Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (4/21)

It has been an interesting week. The injuries are piling up, and, if you’re like me, patience for players massively underperforming is starting to wane. Unlike prior fantasy seasons, however, there has not been much of an influx of appealing prospects. Paul Skenes, the top pitching prospect in baseball, still needs to improve according to the Pirates. Skenes’ statistics at Triple-A thus far – 27 strikeouts in 12.2 innings, 0.00 ERA and 0.71 WHIP – reveal the extent of his (imaginary) struggles. Not to be undone, the Marlins thanked Max Meyer for three stellar starts (2 wins, 2.12 ERA and 0.82 WHIP) by demoting him to Triple-A. Miami decided that after 17 innings, it was time to actively manage Meyers’ workload.

While only two isolated examples, the near-term fates of Skenes and Meyers are indicative of a player pool that is tightening, with injured and under-performing players providing plenty of options for potential drops, but the universe of very attractive options to acquire seems substantially smaller. In this type of environment, it is especially important to be careful in deciding which players to drop. While it may feel temporarily gratifying to cast disappointing draft picks off rosters, be careful about dropping established players with track records of performance for unheralded newcomers coming off a strong game or week. As a reminder, in my introductory article I discussed many of the factors that managers should consider in deciding upon potential drops.

It is important to evaluate underperforming players dispassionately and attempt to distinguish cold starts from degrading skills. For instance, the table below highlights the statistics of certain players through April 21 of last year and how those players finished the season.

Each of these players were frustrating as hell to own through the first 3-4 weeks of last season, and yet dropping any of them would have been a terrible mistake. Importantly, the purpose of this “history lesson” is not to dissuade fantasy managers from dropping players; the 2023 season had many examples of players getting off to cold starts and remaining disappointing. Rather, the lesson here, as always, is to be careful with your drops. In particular, be cautious about overreacting to disappointing surface stats over a limited sample size, especially when the player in question has a track record of performance or a high prospect pedigree.

Some of the players who should at least be considered as potential drops are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

Kris Bryant hit the IL this past week and, sadly, that’s about all he’s hit lately. Bryant’s latest injury provides a good opportunity to examine his fantasy usefulness going forward. From a distance, Bryant should be a fantasy asset. He has dual eligibility (1B and OF), hits high in the Rockies lineup and plays half of his games at Coors Field. Bryant, however, has had trouble staying on the field and, when playing, is a far cry from his early days with the Cubs. Over the last two seasons, Bryant played in 122 games and missed 202 games. Last season, he generated an uninspiring 10/36/31/0/.233 stat line over 80 games. Bryant had 10 stolen bases in 2021 and none since. So far in 2024, Bryant is hitting .149 with only one home run. While there is plenty of time for Bryant to turn his season around, fantasy managers should recognize that the player who won Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player awards is not the player that exists today, and to separate the reputation from the reality.

Joey Meneses was a marginal fantasy player to start the season, with limited relevance outside of 15-team leagues. Meneses has two strikes against him: (1) he is a utility-only hitter; and (2) is on the Nationals, which projects to be a bad team. Meneses made his MLB debut in 2022 at the age of 30. He got off to a great start, hitting 13 home runs and batting .324 in 56 games that season. Meneses’ power output took a big step back in 2023. While hitting .275 with 160 combined runs and RBIs, he managed only 13 home runs in 154 games. Despite the absence of strong power, fantasy managers still saw Meneses as a solid, full-time hitter in the middle of the Nationals lineup with a chance at gaining first base eligibility early in the season. Thus far in 2024, Meneses’ average has fallen (.217 coming into today’s games) and he has yet to homer. Even more troubling, Meneses sat for several games recently and is making slow progress (four games) toward first base eligibility. Fantasy managers need to decide whether a UT-only player who lacks power and does not play everyday still is worth rostering. Meneses is capable of hitting better and replicating last season’s stats, but there is no guarantee he will do so, and his skillset is far from unique. 

