Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (7/14)

As we head into the All-Star break, most fantasy managers probably are looking forward to a brief respite from the long grind of the baseball season. Without question, managers – particularly those with a large number of teams – should take advantage of the downtime and recharge their batteries for the second-half of the season. For those managers who have a hard time stepping away, however, there are certain useful tasks that can be accomplished during the break, or at any time in the coming weeks.

First, this is a good time to take stock of your teams’ rosters. During the fantasy baseball season, managers tend to focus predominantly on evaluating potential acquisitions in FAAB, sometimes at the expense of tracking how their own players are performing. For instance, here are some facts concerning the performance of highly-rostered players during the months of May and June (May 1 – June 30):

• Wenceel Perez had 0 HR in 184 AB.

• Justin Turner (142 AB), Mark Canha (171 AB), Josh Rojas (167 AB), Maikel Garcia (224 AB), Corbin Carroll (191 AB) and Jacob Young (157 AB) each had only 1 HR.

• The following players, among many others, had only 1 SB for the two-month period: Mookie Betts (158 AB), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (176 AB), Gleyber Torres (183 AB) and Bo Bichette (167 AB).

• The following players hit under .200 for the two-month period despite registering between 148 and 193 AB: Jo Adell (.142), Eugenio Suarez (.165), Orlando Arcia (.172), Daulton Varsho (.181), Garcia (.181), Nolan Gorman (.182), Colton Cowser (.185), Christopher Morel (.188), Mitch Garver (.189), Cal Raleigh (.190), Jeff McNeil (.199), Davis Schneider (.199) and Canha (.199).

One easy way to check the recent performance of your rostered players in NFBC leagues is to: (1) click on one of your teams; (2) click on the “Transactions” link at the top of the page; (3) click on the “Free Agents” link in the pull down menu; (4) change the “Free Agents” option to your team name; and (5) change the “2024 Season Stats” option to “Last 30” to see how your roster performed over the most recent 30 days. If you are not tracking the performance of your own players, you may be rostering, and starting, players whose performance warranted being dropped weeks ago.

Second, this also is a good time to take stock of how your teams are doing in various categories. Fantasy managers frequently monitor where their teams rank in league standings but sometimes neglect to analyze the standings within individual categories until late in the season. Set forth below is a sample categorical breakdown of one of my better teams. Heading into play today, the team has 98 points (42 hitting points and 56 pitching points) and is in second place but is 22.5 points behind the league leader. As reflected below, the team has certain categorical strengths and weaknesses. (The numbers in bold reflect my team’s score within a category and relative to teams immediately above or below me in that category.) 

R – 12 points (646, 635, 626, 598, 589, 587, 581, 580, 576)
HR – 8 points (165, 159, 153, 151, 150, 148, 143)
RBI – 10 points (623, 585, 573, 568, 557, 551, 551, 550)
SB – 4 points (95, 95, 86, 78, 76, 75, 67, 56)
AVG – 8 points (.2522, .2483, .2472, .2456, .2434, .2429)

K – 14 points (869, 847, 822, 801, 785, 784, 784)
W – 5 points (55, 54, 52, 51, 51, 50, 48, 47, 44, 44)
SV – 7 points (42, 41, 37, 36, 35, 34, 33, 24)
ERA – 15 points (3.304, 3.404, 3.530, 3.535, 3.546)
WHIP – 15 points (1.104, 1.117, 1.149, 1.171, 1.175)

This review of how my team is performing in the various roto categories leads to the following takeaways:

R: R currently are my best hitting category, but it is going to take extended strong performance to gain even a single point, whereas I have material downside risk if my team falters

HR: I am middle of the pack in HR and can gain or lose multiple points in the near term depending on how my team performs

RBI: I’m doing well in RBI but have only limited potential upside in the foreseeable future

SB: I am struggling mightily in SB, and it will be challenging to catch the team atop the league standings if scoring only 4 points in this category; while I can gain up to 2 points with improved performance, a major influx of SBs would be needed for a chance at further gains

AVG: I am middle of the pack in AVG, with limited upside and downside in the near term

