Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (4/28)

The injuries are getting ridiculous. It seems as if every day brings new IL stints, many of unexpected varieties. The benches of my NFBC Draft Champions teams now resemble MASH units. In draft-and-hold leagues, there’s nothing that fantasy managers can do about injuries in season; in FAAB leagues, however, managers must make tough decisions every Sunday. Such decisions often involve whether to hold an injured or demoted player with strong skills or drop him for an active player who often has little or no real upside. In the past several weeks, I have noticed two trends impacting Main Event and Online Championship leagues.

First, while the beginning of this season was marked by a high number of critical pitcher injuries, hitter IL stints are making a strong comeback, with rib and oblique injuries leading the way. Second, while there have been a few interesting call-ups, we have not had nearly the same number of appealing additions to the player pool that we have seen by this time in prior years. From my perspective, this makes hold/drop decisions harder; it is infinitely easier to drop a valued but injured player for a stud prospect than it is for a middling major leaguer no one wanted to draft a month or so ago. In making these decisions, managers may want to consult my introductory article, where I discuss many of the factors that should be considered in evaluating potential drops.

This week, I’d like to address the concept of sunk costs, a topic that frequently is relevant to the evaluation of potential drops. A sunk cost can be defined as a cost or an investment that already has been incurred and cannot be recovered. How is this relevant in deciding among potential drops in FAAB? Oftentimes, fantasy managers are reluctant to drop high draft picks, irrespective of the circumstances. That is a mistake. While the quality of the player and his future prospects are highly relevant in hold vs. drop decisions, the amount of draft capital spent on that player is not – it is a sunk cost.

Let’s take recently-demoted Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker as an example. Walker had a Main Event ADP in the 10^th round and cost an average of $12 in auctions. In evaluating whether to hold or drop Walker in FAAB, his draft cost should not be a consideration. His projected skill level moving forward (which can but does not always correlate to draft cost) is relevant, as well as his outlook moving forward (e.g., how likely he is to be recalled to the majors quickly, regain a full-time role, hit near the middle of the order, perform better upon recall).

Fantasy managers should strive to avoid falling victim to “sunk-cost fallacy,” which is defined as a “phenomenon whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial.” In fantasy baseball, sunk-cost fallacy tends to play out in at least two scenarios: (1) when a high draft pick is underperforming, injured or demoted to the minors; and (2) when a player is stashed for multiple weeks (or longer) but is not being activated. The draft capital spent on such a player is a cost that already has been incurred, as is the roster flexibility that was sacrificed in stashing a player for multiple weeks. Those investments simply are not relevant to the decision whether or not such a player should be held or dropped now. Rather, managers should be focusing solely on the future prospects for that player irrespective of prior investments in draft capital or lost flexibility that can no longer be recovered. If those prospects still are appealing – and preferable to the future prospects of players available in FAAB – the player should be held. On the other hand, if the most compelling reason to hold a player is his draft cost or the weeks spent stashing him, it might be time to reverse course and move on.

Some of the players who should at least be considered as potential drops are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

Three of the most impactful injuries of the week involved Triston Casas, Cody Bellinger and Lane Thomas. Let’s discuss how fantasy managers should evaluate whether or not to drop these players.

It initially was reported that Casas suffered a fractured rib. On Friday, Casas himself clarified that he did not fracture a rib, but instead suffered torn cartilage. He then indicated that his timetable was wide open, and that he would need anywhere between three and nine weeks of recovery before resuming cardiovascular activity. Uncertain recovery timetables make hold/drop decisions particularly challenging. I tend to view recovery ranges through a pessimistic prism, as teams and players often are unrealistically optimistic. My gut reaction was that if there’s a chance that Casas will need nine weeks before being able to even resume cardio work, there’s no way he’ll be doing so after only three weeks. Sure enough, Boston placed Casas on the 60-day IL yesterday. Casas is likely to be out until the All-Star break, or longer, making him a drop in all 12-team leagues and most 15-team leagues, with an exception for teams with above-average roster flexibility.