Gavin Lux had a stellar 2019 season. In 64 games at Double-A, Lux hit 13 home runs, stole 7 bases and hit .313, earning him a promotion to Triple-A where, in 49 games, he hit another 13 home runs and a remarkable .392, leading to a late-season promotion to the Dodgers. Fast forward five years, and fantasy managers now need to ask themselves whether Lux still should be considered a good baseball player. To be fair, he has battled multiple injuries, one of which cost him the entire 2023 season. That noted, (i) in 2021, in 102 games, he hit 7 home runs, stole 4 bases and hit a mediocre .242, and (ii) in 2022, in 129 games, he only had 6 home runs and 7 stolen bases, but did hit a solid .276. So far this season, Lux still belongs to the “zero/zero club” (zero home runs and zero stolen bases). He has had bad luck with batted balls in play but also is walking less and striking out more than his historical MLB averages. I am not advocating that Lux be dropped by all managers, especially in 15-team leagues because he still starts most games for the Dodgers in a prolific lineup. But managers electing to retain Lux on their rosters should not consider him a “plug-and-play” hitter but, rather, evaluate him weekly for signs of life. In other words, he’s getting close to his “sell by” date and may have passed it in 12-team leagues.

One mistake I’ve made in the past with FAAB is dedicating an inordinate amount of time evaluating potential targets while spending an inadequate time evaluating my own roster. For fantasy managers rostering Andrew Vaughn, do not make this mistake. While the case for holding onto Vaughn is stronger than that of Lux, I’ve included Vaughn on the potential drop list in hopes that his managers take stock of his performance to date. Like Lux (and to be fair, many others), Vaughn is a member of the zero/zero club, and his other stats are not any better. While we still are in April with over five months to go, Vaughn only has 4 runs and 3 RBI heading into today’s games and is hitting a measly .153. Thus, Vaughn is actively hurting his managers in all five hitting categories. Vaughn was unspectacular but steady in 2023, hitting 21 home runs, with 147 combined runs plus RBI and a .258 average. A former first-round, third-overall draft pick, Vaughn has a strong pedigree and should be much better than what he has shown to date. I expect Vaughn will improve and would not overreact to a slow start, but the team context is terrible, and given the lack of power and production, managers should place Vaughn on their watch lists for increased scrutiny.

Earlier in this article, I wrote about the need to distinguish between cold starts and degrading skills. Jose Abreu’s skills have, I think, degraded past the point of rebounding. At 37, he is starting to lose playing time, and that is no surprise given his performance. Coming into today’s games, Abreu – another member of the zero/zero club – only has 1 RBI and is hitting a microscopic .068. Sadly, after a strong career, I think fantasy managers can say goodbye to Abreu with little fear of missing a miraculous rebound.

Finally, let’s address Francisco Alvarez, who recently suffered a torn ligament in his thumb that will require surgery. Preliminary reports indicate that Alvarez is likely to miss 6-8 weeks, although that period may be adjusted following the surgery. Alvarez only has 1 home run and is hitting .236. Notwithstanding such modest stats, assuming the timeline remains the same, Alvarez is a definite hold in 15-team leagues and probably should be held in 12-team leagues. While fantasy managers enjoyed a relatively strong catcher pool this past drafting season, the bottom of that pool still is quite ugly, and Alvarez is capable of compiling strong stats upon his return. In 2023, Alvarez hit 25 home runs in only 423 plate appearances and remains capable of approaching that figure in 2024 with a strong second half.

Potential Pitcher Drops

While most fantasy managers who had speculated on Robert Stephenson taking over the Angels’ closer role from Carlos Estevez had jumped ship after news of an elbow issue first was reported, those keeping the faith will not be rewarded, as the team announced this past Wednesday that Stephenson will miss the entire 2024 season. Thus, Stephenson now is a clear drop in all formats.

Ricky Tiedemann was a popular stash during the NFBC’s draft season. Tiedemann is one of baseball’s top pitching prospects and, with Alek Manoah still experiencing difficulties, it seemed as if Tiedemann might get an early call-up. Instead, Toronto initially gave the fifth starter role to Bowden Francis and, when that predictably did not work out, the Blue Jays turned to Yariel Rodriguez, raising questions as to when Tiedemann would get his shot. Unfortunately for Tiedemann stashers, he has not earned that promotion. In his first three starts at Triple-A, Tiedemann struggled, lasting only eight innings and, while recording 10 strikeouts, he also allowed nine walks and five earned runs. On April 18, Toronto announced that Tiedemann had been placed on the 7-day IL for undisclosed reasons. The next day, we found out that Tiedemann had an MRI on his left elbow and had been placed on the IL with elbow discomfort. The case for continuing to stash Tiedemann is becoming increasingly tenuous.