K: I am very strong in K but will need continued strong performance to gain a point

W: I am struggling in W but have a chance to gain multiple points if I can start racking up more W; notwithstanding the fact that my starting rotation is strong enough to place me second in K, and as the leader in both ratio categories, I cannot buy a W some weeks

SV: I am middle of the pack in saves and, realistically, have 3 points of potential upside and 1 point of potential downside in the near term

ERA: I am doing very well in ERA and, while my “cushion” is very modest, I can take some chances to try to improve in W

WHIP: I am doing very well in WHIP and have only 1 point of potential downside in the near term

Based on the above, my likely strategies, at least for the next few weeks, probably will include (i) trying to gain a few points in stolen bases, but, (ii) given the closeness of the other hitting categories, refraining from selling out for speed for fear of losing ground elsewhere, (iii) trying to strategically use my strength in the pitching ratios to prioritize starts in an effort to take the lead in strikeouts and, more importantly, gain ground in wins, preferably while (iv) trying to at least maintain my current position in saves and, hopefully, gain a point or two in that category.

Finally, when plotting a game plan for the second half, fantasy managers should account for likely changes in player roles and usage. Some examples to be considered are as follows:

• The MLB trade deadline is July 30. Managers should be assessing the players on their rosters who might be traded and plan accordingly. For instance, every season some teams trade for bullpen help. Closers on expiring contracts – such as Kyle Finnegan, Carlos Estevez and Tanner Scott – are likely candidates to be traded. Additionally, some poorly performing teams are likely to try to swap veteran players – particularly those on one-year contracts – for prospects. For instance, the Nationals probably will be sellers and there is little reason for them to retain Jesse Winker. Similarly, it is difficult to envision the White Sox retaining Tommy Pham beyond the trade deadline. While every trade deadline can be unpredictable, savvy managers should try to get ahead of trades and role changes.

• Some starting pitchers – particularly those who are young and/or were injured last season – may be getting close to innings limitations. For instance, Garrett Crochet has been a revelation this season, but how many more innings can he be expected to pitch? Here are Crochet’s innings pitched, by season, including MLB and the minors: 2020 – 6.0; 2021 – 54.1; 2022 – 0; 2023 – 25.0; and 2024: 107.1. Based on Crochet’s extensive injury history and lack of innings thrown during 2020-2023, it is difficult to envision the White Sox – or his new team if traded – continuing to send him out to start games through the end of September. Indeed, in his last start, Crochet threw two dominant innings and was yanked for load management purposes. Managers rostering starting pitchers likely to be shut down or have their workloads reduced substantially should be planning for this eventuality by increasing their starting pitching depth.

• Some injured players will be returning in the second half, and their return will impact the playing time of other players. For instance, how much is Gavin Lux likely to play once Mookie Betts returns, given chatter that Betts will return to second base? What will happen to Chas McCormick’s playing time when Kyle Tucker is activated? Will Pete Crow-Armstrong continue to occupy a strong-side platoon role when Cody Bellinger and Mike Tauchman are healthy? These and other players whose future roles may be impacted by the return of better players do not necessarily need to be dropped tonight in FAAB, but managers with exposure to a likely loss of playing time should plan accordingly.

Some of the players who should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

After a delayed but strong start to the season, Tommy Pham has cooled off. Pham debuted on April 26 and had a strong May with 3 HR, 3 SB, 27 R+RBI, and a .288 AVG. Since June 1, however, Pham has only 1 HR, 2 SB, 15 R+RBI, and is hitting .225. Despite Pham’s recent struggles, his skills – including decent power and speed – warrant holding him in 15-team leagues. He has an everyday role and typically hits leadoff, making him more appealing than most outfielders available in FAAB. In 12-team leagues, Pham is a tougher call. In that format, the level of replacement outfielders is much higher, and managers should be looking to move on from struggling players more quickly than in deeper leagues. One caveat to this assessment is that the White Sox signed Pham to a one-year contract, presumably with the intent of flipping him at the trade deadline for a prospect. If, as expected, Pham is traded in the next few weeks, his fantasy value will change. Any team acquiring Pham should be better than the White Sox, which would boost his value so long as he retains a full-time role. Fantasy managers rostering Pham may want to see where he winds up before electing to drop him.

