NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s MLB DFS slate.
1. Shohei Ohtani has struck out 10+ hitters in each of his last four starts
Shohei Ohtani also has a 44% K% over the last month to go along with a 38% CSW% and a 15.84 K/9.
2. The Pirates have a lineup featuring 7 hitters who strikeout 22% of the time or more to RHPs
This should be a great spot for Zack Wheeler to regain some of that strong K upside, as he has just a 23% K% over the last month but is sitting at 27% on the year.
3. Alex Wood is striking out over 24% of hitters this season.
Alex Wood has had some solid K stuff so far this season, and he has also been elite at limiting power to both sides of the plate, as RHHs have just a .150 ISO against him this season, and LHHs sit at .056.
4. Over the last 30 days, Alex Wood has the second-highest CSW% on the slate
He also has the third-highest K/9, showing that Wood may have a bit more upside than general perception gives him credit for. He also has a nice price, a decent matchup, and gets to pitch in his pitcher-friendly home ballpark.
5. Spencer Howard has allowed a .379 ISO to RHHs this season, while also allowing a .238 ISO to LHHs
This Angels lineup does strike out a ton, but they also have some scary bats in it such as Taylor Ward, Jared Walsh and Max Stassi, who all have .191 ISOs or better against RHPs this season. It is a bummer that you can’t use Ohtani in stacks as he is pitching, but Jo Adell makes for an interesting value option as he has some stolen base upside as well as a .165/.330 ISO/wOBA slash-line against RHPs this year.
6. José Ureña has just a 3.00 ERA this season, but a 5.29 SIERA and a 5.01 xFIP
José Ureña has been more than serviceable, which is all the Rockies could ask for. But the regression appears to be on its way soon, and against the Dodgers in Coors Field could be a big night for it. Those SIERA and xFIP numbers are the highest on the slate for a starting pitcher, and he also has the second-highest xISO and xSLG on the board.
7. Tyler Alexander has a 5.06 SIERA and 5.05 xFIP
These numbers being high aren’t a surprise considering Tyler Alexander has an 8.76 ERA as a starter this year and a 4.05 ERA in general, but he has been much worse when he gets the nod as a start so far this season. Last season, he allowed a .200 ISO to RHHs with a 47% hard-contact rate and just a 37% GB%. This Blue Jays team has five hitters with a .190 ISO or better against LHPs including Danny Jansen and Teoscar Hernández, who are both north of .300.
