Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (6/2)

It often is challenging to know when to “cut the cord” and drop a player due to disappointing performance. Fantasy managers are well aware that slumps are commonplace in baseball, and even the best players go through periods of sustained mediocrity or worse performance. On the other hand, in many respects, season-long fantasy baseball has become a weekly game, and practicing near-unlimited patience with rostered players can cause fantasy managers to miss out on players available in FAAB who are “breaking out” and producing desirable statistics. Thus, if trying to balance reasonable patience on player drops with reasonable aggressiveness in FAAB, how much time should managers give underperforming players before moving on? The answer – as with many things in life – is “it depends.” Let me explain.

In fantasy baseball, four weeks can seem like an eternity, especially when saddled with one or more underperforming players in your starting lineup. Here is a group of players with truly mediocre performances during the four-week period running from May 1-28:

Over the last four weeks, the above eight players had full-time or almost full-time roles and failed to help their fantasy managers. I think all eight players could be characterized as potential or definite drops. Players A-H, in order, are Mark Canha, Mitch Haniger, Richie Palacios, Jared Triolo, Orlando Arcia, Dominic Smith, Andrew Benintendi and Javier Baez.

Here is a second group of eight more players who performed about the same, or in many cases worse, than the first group over the same four-week period from May 1-28:

Similar to the first group of players, this group failed to help their fantasy managers’ teams over an extended period of time. While their performances ordinarily would warrant consideration as potential drops, managers should at least think twice before dropping, in order: Jake Burger, Yainer Diaz, Tyler O’Neill, Michael Harris, Corbin Carroll, Riley Greene, CJ Abrams and Ozzie Albies.

Very good players can exhibit very poor skills over a four-week, or longer, period. For instance, between May 1-28: (1) O’Neill had a 43.9% K%; (2) Elly De La Cruz had only one homer and a 34.3% K%; (3) the formerly red-hot Colton Cowser hit .189 with one homer and no stolen bases; and (4) fantasy-friendly Jo Adell had 6 home runs and 3 stolen bases but hit a pathetic .146. You get the message. Deciding whether or not to drop underperforming players warrants evaluations that go beyond recent surface statistics. Some additional considerations include:

• The player’s track record and/or prospect pedigree. Players who have performed well on a season-long basis and highly-ranked prospects typically deserve a longer leash than marginal players.
• The player’s upside. Some players are streakier than others. You hold – and do not drop – players like De La Cruz through slumps because when they are hot, they can be real difference-makers.
• The player’s underlying metrics. At the end of the day, our fantasy teams live or die based on 10 specific roto categories. That noted, relying solely on categorical contributions to evaluate an individual player’s actual performance is a bad process. Fantasy managers need to look “under the hood” at prospective drops (as they presumably do for prospective targets). Is a hitter getting abnormally lucky or unlucky with BABIP? How is his quality of contact? Is he hitting the ball hard with a solid barrel rate, or has he become a pop-up machine? There is an ever-increasing universe of metrics at our fingertips – try to figure out the causes of your player’s underperformance and how likely they are to continue.
• Have the player’s circumstances changed? Is the team much worse than expected? Has the player’s role changed? Is he losing playing time or moving down the batting order? While contextual changes can be very relevant in hold/drop decisions, assigning them too much weight also can contribute to regrettable drops. A week or two of solid hitting, for instance, sometimes is all that it takes to gain playing time and/or move up in the batting order.

Some of the players who should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

St. Louis outfielder Lars Nootbaar recently was placed on the IL with an oblique strain. Cardinals manager Oli Marmol told reporters that Nootbaar’s strain is “moderate” and that he’s expected to miss “several weeks” prior to going on a rehab assignment. At this point, based on the limited information available, fantasy managers should assume that Nootbaar will be out for 4-5 weeks. When healthy, Nootbaar is a solid player. After starting the season on the IL, Nootbaar has come on recently and is hitting .234 with 5 HR, 3 SB and 34 R+RBI over 164 PA. While not elite in any facet of the game, Nootbaar has some power and speed and an excellent eye at the plate posting double-digit walk rates every season. Nootbaar has a 52.8% Hard% and his xBA (.272) suggests he’s been unlucky thus far. Nootbaar presents a difficult hold/drop call for managers. He’s a good player, probably better than the vast majority of outfielders available in FAAB, but a recovery period of a month or longer is a difficult stash for a non-elite player. In 12-team leagues like the Online Championship, I lean toward dropping Nootbaar, although I can understand managers with a free roster spot electing to stash him. In 15-team league such as the Main Event,  I think the decision is very team dependent based on, among other things, whether a manager already has one or more players stashed, the strength of the team’s outfield without Nootbaar, and the potential availability of outfielders in FAAB who are at least close to Nootbaar’s level. In deciding whether to hold or drop, managers should bear in mind that the Cardinals offense has struggled all season, and that may cap Nootbaar’s upside.