In response to a request that I address whether Jazz Chisholm Jr. should be dropped in 12-team leagues, the simple answer is no. While some fantasy managers may be disappointed in Chisholm’s production to date, he is a definite hold in all formats. Coming into today’s games, Chisholm has 12 HR, 18 SB, 83 R+RBI, and is hitting a respectable .251. Jazz has cut his strikeout rate by over 5%, although his home run rate has fallen considerably (13.8%) compared to the last two seasons (23.3% and 23.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively). At his current level of production, Chisholm is a fantasy asset. Moreover, there is ample reason for managers rostering Chisholm to be optimistic about the second half – rumors are rampant that the Marlins are intent on trading Chisholm. Virtually any team willing to trade for Chisholm will (i) have a much better supporting cast, and (ii) play in a much more hitter-friendly home ballpark. For instance, while many teams probably are interested in acquiring Chisholm, rumors have linked him to the Yankees, and seeing him potentially hitting before Juan Soto and Aaron Judge with that short right field porch should bring a smile to the faces of Chisholm’s managers.

Bo Bichette is an unexpected player to include in a drops article. In the Main Event, Bichette had an ADP of 41 (the 9^th shortstop drafted), comfortably in the third round. According to the Fangraphs player rater, Bichette currently ranks as the 38^th most valuable shortstop this season, behind players such as Max Schuemann, Edmundo Sosa, Ernie Clement, Kevin Newman and Miguel Rojas. How bad has Bichette been? He has played in 79 of the Blue Jays’ 95 games and only has 4 HR, 5 SB and 59 R+RBI. In comparison, from 2021 to 2023, Bichette hit 29, 24, and 20 HR, respectively. Making matters worse, even if fantasy managers had some cause to doubt Bichette’s power and/or speed coming into the season, he was viewed as an average asset but is hitting only .221 (compared to .298, .290, and .306 from 2021 to 2023, respectively). The Blue Jays offense has been disappointing this season, with Bichette being a primary cause. At this point, it is difficult to envision Bichette massively ramping up his power or stolen base output, and the Blue Jays’ underperforming lineup is not going to help his accumulation of runs and RBI. While Bichette’s low BABIP (.265; career average: .338) suggests there may be positive regression in AVG, his barrel rate (4.5%) is less than half his career average (9.1%), which, if that continues, will limit his prospects for a meaningful second-half resurgence. While Bichette’s regular role and strong career stats probably make him a hold in 15-team formats, it would be understandable for managers to seek upgrades in 12-team formats. I tend to be a big believer in the numbers on the back of players’ baseball cards, but we are heading into the second-half of July and Bichette has underperformed all season. Managers in the Online Championship sometimes have to play the hot hand, and that certainly has not been Bichette. I would not criticize managers (i) dropping Bichette in 15-teamers if an attractive middle infielder becomes available in FAAB or (ii) holding onto Bichette in 12-teamers in the hope he is able to turn things around in the second half. The point I want to emphasize is that Bichette has been extremely disappointing in all five hitting categories and, after approximately 60% of the season, his very high ADP no longer should render him immune from consideration as a potential drop in 12-team leagues and even 15-teamers.

Following a tremendous rebound season last year, Cody Bellinger has disappointed in 2024:

