a player. In 2021, Montas had a strong season pitching for Oakland, making 32 starts and compiling 13 wins, 207 strikeouts, and solid ratios (3.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) over 187 innings. The Montas pitching now for Cincinnati is not that guy. Thus far in 2024, Montas has made 18 starts and has only 4 wins. He is striking out batters at a lower rate (72 in 89 innings) and his ratios (4.85 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) are lousy. Indeed, one can argue that Montas is hurting fantasy managers in all four pitching categories (W, K, ERA, WHIP) that starting pitchers can impact. Team context certainly cannot justify Montas’s fantasy popularity – he pitches for a team with a sub-.500 record and his home park routinely ranks as one of the very worst (if not the worst) for pitchers. Looking under the hood, I see nothing particularly redeeming. Montas has subpar strikeout (18.8%) and walk (9.9%) rates, resulting in a lousy 8.9% K-BB%. Montas allows a fair amount of hard contact (41.6% HardHit%) and his 1.42 HR/9 is not good. Montas’s xERA (4.79) and SIERA (4.78) are right in line with his ERA (4.85), and so it does not appear that he’s merely been unlucky. Rather, Montas has just been bad. Fantasy managers in 12-team leagues can do better and, perhaps with some diligence, Montas also can be upgraded in 15-teamers. At best, Montas is a match-up play, for instance, on the road against weaker lineups. Managers starting Montas all or most weeks may not realize just how poorly he’s been pitching; folks reading this article now have been warned.

Ryan Weathers was having a surprisingly strong season for Miami prior to getting hurt. Through June 7, Weathers had made 13 starts and, while he earned only 3 wins on the offensively challenged Marlins, Weathers had solid strikeout numbers (67 in 71 innings) and ratios (3.55 ERA, 1.14) while posting career-best strikeout (22.5%) and walk (6.7%) walk rates. Unfortunately, Weathers was lifted early in his June 7 start with a finger sprain and, the next day, was placed on the 15-day IL. June 17, it was reported that Weathers was asymptomatic, but was shut down until he could be evaluated the following week. On June 25, it was reported that Weathers would be evaluated later that week. It is not clear if such an evaluation ever took place but, July 2, it was reported that Weathers would be evaluated (or re-evaluated) in 1-to-2 weeks. Then, July 7, the Marlins transferred Weathers to the 60-day IL, ensuring that he would not return before Aug. 9. The question now is whether Weathers should be held. In my opinion, he should be dropped by fantasy managers in 12-team leagues and the vast majority of 15-team leagues. A review of the news on Weathers reveals nothing new; it appears he still remains in shutdown mode and there are no recent forecasts as to when he may return to action. Even when Weathers is cleared to throw, having missed so much time, he will need to start and finish a complete throwing progression. Weathers probably is looking at a three- to four-week buildup after he is cleared to throw, and that assumes no setbacks. Even if Weathers is able to return by late-August – which may be optimistic – there are no guarantees that he will be able to pitch as effectively as he did early in the season. In Weather’s case, it is important to remember that, prior to 2024, he was a below-average MLB pitcher. Managers also should consider Weather’s team context – the Marlins are a bad team that will be selling at the trade deadline. The team’s already weak lineup and bullpen are likely to be even worse by the time Weathers returns, thereby further lessening his prospects to accumulate wins. Managers in 12-team leagues should drop Weathers tonight, and so, too, should managers in 15-team leagues (unless, perhaps, they really believe in – or are related to – Weathers and have a free roster spot they do not anticipate using for 4-6 weeks).

The Cubs’ Javier Assad recently returned to action following a forearm strain. He currently lines up for two starts next week (v. MIL and @ KC) and likely will be started in the majority of leagues. Assad has only 4 wins, but he’s pitched to a 3.27 ERA and records almost a strikeout per inning. As someone who has started Assad multiple times in a very high-stakes league, I cannot criticize fantasy managers for using him. What I will do now, however, is recommend that managers proceed with caution, and, at least in 12-teamers, evaluate alternate options. Quite simply, Assad is not as good as some of his surface stats may indicate. Initially, Assad has pitched only 85.1 innings in 17 starts; in other words, he barely averages 5 innings per start (explaining, in part, the lack of wins). Assad also tends to pitch to a high WHIP (1.46 in 2022, 1.23 in 2023, 1.35 in 2024). Assad’s 4.73 xERA and 4.40 SIERA indicate that his 3.27 ERA may reflect more than a fair bit of luck. While Assad has a respectable 21.4% strikeout rate, his swinging strike rate is a terrible 6.3%, indicating that there’s a good chance his strikeout rate will decline. Assad’s 9.5% walk rate also is concerning and, if his favorable 84.1% LOB% regresses, likely will hurt Assad’s ERA as well as his WHIP. Proceed with caution.