Spencer Torkelson is an enigma. In the conversation for the best college hitter of the last decade, Torkelson was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft. He struggled in his rookie season in 2022, posting an 8/38/28/0/203 stat line in 110 games. Torkelson continued to struggle early last season, resulting in a demotion, but then rebounded with a strong season-half to finish 2023 with a solid 31/88/94/3/233 stat line (with 16 homers after August 1). Based on that strong finish, there was optimism that Torkelson would be a strong power bat this season. That has not happened, however, and Torkelson has struggled all season and currently has an abysmal 4/24/18/0/201 stat line through two-plus months. In evaluating Torkelson, managers should not assume that he will have a strong second-half rebound this season merely because he had one in 2023. Every season is different, and optimistic narratives (such as a strong finish in 2023 will lead to better performance in 2024) do not always come true. I have several concerns regarding Torkelson, including: (1) in over 1,300 career plate appearances, he is a sub-.220 hitter; (2) his quality of contact metrics are way down (compared to 2023, his Barrel% is down from 14.1% to under 4% and his HR/FB is down from 15% to under 5%); and (3) the Tigers have a below-average offense and play in a pitcher’s park, which hurt his upside. In 12-team formats, I would utilize short bid strings and look to upgrade as solid alternatives become available. In 15-teamers, I feel the same, but Torkelson is a hold in most leagues due to the likely absence of appealing alternatives (in other words, do not drop him solely for the sake of dropping).

Brett Baty was featured in last week’s article. He’s included here because the Mets decided to demote Baty to Triple-A this week, opening up increased playing time for Mark Vientos. Baty has been disappointing this season, struggling to a 4/15/16/0/225 stat line over 169 PA. A high prospect third baseman, Baty has struggled to provide either power or average in the majors; in exactly 600 career plate appearances, he only has 15 HR and 55 RBI with a .214 average. While I expect Baty will be called back to the majors by the Mets at some point this season, I think he’s now a drop in 15- and 12-team formats. While I often succumb to the lure of stashes in full knowledge of the risks, as a general rule I limit my stashes to injured players and high prospects. As I discussed several weeks ago in regard to another Mets minor leaguer (Jose Butto), stashing demoted players has less appeal to me because: (1) there often is tremendous uncertainty as to whether and when the player may be recalled to the majors; and (2) even if promoted, there is a strong risk of underperformance given that the team previously decided the player was better off in the minors.

Kerry Carpenter went on the IL this week. The diagnosis initially was described as spinal inflammation. A short time later, the diagnosis was changed to a lumbar spine stress fracture. While there are estimates on the internet of a 4–8-week recovery time, the Tigers have not released any official timeline. What is clear, however, is that Carpenter is going to be out for an extended period of time. At the time of his injury, Carpenter was having a strong season with an 8/21/29/0/283 stat line. Despite that success, I fear Carpenter is a clear drop in 12-team formats and for most managers in 15-team formats. If a Main Event team has a free roster spot and needs power, I can understand holding Carpenter at least for a week to see if the recovery time is limited to a month or so.

Junior Caminero is one of the highest-ranked prospects in baseball. Still only 20, Caminero made his MLB debut in 2023 as an injury replacement for the Rays down the stretch. Remarkably, he held his own and entered 2024 with the promise of combining strong power and batting average. The problem for Caminero and his fantasy managers is that while the Rays offense certainly could use a spark, finding him a place on the field has been challenging. Two of the Rays’ best players, Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes, hold down the corners. Illustrating the risks of stashing, while fantasy managers waited for Caminero’s call-up and offensive production, he recently suffered a Grade 2 quad strain and now will be sidelined for 4-6 weeks. At this point, I think Caminero now is a drop in all formats. Importantly, as advised in the past, the decision to hold or drop Caminero should be made from this point forward; the fact that managers may have stashed all season is irrelevant to the decision. The time holding Caminero is a sunk cost; what matters now is whether holding him for at least 4-6 weeks is the optimal strategy. Importantly, managers must recognize that the 4–6-week recovery period is for Caminero to be activated, not necessarily to play for the Rays. Caminero has to make it back from injury, return to peak performance and then wait to be promoted from Triple-A. Thus, given the 4–6-week recovery period for the quad strain, managers are looking at a 6–8-week period, minimum, before Caminero next appears in the majors.