Looking under the hood, most of Bellinger’s metrics are about the same in 2024 as they were in 2023, including strikeout and walk rates, average and maximum exit velocities and barrel/ hard-hit rates. The two biggest changes appear to be: (1) Bellinger’s HR/FB rate has declined from 14.1% to 7.6% (which would be a career low); and (2) he is running much less frequently (26 stolen base attempts last season compared to 7 this season). Earlier this week, Bellinger was placed on the IL with a fracture of his left middle finger. There is no timetable for when Bellinger is expected to be activated. Cubs manager Craig Counsell stated that: “He’s basically going to be shut down through the All-Star break, and when we come back we’ll kind of start the range of motion rehab with the finger. We’ll see where that takes us.” At this point, it seems unlikely that Bellinger will be back much before the start of August, but that still would provide fantasy managers approximately two months of contributions from a struggling but solid outfielder who is at least capable of providing power and speed. There also is a possibility that Bellinger, who has a one-year contract but with player options for 2025 and 2026, is traded prior to the deadline. (Given Bellinger’s struggles this season, it is anticipated that he elects a $27.5 million option for 2025 as opposed to taking a $2.5 million buyout.) Over the past week, Bellinger’s name has been linked to a number of teams, including the Phillies, Braves, Astros and Giants; other than San Francisco, any of those teams might improve Bellinger’s fantasy prospects for the remainder of 2024. Absent news that Bellinger’s injury is likely to keep him sidelined past the beginning of August, he’s a hold in 15- and 12-team formats.

Prior to hitting the injured list on June 22 with a bruised and sore thumb, Luis Campusano was having a decent but disappointing season for the Padres. Although the Padres did not expect the IL stint to last more than the minimum 10 days, Campusano was out half a week beyond that time. While a healthy Campusano should be a top 24 catcher – making him a hold in 15- and 12-team formats – something does not feel right in San Diego. Campusano was activated on July 5 but did not play in the Padres’ game that evening. He sat on July 6 but got one plate appearance as a pinch hitter. Campusano started on July 7, but then hit the bench for the Padres’ games on July 9, 10 and 12, before starting yesterday’s game. Meanwhile, Kyle Higashioka started at catcher on July 6, 9 and 12. Either Higashioka has displaced Campusano as the Padres’ primary catcher or Campusano still is not fully recovered from his thumb injury. The Padres are fighting for a playoff spot and, thus far, Higashioka has outplayed Campusano despite less playing time:

While Campusano’s strikeout rate (12.8%) is less than half of Higashioka’s rate (31.2%), there is no doubt that Higashioka has made more impactful contact. Given the expectation that Campusano previously was looking at a minimum IL stint and he now has been back for over a week, I suspect that Campusano’s loss of playing time is not health related. Campusano had 7 HR and a .319 AVG over 174 PA last season but does not look like the same hitter in 2024. My advice is the same in 12- and 15-team formats: if there is a solid, more productive catcher available in FAAB, feel free to drop Campusano, but exercise patience if the free agent pickings in your leagues are slim. Campusano has been hurt by an unlucky (.240) BABIP and should be hitting better than .226. All it takes is a few strong games for the playing time pendulum to swing back in his direction. I suspect that managers in 12-teamers will have an easier time identifying upgrades to Campusano than in 15-team leagues.

Potential Pitcher Drops

Zack Littell started the season well enough, but his results have declined month after month. For March and April, Littell had a 3.27 ERA. He had a 3.68 ERA in May. In June, Littell pitched to a 6.00 ERA. For the first half of July, his ERA has been 4.80. For the season, Littell only has 3 wins in 19 starts and his ratios (4.26 ERA and 1.37 WHIP) are not helping many teams. Some of Littell’s underlying metrics are not bad; for instance, he (i) whiffs almost a batter per inning, (ii) hardly walks anyone and (iii) maintains a 17% K-BB%. Littell gives up a fair amount of hard contact but also has been hurt by an unlucky BABIP (.344). Fantasy managers can do better than Littell in 12-team formats, although I can see using him periodically as a matchup play. Littell is a tougher call in 15-team formats, but his performance is trending in the wrong direction, and he already has exceeded his previous career high in MLB innings pitched. In most of my 15-team leagues, starting pitching available in FAAB looks pretty ugly. Thus, while I would not drop Littell for just anyone, managers should be actively seeking to upgrade from him. Importantly, the Rays recently promoted Shane Baz, and Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen are expected to join the rotation in the second half. In fact, Springs may be ready to go shortly after the All-Star break and, when that happens, Littell appears to be the obvious choice to be relegated to the bullpen.