There are two Miami starting pitchers on this week’s potential drop list. Max Meyer got off to a strong start, winning two of his first three starts, compiling a 14.2% SwStr%, 2.12 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. In his last start, Meyer pitched a six-inning gem, holding the Braves to one run while compiling seven strikeouts without any walks. Following that stellar outing, the Marlins, being a poorly-run team, demoted Meyer, so that he can pitch once a week for three-inning stints in the minors. While there’s no doubt given past health issues that Meyer’s workload should be managed, fantasy managers did not expect this concern to necessitate a demotion after a mere 17 innings. While Meyer looks great, there are arguments both for and against attempting to stash him for what could be 1-2 months, with no guarantees he stays healthy or is allowed to pitch deep enough into games upon his return to qualify for wins.

At the opposite end of the performance spectrum is A.J. Puk. After sending Meyer down to the minors, the Marlins started Puk and experienced his fourth consecutive ineffective outing. To describe Puk as bad this season would be an understatement. Through four starts, Puk has an appalling 9.22 ERA, 2.63 WHIP and negative 6.5% K-BB%. In 13.2 innings, Puk allowed 17 walks. Following a strong 2023 season, there was a case for drafting Puk and, with Tanner Scott struggling, a belief developed that Puk would be removed from the Marlins rotation and inserted as the team’s closer. Yesterday, Miami placed Puk on the IL with “shoulder fatigue” – probably from walking so many batters – and it now is time for fantasy managers to stop wish-casting and remove Puk from their rosters.

Eduardo Rodriguez suffered a setback last week related to the left (throwing) shoulder, prompting the Diamondbacks to transfer him from the 15-day to the 60-day IL. Arizona manager Torey Lovullo said that it likely would be sometime in June before Rodriguez would be able to return. At this point, Rodriguez is no longer worth stashing (if he ever was).

Two of the more interesting pitching hold/drop calls this week involve Cody Bradford and Kenta Maeda. Bradford had an excellent spring training and, thanks to injuries, made the Rangers rotation to start the season. He rewarded the team’s faith with three stellar starts – all wins – compiling a 1.42 ERA and 0.62 WHIP, with 17 strikeouts and only 2 walks over 19.1 innings. Unfortunately for fantasy managers rostering Bradford, he surprisingly was placed on the IL with back soreness last weekend, leading to him being dropped in a number of leagues. While recent news on Bradford is scarce, the injury does not sound overly serious, and I would be reluctant to drop him if there’s a chance Bradford returns to action in the next week or two. While Max Scherzer appears to be on the road to returning earlier than anticipated, the Rangers rotation is nothing special at this point, and a healthy Bradford might be better than Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray and/or Dane Dunning. In other words, when healthy, Bradford has at least a decent chance of rejoining the starting rotation of a very strong team. Given the current state of pitching, he’s a hold for me in both 15-team and 12-team formats.

Maeda is a tougher call. He does not throw a lot of innings, but for many years has provided strong ratios with solid strikeout rates. This season, however, things have gone poorly for Maeda and his fantasy managers. Through four starts, Meada is winless with a 7.64 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Peeking under the covers, there are good reasons to be concerned. From 2016-2023, Meada had swinging-strike rates between 11.6% and 17.2%; in 2024, his SwStr% is 7.5%. Maeda’s current K rate of 15.0% is well off his previous career low of 24.9%. Maeda’s BB% is higher than in any prior season, his fastball velocity is at a career low and his Barrel% is at a career high. Maeda just turned 36, and it is possible that his days as a useful fantasy pitcher may be nearing an end. While I recommend above that managers say good-bye to a rapidly-aging Jose Abreu, I favor a more cautious approach with Maeda for two reasons. First, I find good starting pitchers to be scarcer than usable corner infielders and, therefore, recommend giving previously-strong starters a longer leash. Second, unlike Abreu who struggled in 2023, Maeda was effective as recently as last season (4.23 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 20.8% K-BB%). Thus, while there are reasons to be concerned with Maeda’s performance, at least in 15-team leagues I’d be inclined to stash him for a few more starts to see if he is able to turn things around.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am going to challenge myself by focusing solely on pitchers who are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters.

Last week’s disaster picks were a mixed bag. I nailed several disasters, but there were several unexpectedly strong starts, including Reynaldo Lopez taming the Astros and Alec Marsh stifling the Orioles. Despite those outcomes, my picks still combined for an unattractive 4.50 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “Disaster” picks thus far. Week 4 shows results through yesterday’s games and, if necessary, will be updated next week.