Cedric Mullins is hitting a disappointing .185 and does not start against left-handed pitchers. Making matters worse for Mullins and his fantasy managers is that he recently began sitting against some right-handed pitchers, too. So, is Mullins a drop in all formats? The question is complicated for several reasons. First, while Mullins’ batting average leaves much to be desired, he does have 6 HR and 11 SB along with 44 R+RBI, providing his managers with decent production. Second, Mullins is regarded as a good fielder and, if he hits more consistently, could regain some of the lost playing time in short order. Third, the Orioles have a very strong offense, and Mullins benefits from that notwithstanding his less than a full-time role. I think Mullins is a hold in most 15-team leagues (although his managers ideally should carry an extra outfielder and sit Mullins during periods when the Orioles face multiple lefties). It is a closer call in 12-team leagues; I think teams strong in speed can think about dropping Mullins if they have six better outfielders. While Mullins is walking less and whiffing more than he has done historically, many of his underlying metrics – such as O-SW% and Harda – seem solid, and that an unlucky .212 BABIP (.290 for his career) is the culprit for at least some of Mullins’ batting average woes. While unlikely to ever duplicate his breakout 2021 season (30/91/58/30/291), Mullins is capable of stronger performance, and dropping him is not without risk that he will provide it for a competitor.

Chas McCormick has been a major disappointment for his fantasy managers. Last season, McCormick was a revelation, producing a strong stat line (22/59/70/19/273) in only 115 games (457 PA). McCormick missed some time due to a hamstring injury, but while activated on May 21, you would never know it based on his playing time. Since his return, McCormick has played only sparingly, accumulating just 7 AB this week heading into today’s game. Right now, the Astros do not have an obvious opening for McCormick. Jake Meyers is having a strong season and has become the team’s regular centerfielder, while the great Kyle Tucker holds down right field. Yordan Alvarez is (marginally) capable of playing left field and, while not a regular, Mauricio Dubon is hitting .317 and also is in the mix for playing time in the outfield. It is easy to argue that the Astros’ best lineup has McCormick in left and Alvarez at DH – and that in itself may be the best reason to try to hold McCormick – but the fact remains that through 27 games and 99 plate appearances, McCormick has 0 HR, 2 SB and is hitting .205. Between 2021 and 2023, McCormick played in 108, 119 and 115 games, which is another way of saying that he has never held down a full-time role on a season-long basis. After a strong 2023 season, it was reasonable for fantasy managers to assume McCormick would ascend to a full-time role in 2024 with legitimate 25/25 upside. Unfortunately, the present reality is that after a slow start and an injury, McCormick now is largely a bench player and requires stronger performance and/or an injury to regain substantial playing time. Right now, McCormick should not be started and only true believers with roster flexibility should hold in 12-team formats (where better options in the near-term are widely available). In 15-team formats, McCormick can be stashed by managers possessing both roster flexibility and patience because I do not sense an increase in playing time and performance are imminent. Still, there are multiple avenues by which McCormick can regain playing time, and he is a better player than what he has shown thus far. But, before electing to hold, managers should recognize that there is work to be done here. From 2021-2023, McCormick’s HR/FB was between 16.1% and 20.4%; this season, it still sits at 0%. In 61 batted ball events, McCormick has only one barrel. While the sample size is small, McCormick has not played like someone deserving of a full-time role.

Last Sunday, Ronald Acuna Jr., the near-consensus top fantasy pick this season, hurt his knee running the bases, and it immediately was apparent that an IL stint of some duration would be coming. Although there was some early speculation, including by Acuna, that he would miss about a month, fantasy managers found out minutes after FAAB ran that night that Acuna suffered a tear of the ACL in his left knee and would miss the remainder of the season. Thus, Acuna is an immediate drop in all formats.