Yusei Kikuchi has been a frustrating pitcher to roster this season. At times he looks fantastic racking up strikeouts; on other occasions, he struggles to get out of innings and can tank a team’s ratios in the blink of an eye. For the season, he has a very strong 125 strikeouts, but his ratios leave much to be desired (4.54 ERA, 1.31 WHIP). Kikuchi also has only 4 wins in 21 starts, due in part to a lack of run and bullpen support. But should Kikuchi – who is 100% owned in the Main Event and the Online Championship – be considered a drop? The case for dropping Kikuchi is that while his strikeouts are a clear strength, he seemingly is hurting fantasy managers in the other three categories impacted by starting pitchers (W, ERA, and WHIP). While there is some validity to this argument, the decision to hold or drop should be based on a manager’s expectations looking forward, not backwards. Kikuchi’s stats to date cannot be changed, nor are they necessarily highly indicative of his likely stats for the rest of the season. Evaluating Kikuchi’s underlying skills reveals a lot of positives. He has excellent strikeout (26.4%) and walk (5.9%) rates, resulting in a K-BB% over 20%. Kikuchi’s walk rate is the lowest of his career, and the strong strikeout rate is fully supported by an excellent 12.4% swinging strike rate. Kikuchi’s SIERA is 3.41, which is over a run lower than his ERA, suggesting he may be getting unlucky. Kikuchi has a high BABIP (.334), although he also allows a lot of hard contact so the high BABIP may be justified. His prospects for wins – which appear low now – could get worse if the Blue Jays engage in a sell-off, although they also could improve if he is part of that sell-off and traded to a contender. While Kikuchi may continue to challenge the sanity (and blood pressure) of his managers, I think the underlying skills warrant holding him in virtually all contexts. One basic rule to consider is that managers in 15-team leagues should not drop starting pitchers with K-BB% in excess of 20%. I also would hold Kikuchi in 12-team leagues, with perhaps an exception for teams that already are very strong in strikeouts but need to gain ground in wins and WHIP (I am more optimistic that Kikuchi can rebound in ERA than in WHIP).

Landon Knack currently is a member of the Dodgers’ rotation, although his future role is far from certain. Thus far, Knack has pitched well. In 39 innings (7 starts, 8 appearances total), Knack has 36 strikeouts and has posted very strong ratios (3.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP). Before getting too excited, a peek under the covers indicates that Knack may be over his skis; for instance, his xERA and SIERA are 4.02 and 3.99, respectively. Knack has benefitted from a very lucky BABIP (.223) and LOB% (91.2%), both of which would be expected to regress over the long run. Knack is projected to face the Giants this week at home, which probably is worth throwing on most teams. Knack’s role is tenuous, however, because this week the Dodgers are expected to welcome Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back. Additionally, the Dodgers still are hoping to add Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler back to the rotation in the coming weeks. It is safe to assume that, as the Dodgers’ rotation gets healthy, Knack will lose his role, and likely return to the minors. Thus, absent continued health woes for Dodger starting pitchers (which is possible), Knack eventually will be a drop; the only real question relates to timing. If managers like Knack’s scheduled home start against the Giants (assuming the start is confirmed), then he should be held. Knack also could get several more starts, as it is at least possible he remains in the rotation until Yamamoto and/or Buehler are activated. That noted, Knack would line up at San Diego and then home against Philadelphia after this week – if he remains in the rotation – and neither strike me as a great matchup for him. In 15-team leagues, I would hold Knack until it is clear he is being displaced in the rotation. In a 12-teamer, I can see holding for at least a week, although I probably would be willing to say good-bye if I needed a drop to acquire a comparable or better starter with a more secure role.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers that I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers that are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am challenging myself by focusing solely on pitchers that are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters.

In last week’s article, I lambasted the performance of my Week 16 disaster start selections. While criticism of those selections was deserved, I can report that a truly disastrous start by Yusei Kikuchi last Sunday elevated the ERA of my Week 16 picks from 2.51 to a more respectable 3.59. Turning to Week 17, I have little to report. Three of the five pitchers projected last Sunday to pitch this week and selected as potential disaster starts – Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell and Zack Littell – were pushed back until this coming week. Of the other two pitchers selected, Brayan Bello had a decent start yesterday and Dean Kremer pitches later today. In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “disaster” picks thus far. Week 17 reflects Bello’s start and will be updated next week to account for Kremer’s outing.