Bellinger suffered two fractured ribs earlier this week and, at this time, there is no public timetable for his return. It seems like Bellinger is going to be out for a while, but fantasy managers should not assume that the timetable announced for Casas also applies to Bellinger. They have different injuries, and, at this point, their relative severity is unknown. When an injury involves one of my “core” players, as Bellinger is to his managers, I think it is reasonable to hold for a week, if possible, in the hopes of acquiring more actionable information. I can see dropping Bellinger if stretched for roster flexibility, particularly in 12-team leagues, but would be more inclined to do so in 15-team leagues. Notably, unlike Casas, Bellinger has not been placed on the 60-day IL.

Thomas suffered a Grade 2 MCL sprain on an attempted stolen base and, while he will be out for an extended period of time, the MRI results were encouraging to the Nationals, who feared an even more serious injury. At this point, the timetable for Thomas to return has not been announced, but in attempting to read between the lines (a dangerous activity but one fantasy managers must undertake in the absence of information), a recovery period of 1-2 months seems likely. As is the case with Bellinger, managers desiring more information before dropping Thomas can try to hold for a week in the hope that such additional information becomes available.

This past week, Jordan Walker and Jackson Holliday were demoted. Walker spent most of last season in the majors and hit a very respectable 16 home runs in 117 games with a .276 average in his age-20 season. Walker got off to a slow start in 2024 and was hitting only .155 with no homers at the time of his demotion. Without question Walker was struggling, but a .214 BABIP and improved exit velocity and barrel rate suggest all was not bad under the hood. I still think Walker has legitimate upside (he’s not yet 22). I definitely can understand fantasy managers moving on in 12-team leagues, but in 15-teamers I would try to hold at least for a few weeks and monitor how Walker performs in Triple-A. If Walker hits well, I can see the Cardinals – who have struggled to score runs consistently – calling him back up before too long.

I think Holliday’s situation is different. While Holliday is a higher-ranked prospect than Walker – and arguably the game’s top prospect at this time – he appeared overmatched in his big-league debut. Holliday only turned 20 this past December and suffered through a terrible 2-for-34 start. While Holliday was somewhat unlucky (.125 BABIP), he whiffed in 50% of his plate appearances. The Orioles are a very strong team without Holliday – they arguably do not need him right now – and also have numerous other strong prospects ready to step in when needed. While speculation on my part, I suspect that the Orioles are going to wait until Holliday is raking in the minors before even considering calling him back up; the team will want to do everything possible to make sure their star prospect does not fail a second time. When evaluating whether to hold onto demoted players, managers need two things to happen for such a decision to pay-off: (1) the players need to be recalled to the majors quickly; and (2) they need to perform much better than they did when they were demoted. In Holliday’s case, I am skeptical that either occurs in 2024 despite his very bright longer-term outlook.

Finally, let’s address two disappointing catchers, Henry Davis and Alejandro Kirk. Many fantasy managers drafted Davis, a former first overall draft pick, as an outfielder and counted the days until he gained catcher eligibility, which happened quickly. Unfortunately for his managers, however, it’s been all downhill from there. Going into today’s games, Davis has zero home runs, zero stolen bases and is hitting .175 with a 32.5% K rate. I’m surprised by how poorly Davis has looked, but given the alternatives in most 15-team leagues, I can understand holding him a little longer given his pedigree, raw power and the chance for some stolen bases from the catcher position. The case for dropping is stronger in 12-team leagues.

Kirk similarly has been very disappointing for his fantasy managers. I think he’s a clear drop in 12-team leagues and can be dropped in 15-team leagues if there are attractive options available in FAAB. Some of the things that disturb me about Kirk’s prospects moving forward are: (1) at best, he’s in a job share with Danny Jansen but, if Jansen hits as some expect, Kirk is likely to lose playing time; (2) the power has disappeared (14 homers in 2022, 8 last season, and zero so far in 2024); (3) the Blue Jays offense has been disappointing and Kirk’s counting stats are suffering (only 1 run scored all season); and (4) Kirk is doing lousy in batting average (.167), and that is supposed to be his primary fantasy asset. To be fair, Kirk has been unlucky with a sub-.200 BABIP, and so the batting average should rebound to some extent. That noted, there should be more appealing options in 12-team leagues; in 15-teamers, the preferable options may be more limited, which should influence hold/drop decisions.

