Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (6/15)

There is a common saying in fantasy baseball that if managers are avoiding making any bad drops, it means they are not being aggressive enough in FAAB. I agree. Managers participating actively in FAAB typically will make multiple bad drops during the course of a long season. Of course, bad drops can mean different things to different managers. 

Sometimes, managers may employ logic, carefully analyze the assorted options before them, and make educated, strategic decisions to drop certain players only to have such decisions backfire. In the worst of cases, the players acquired disappoint, while the dropped players turn things around and become fantasy contributors for other teams. Importantly, however, there is no way to know for certain which struggling players may turn their seasons around (or when they may do so) and which players will continue to struggle. 

If the process leading up to a player drop was sound, the drop may be regrettable, without necessarily reflecting a “bad” decision. This column attempts to help managers minimize drops that do represent poor strategy and/or are the product of a bad process.

As noted in prior columns, drop decisions are very contextual. Last Sunday, one of the best (if not the best) fantasy managers alive dropped Athletics closer Mason Miller to acquire Mariners first baseman/outfielder Luke Raley, who is injured and expected to start a rehab assignment this week. At first blush, and in certain contexts, this transaction can be considered ill-advised. When the entirety of circumstances are considered, however, it is easier to at least understand the transaction, even if disagreeing with it. 

First, the drop took place in a standalone league – there is no overall component to consider and so there is much less pressure on managers to field balanced teams. In standalone leagues, punting a category in order to focus resources in other categories can be a viable strategy. Second, while this manager has been incredibly successful over the years, his team that dropped Miller ended last week in 13th place in this particular league and, while hardly out of contention with more than three months to go, the manager may have felt that a bold change in strategy was needed. Third, although the manager ended last week with 27 saves and 9.5 points in the category, Miller was his only current closer and, absent acquisition of another source of saves, the manager’s team stood to lose at least several points in saves in the coming weeks (another team also had 27 saves, two teams had 26 saves, one team had 24 saves, and one team had 23 saves). Fourth, in this particular standalone league, four teams essentially have punted saves, such that the 12th place team in the category (out of 15 teams) finished the week with only eight saves. 

Thus, even with the drop of Miller, it would be very surprising if this particular team fell below 11th place in saves. In other words, this manager, should he choose, could punt saves for the rest of the season and still be reasonably assured of scoring at least five points in the category. Fifth, the Athletics and Miller are struggling badly. In 2024, Miller was a dominant closer (2 W, 28 SV, 2.49 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 104 K in 65 IP); this season, Miller currently sports an inflated ERA (5.55) and over the five-week period from Week 7 through Week 11, he converted only three saves. (By dropping Miller last Sunday, the manager also avoided Friday’s awful appearance where Miller allowed three earned runs in a single inning pitched.) It remains to be seen whether Miller will turn out to be a regrettable drop but, when the full context is considered, the transaction is at least understandable and, knowing the manager in question, I am confident that it was not made lightly.