Yu Darvish is a tough case for fantasy managers. Even though Darvish will be turning 38 soon, he still is an above-average starting pitcher when active. In 11 starts this season, Darvish has 4 wins and strong ratios (3.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP). Despite that performance, managers surely regret drafting Darvish. His last start was on May 29 and, shortly thereafter, went on the IL on June 1 with a groin strain. At the time, it did not seem like Darvish would miss a lot of time and, within a few weeks, he made his first rehab start. In late-June, it was reported that Darvish’s next start would be for the Padres, and, in fact, he was expected to face the Nationals on June 25. The day before that start, however, Darvish was scratched with “a little” elbow inflammation. A few days later, Darvish was sent for imaging, which came back clean. Darvish started ramping up again but, out of the blue, was placed on the restricted list on July 6, with the Padres indicating that it was due to a personal matter, and no expected return date was provided. Since then, there have been a few reports suggesting that the Padres fear that Darvish’s absence may be an extended one, but no additional information has been disclosed. It is at least conceivable that Darvish could resolve his personal matter and rejoin the team in a few weeks. The tone of the news stories, however, suggest that Darvish may be away from the team for quite a bit longer, and that would be my fear. With a known injury, managers can evaluate when a player is likely to return. While such evaluations are very challenging and often based on imperfect information, there typically is at least some news to go on, and players’ rehab activities and games can be tracked. In Darvish’s situation, the Padres are respecting their player’s privacy and, therefore, there are no guarantees as to if and when additional information will be made public, or that Darvish will even be back this season. My inclination probably is to hold Darvish one more week, through the All-Star break, to see if the Padres have news to report when the players return to action. Such advice, however, is contingent upon managers possessing the roster flexibility to wait another week, and the case for dropping Darvish now is stronger in 12-team leagues than 15-teamers. Another caveat is that such advice is based on the limited information summarized above; if news breaks that Darvish will in fact be gone from the team for a lengthy period, that to me would be a clear sign to drop him in all formats. If the Padres’ “radio silence” continues past the All-Star break, then I think I would be inclined to drop him next Sunday.

Bobby Miller had a Main Event ADP of 55, in the back-half of Round 4. In his first start, on March 29, Miller pitched six shutout innings with 11 strikeouts to win the game. Since then, Miller has 0 wins, a 10.17 ERA and 2.17 WHIP, while missing over two months with a shoulder injury. In his last start, Miller gave up 13 hits plus walks and 9 earned runs in 4 innings, prompting a demotion. Clearly, Miller needed a reset. The Dodgers can win the NL West without Miller, but they surely want to get him right for the playoffs. Given Miller’s strong stuff, seeing him get hit around and walking plenty of batters indicates that his mechanics are out of whack and/or he’s still not fully healthy. At the risk of sounding indecisive, whether to hold or drop Miller really is a team-dependent call. First, fantasy managers need to be able to stash Miller for an indefinite period of time. If the Dodgers think Miller’s problems are mechanical, he might be recalled relatively shortly after the break. On the other hand, if he’s hurt, or if the Dodgers are focused on getting him back to peak form before exposing him to MLB hitting, Miller might be kept in the minors for multiple rehab starts. If strong in the standings but with no shot at an overall title, it might be preferable to move on from Miller, especially in 12-team leagues where there are usable replacements available in FAAB. Teams struggling to make-up ground in the standings might be more inclined to hold Miller and gamble that he’s back soon and pitches like the starter we saw last season. The risks of holding Miller are multiple – there is no clear guidance on how quickly he will be recalled to the Dodgers and, if and when that happens, there are no guarantees that Miller will pitch well enough to have been worth the wait. Miller is a tough call, and while I think I probably would move on in 12-team formats, the quality of starting pitchers available in FAAB in 15-teamers has been downright ugly lately, and so absent a compelling alternative, I probably would try to hold Miller in the hopes of a second-half rebound.

