Diamond Data — 7 Stats to Know for MLB DFS Wednesday (7/6)

Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced.

Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Wednesday’s DFS slate.

1. 18.3%

Lance Lynn started his 2022 campaign with a rocky start after coming off the IL in mid-June, but things are definitely looking promising after a gem of a start in San Francisco where he allowed just three hits over six scoreless innings. One thing that stands out when looking at his pitch charts is that he did not throw a single cutter in his first two starts after coming off the IL, which was surprising because the Cutter has been a staple in his pitch repertoire over the years. He threw a few in his start against the Orioles, but against the Giants, he threw the pitch 18.3% of the time, and it ended up being his best pitch by a large margin. I’m not saying this is small sample size proves he’s a revitalized man, but it does give me more comfort in locking him in. 

2. 1.412

I talked about Paul Goldschmidt being much more comfortable at home compared to away from Busch Stadium in Monday’s Diamond Data, but I need to do a roundabout and also talk about some positives considering Goldy is having a career resurgence this season. He is arguably the biggest left-handed pitcher killer in baseball right now with his .582 wOBA, .389 ISO, .561 OBP, and massive .852 SLG which gives him a ridiculous 1.412 OPS against southpaws. 

3. 7/6

Somehow, someway, José Ureña is back in the league, folks. He has had a mediocre start to his career that actually led him to get a few appearances in the Brewers bullpen this season, but somehow, he’s back in the bigs after a brief campaign in AAA Albuquerque where he put together a 7.29 ERA, 2.14 WHIP and massive 7/6 K/BB ratio. It has been a few weeks since the Dodgers have put together a massive showing at the plate and this matchup against Urena makes me wonder if he’s what it takes to unleash the breakout. 

4. 1.84

Speaking of terrible pitchers named Jose, today’s my weekly opportunity to point out that José Berríos is a massive fraud. I’ve pretty much leaned on his super high barrel and hard hit rates throughout the season, but I also need to highlight the fact that he’s allowing a lot of homers. His 1.84 HR/9 is the second worst among qualified starting pitchers this season. One might want to lean on him due to the ballpark upgrade in Oakland, but I say to continue to use caution. 

5. 277

Baseball’s best hitter throughout the month of June was by-far Yordan Alvarez. His 277 wRC+ was 69 points ahead of the second-place guy (Alejandro Kirk), and he’s showing absolutely zero signs of slowing down in July with a game-winning homer Monday, followed by another late-inning long ball Tuesday.

6. 6.60

I’m not sure there’s any one statistic that shows Glenn Otto doing anything remotely well, but I guess his four wins this season means something (more like the law of averages is going to rock his world before the season is over). He gives up way too much contact and a good percentage of that contact end up being hard contact at that. His 6.60 xERA is certainly major cause for concern, and it could very well mean another day of feasting for a very hot Orioles lineup. 

7. 34.4%

Brayan Bello has made a very rapid rise to the big leagues at the young age of 23. He has three plus pitches in his pitch repertoire that he has utilized to put together an impressive 34.4% K rate and 12.62 K/9 through nine appearances in AAA Worcester this season. It almost makes too much sense to lean on him tonight against a very strikeout-prone Rays team.