Potential Pitcher Drops

Clarke Schmidt was in the middle of a breakout season (5 W, 67 K in 60.2 IP, 2.52 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) before surprising the baseball world, and his fantasy managers, by going onto the IL with a previously-undisclosed lat strain. The initial prognosis is not great – Schmidt will be shut down from throwing for 4-6 weeks. Importantly, managers need to recognize that this 4-6 period is not Schmidt’s recovery period; it is only the first phase before he embarks on building back up to pitch in games. After a 4–6-week shutdown, Schmidt will require another 3-4 weeks to go from soft toss, pitching from a mound, facing live batters and pitching in rehab games. Thus, a realistic expectation is that Schmidt will be out for at least two months, or over half of the remaining season. As great as Schimdt has been, I think he’s a clear drop in 12-team formats and, frankly, in most 15-team leagues. Main Event managers contemplating holding Schmidt should be aware that while most of the underlying metrics justify his improved performance, Schmidt probably is not this good, as most ERA estimators are about a run higher than his actual ERA, projection systems still see Schmidt as a 4+ ERA pitcher and his 84.1% LOB% is much higher than league average and probably is due to for some regression.

Kodai Senga continues to progress very slowly from his posterior capsule strain. I addressed Senga in last week’s article and cautioned that his fantasy managers probably were facing at least a 4–6-week recovery period from that time, with considerable risk of setbacks and/or reduced performance. That assessment still holds, with the latest news being that Senga continues to be limited to soft toss, and there currently are no immediate plans for him to advance to mound work. Thus far, Senga’s managers are determined and/or stubborn, as he remains rostered in the vast majority of Main Event and Online Championship leagues. Could Senga turn a corner in his recovery, come back in 4-6 weeks, and pitch effectively? Yes, definitely. Is that scenario likely to happen? I do not know; given the nature of his injury and lack of discernible progress to date, Senga’s recovery period could easily be longer, and there are no guarantees he will pitch effectively upon his return. Managers considering whether to continue stashing also should recognize that: (a) the Mets are a bad team this season; (b) the team likely will be sellers this summer and be weaker if and when Senga returns; and (c) because the Mets appear to have little or no chance of making the playoffs this season, their motivation should be to tread carefully with Senga and focus on getting him right for 2025, as opposed to maximizing his innings this season.

Let’s cover another Met starter: Christian Scott. After totally dominating Triple-A to start the season (3 W, 36 K in 25.1 IP, 3.20 ERA and 0.71 WHIP), Scott has held his own over his first five MLB starts (0 W, 25 K in 27.2 IP, 3.90 ERA and 1.08 WHIP). Following a solid outing against the Diamondbacks on May 30, the Mets surprised fantasy managers by demoting Scott back to Triple-A. I think Scott is a hold in 15- and 12-team formats. Earlier in this article, when discussing Brett Baty, I distinguished stashing injured players and high prospects awaiting promotion from demoted players, stating that “stashing demoted players has less appeal to me because: (1) there often is tremendous uncertainty as to whether and when the player may be recalled to the majors; and (2) even if promoted, there is a strong risk of underperformance given that the team previously decided the player was better off in the minors.” I think Scott is an exception because he was not demoted due to poor performance, and his return to MLB should occur within a few weeks. The Mets are off this coming Thursday and Friday and the following Monday due to a two-game series with the Phillies next weekend that will be played in London. With no near-term need for Scott, the Mets are taking advantage of an opportunity to manage his innings (Scott had 58.2 IP in 2022, 97.2 IP in 2023 and has 53 IP thus far this season). While Scott should be back soon, there still are risks in stashing him of which managers should be aware. First, with the return of Tylor Megill and David Peterson, the Mets could elect to keep Scott in the minors for longer than just a few weeks. Second, there always is a chance that Scott could suffer an injury while toiling away in Triple-A. Third, given the team context discussed with respect to Senga, the Mets likely are not focused on maximizing wins in 2024 and could elect to baby Scott the rest of the way. Importantly, similar to the time spent to date stashing Senga, the considerable amount of FAAB that was expended to roster Scott now is a sunk cost and irrelevant; the decision to hold or drop Scott moving forward should be based on a prospective evaluation of the pros and cons. In this case, I think the pros of potentially utilizing Scott for the entire second half of the season outweigh the cons of stashing him for possibly just a few weeks (this conclusion, however, should be reevaluated weekly).