Potential Pitcher Drops

Merrill Kelly was placed on the IL this week with a shoulder strain. It turns out the injury is more serious than first expected. Following testing, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo indicated, “We’re not looking in terms of weeks as what we had hoped for. So I think the next step up is a month, more than that.” While surgery is not expected, Lovullo reportedly was non-committal regarding whether Kelly would be back before the All-Star break. Kelly has been remarkably consistent – since the start of the 2022 season, he has tallied over 400 innings, won 27 games and pitched to a sub-3.40 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP. Despite this impressive run, I do not think Kelly rises to the level where fantasy managers should be holding him for what could be a multi-month absence. I think he’s an easy drop in 12-team leagues and also should be dropped in the vast majority of 15-team leagues.

Coming off a second Cy Young season, Blake Snell held out for a mammoth free agent contract that never materialized to his satisfaction. He eventually signed a short-term contract with the Giants and, following a late start to the season, made three terrible starts totaling only 11.2 innings with an 11.57 ERA and 1.97 WHIP, before going on the IL with an adductor strain. While nothing has gone right this season for Snell, patience is warranted here. Having missed spring training, Snell’s eventual activation was rushed, perhaps contributing to his poor start. The injury does not sound serious – he’s probably out 2-4 weeks – and a reset might be good for him. While rostering Snell in fantasy can be exasperating, he should return sometime in May (with over four months of the season remaining) and still possesses the upside of a top-10 starting pitcher. Although Snell was due for real regression in 2024, I still think he’s worth holding in all formats.

Gavin Williams is a tougher call (at least for me). Williams is a high prospect with wipeout stuff (30+% K% in the minors) who was expected to be a major piece of the Guardians’ rotation this season. In March, Williams experienced elbow pain throwing a heavy ball in spring training, causing him to start the season on the IL. After pitching in a simulated game last weekend, he experienced soreness “in the back of his elbow.” The Guardians decided to shut Williams down for a week, and he’s been given an anti-inflammatory injection. Referring to the team’s medical staff, manager Stephen Vogt stated that, “They’re hoping at the end of these seven days he can resume throwing and not fall too far back.” At this point, Williams’ setback could be a short one, or turn into something much longer. Realistically, a best-case scenario would be a late-May activation date, but given that the injury is to his throwing elbow, and he’s already suffered one setback, his absence could last much longer. Notwithstanding an appealing upside, Williams should be dropped in most 12-team leagues. I am wrestling with the hold/drop decision for one of my Main Event teams. My usual practice is to move on once an injured, stashed player experiences a setback. That call is complicated here because: (1) the setback may be a short one; (2) this team lost Spencer Strider early in the season and could use a starter with upside and high strikeout numbers; (3) alternatives available in FAAB with similar upside appear nonexistent; and (4) at least as of now, I can afford to maintain the stash (although whether it is wise to do so is a tougher call).

Speaking of setbacks, the decision of whether to drop or stash Cody Bradford unfortunately became easier for his fantasy managers. Bradford was off to a stellar start for Texas, winning his first three starts with a 1.40 ERA and 0.62 WHIP, before going on an out-of-the-blue IL stint with a sore back. After an initial mild prognosis, the Rangers subsequently did further testing, which revealed a stress fracture of Bradford’s bottom rib. The only time frame I have come across is that he will now be out at least a month, if not longer. I think this development makes Bradford a drop. There is no guarantee Bradford is fully ready to return in a month, and with Max Scherzer due back before that time, it is not 100% certain that Bradford regains his rotation spot immediately or for too long (in addition to Scherzer, the Rangers are expecting Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle back sometime this summer).