Thanks to injuries to Jordan Romano and Yimi Garcia, Chad Green has found himself closing out games for the Blue Jays. While Romano is not returning soon, if at all, this season, Garcia is on his way back, completing several rehab appearances. Garcia is expected to assume the closer role, and so fantasy managers will need to decide whether to hold or drop Green. For several reasons, Green may be worth holding, at least in 15-team formats. First, there is no guarantee that Garcia will be able to return to action without further setbacks. Garcia’s return already has been delayed, and if he were to experience a setback, Green would remain Toronto’s closer for the foreseeable future. Second, even if Garcia returns, it remains to be seen whether he returns to the closer role immediately; it is at least possible that Green continues to close some games for a period of time. Third, next week is a short one, with most teams playing only three games. Consequently, a number of starting pitchers will not be used next week as teams reset their rotations and having an extra high-leverage reliever to use next week could be advantageous. Finally, the Blue Jays may be sellers at the deadline, and Green and/or Garcia could be dealt, potentially altering Green’s fantasy value. Without question, if managers need to drop Green to acquire someone better, they should do so, and the case to drop Green would become much more compelling if/when Garcia returns and becomes the Blue Jays’ clear-cut closer.

David Bednar is back and, as expected, Aroldis Chapman returned to a set-up role. Absent any setback by Bednar, Chapman’s opportunity for saves on the Pirates should be extremely limited (for instance, when Bednar needs a rest day). Chapman has regained his elite velocity and, with it, is racking up strikeouts (56 in 34.2 IP). Importantly, however, Chapman continues to walk way too many batters (a remarkable 32 in 34.2 IP), leading to unhelpful ratios (4.15 ERA, horrid 1.62 WHIP). Chapman is not worth holding as a set-up reliever; the only case for holding is as closer speculation. Chapman is on a one-year contract and the Pirates should be trying to trade him prior to the deadline. Whether Chapman is acquired to close games is questionable, at best, but some team in need of relief help may be swayed by his 325 career saves, notwithstanding declining skills. Fantasy managers unable to stash Chapman until the end of July and/or are pessimistic that he will be traded into a closing opportunity should drop him now. Managers desperate for saves and unable to roster a better closer speculation may want to hold and gamble on a favorable trade or, perhaps, a Bednar setback.

Finally, some quick hits:

• Ben Brown was placed on the IL on June 11 with a neck strain that turned out to be a stress reaction. Brown has not recovered to the point of pitching in rehab games and, earlier this week, the Cubs announced that Brown has not progressed at all and that his neck symptoms “have prevented him from advancing.” Given that Brown’s return appears a long way off, he will need meaningful time to be built back up, and that there are no assurances he will even return as a member of the Cubs rotation. He now is a drop in all formats.

• Reed Garrett was placed on the IL this week with an elbow injury. Garrett and the Mets received good news a short time later as imaging revealed inflammation but no ligament damage. While early, strong ratios have become a distant memory (3.64 ERA, 1.43 WHIP), Garrett has been a valuable reliever with 7 wins and 4 saves. Despite that, Garrett now should be dropped in all formats – he will be out for two to four weeks, and Mets closer Edwin Diaz has returned and looks good, sharply reducing any fantasy value that Garrett still retained.

• Carlos Rodon has been a major disappointment for fantasy managers. He has 9 wins, but his ratios (4.59 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) are not what folks were hoping for when drafting Rodon around the 8/9 turn in the Main Event. Disappointment aside, Rodon is still a hold in both 15- and 12-team leagues. Rodon is an above-average starting pitcher in wins and strikeouts, and there is at least a decent likelihood that his ratios will improve in the second half (his SIERA is 3.92, over half a run better than his ERA).

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am challenging myself by focusing solely on pitchers who are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters. 

There unfortunately is no way for me to sugar coat my performance predicting disaster starts last week – I was lousy. My picks won four of seven starts and posted stellar ratios (2.51 ERA and 0.86 WHIP). By most measures, this was my worst week of the season, with the only bright lining being that it would be damn tough for me to do worse this coming week. In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “disaster” picks thus far.  Week 16 shows results through yesterday’s games and will be updated next week if any additional stats are accumulated today.