Alek Manoah’s 2023 season (3 W, 79 K in 87.1 IP, 5.87 ERA, 1.74 WHIP) was a disaster from a health and a performance perspective. After starting the 2024 season in the minors, the Blue Jays promoted Manoah to start on May 5. Manoah’s first four starts had their share of ups and downs – he got shelled by the Nationals (6 ER in 4 IP), pitched brilliantly against the Twins and the Rays (0 ER in 14 IP) and then got hit hard by the Tigers (4 ER in 4.2 IP). Manoah then left his May 29 start in the second inning and was placed on the IL with elbow discomfort. The latest news is that Manoah is currently seeking a second medical opinion, and his absence is likely to be lengthy. Despite an encouraging two-game stretch of effectiveness, I think Manoah is an easy drop in all formats. Given Manoah’s horrible 2023 performance, uneven 2024 performance and ominous medical news, he simply is not worth stashing for an extended period of time.

I covered Reid Detmers in last week’s article. At the time, I recommended: (a) dropping Detmers in most 12-team leagues; and (b) benching him in 15-team leagues and stashing him only if managers had the roster space. Since that time, Detmers had two more disappointing starts, and following yesterday’s outing was demoted. Detmers’ season can be characterized as including an initial, effective phase encompassing four starts (3 W, 30 K in 22.2 IP, 1.19 ERA, 0.97 WHIP), followed by an extended phase of shoddy performance over eight starts (0 W, 40 K in 40.1 IP, 8.93 ERA, 1.76 WHIP). From an MLB and fantasy perspective, Detmers is broken, and the fix is not going to happen overnight (assuming it happens at all this season). Detmers’ strong opening to the season and last year’s no-hitter show that he possesses some upside, but given his overall body of work, Detmers is not worth stashing in the hope that such upside reappears this season. Fantasy managers are reminded that just because they drop a player, that does not mean they are precluded from reacquiring that player later should circumstances change.

After pitching disappointingly, Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano was placed on the IL with elbow inflammation, the same injury that landed him on the IL to start the season. Romano has not looked “right” all season, pitching to a 6.14 ERA and 1.36 WHIP (in comparison, Romano posted sub-3 ERAs in each of the 2021, 2022 and 2023 seasons). The good news for his fantasy managers is that Romano’s MRI came back clean, and there is said to be no structural damage. This news suggests that Romano will miss weeks and not months. Given that this is Romano’s second bout with elbow inflammation this season, I would expect the Blue Jays to manage him conservatively and not rush him back after a minimum IL stint. Assuming Romano will miss 3-4 weeks, I think he is a clear hold in 15-team leagues and most 12-team leagues. When healthy, Romano is a solid (but not elite) closer, and I have little doubt that he will quickly regain that role if he is back in a month or less. There has been little closer turnover in baseball this season, and given Romano’s favorable diagnosis, strong skills (when healthy) and track record, I would be leery about dropping Romano now, notwithstanding frustration with how his season has played out to date.

Let’s address two Reds starting pitchers – Graham Ashcraft and Frankie Montas – together as I view them similarly. Thus far, neither of these pitchers are helping fantasy managers. Through 11 starts, Ashcraft has 4 W, but his ratios (4.76 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) leave much to be desired. Montas has made 10 starts, has 2 W and similarly undesirable ratios (4.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). I would be reluctant to roster these pitchers regularly in 15-team formats and want no part of them in 12-teamers. In 15-team leagues, Ashcraft and Montas are no more than mediocre matchup plays at this time. While Ashcraft can look good at times, his ratios are remarkably consistent (and consistently bad), his strikeout percentage is weak and he walks too many batters:

Montas barely pitched in 2023 and had better results before last season and therefore warrants a slightly longer leash than Ashcraft. The problem, however, is that Montas is showing very little this season, and there is no apparent reason to believe he will rebound to prior levels:

While the Reds should be better in the second half with the return of certain position players, Ashcraft and Montas currently pitch for a last-place team with a shaky defense that plays its home games in a hitter’s park. Fantasy managers should be able to do better in all or most weeks.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am going to challenge myself by focusing solely on pitchers who are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters.

Redemption! Following my worst week picking disaster starts, I just had my best week thus far this season. Over seven starts, my disaster picks compiled only 1 win with truly lousy ratios (4.84 ERA and 1.58 WHIP). Interestingly, despite nailing my disaster picks in terms of ratios, the group did perform very well in strikeouts. In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “Disaster” picks thus far. Week 10 shows results through yesterday’s games and will be updated next week to include today’s results.