Continuing with the theme of setbacks, Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald, out with an oblique injury but expected back imminently, reported soreness yesterday, causing his rehab to be paused, at least temporarily. Thus, fantasy managers planning to move on from Kevin Ginkel similarly should hit pause on those plans. While save opportunities have been in short supply for Ginkel recently, he seems likely to remain Arizona’s closer for at least another week. Meanwhile, Sewald’s managers should continue to hold for now; the setback sounds minor and he could be closing games within a week or so.

Unlike Sewald, I think Ryne Stanek now can be dropped in most formats. Fantasy managers in search of saves rostered Stanek early after he converted save opportunities during each of the first two full weeks of the season. At the time, the Mariners were utilizing Andres Munoz as the high-leverage reliever and, with Matt Brash out, Stanek suddenly was receiving save opportunities. While Brash recently experienced a setback with his rehab, causing the Mariners to shut him down entirely and indefinitely (he is a must drop in all formats), the save opportunities have dried up for Stanek, with all recent ones going to Munoz. The Mariners’ bullpen usage patterns certainly can change again, and I would be surprised if Stanek did not continue to receive periodic save opportunities, but in most leagues there probably are better speculations available for saves-hungry managers.

In four starts, Louie Varland pitched to a 9.18 ERA and 2.16 WHIP and, not surprisingly, was sent back down to the minors. If there is a compelling reason for fantasy managers to hold onto Varland, it is a mystery to me.

James Paxton is having one of the strangest starts to the season. On the positive side, through four starts, he has two wins and an excellent 2.61 ERA. On the negative side, he’s pitched lousy, has a harmful 1.55 WHIP and his strikeout rate is only 12.4% (4.79 K/9) versus a 19.1% walk rate (7.40 BB/9). Paxton has benefitted from a .220 BABIP and 89% LOB%, neither of which likely is sustainable. Such poor underlying metrics are surprising (last season, Paxton had a 24.6% K% compared to an 8% BB%). While Paxton may be limited to a matchup play in the near-term, I’d be leery about dropping a starting pitcher for the Dodgers who, while fragile, has a track record of pretty strong performance. I recommend benching – but holding – Paxton for a week or two and seeing if his performance improves.

Finally, the Phillies have decided to remove Spencer Turnbull (30 K in 27 IP, 1.33 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) from the rotation in favor of Taijuan Walker (sub-20% K%, 4.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP in 2023). Even accounting for the need to manage Turnbull’s innings coming off very limited recent use (116 total IP from 2021-2023), the decision is puzzling, not to mention extremely frustrating for Turnbull’s fantasy managers. In many or most 12-team formats, Turnbull’s move to a bullpen role constitutes sufficient grounds to drop him. In 15-team formats, I think the case for holding still is compelling. All Turnbull needs to regain a rotation spot is for (i) Walker to be terrible, or (ii) another starting pitcher to suffer an injury. In the meantime, the Phillies should utilize Turnbull in extended relief appearances, and he could provide strikeouts and good ratios over 4-6 innings in relief on a weekly basis, which is preferable to what most managers will get from their final starting pitcher.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am going to challenge myself by focusing solely on pitchers who are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters.

After several decent-to-solid weeks anticipating pitching disasters, in Week 5 my picks were the disasters. Hunter Brown is being pushed back and missed the Mexico City series, and Jordan Wicks was scratched in advance of a tough start at Boston. Meanwhile, to my surprise, Tanner Bibee stifled the Braves in Atlanta and JP Sears shut down the Yankees in the Bronx. Despite my best efforts, I am embarrassed to say that my disaster picks for Week 5 did better than the vast majority of fantasy teams, including my own. I am determined to rebound this week.

In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “Disaster” picks thus far. Week 4 has been updated to reflect Hunter Brown’s start last Sunday. Week 5 shows results through yesterday’s games and, if necessary, will be updated next week.