MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/8)
Josh Gross
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced. Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Monday’s DFS slate.
1. 1
Alek Manoah has made 11 starts for the Toronto Blue Jays this season and has allowed more than two earned runs in an outing just ONE time this season. He is about as consistent as any starting pitcher in baseball, and you can use him with confidence tonight against the Orioles.
2. 13.4%
With advanced statistics being so prominent in the game of baseball nowadays, I feel it’s very clear that one stat pitchers really need to limit is barrels. Per MLB…
“The Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015.”
So yes, it’s very straightforward. If this stat is high for a pitcher, you absolutely have to be wary. Unfortunately for Josiah Gray, among eligible pitchers, Gray’s 13.4% barrel rate is the second-worst in all of baseball (behind Bruce Zimmermann). With that said, Gray has been able to string together some solid outings over his past three starts, but there’s no doubt that he can stand to improve on his overall command, which is why he’s prone to giving up the long ball.
3. 106.8 MPH
Byron Buxton OWNS Chris Flexen’s soul. In six career plate appearances against Flexen, Buxton has gone 5-for-5 (1.000 AVG) with 1 HR, 3 doubles, a walk, a 2.200 SLG and average exit velocity of 106.8 MPH. I have two words for you. GOOD LORD.
4. 1
The Tigers have hit a grand total of one home run in the month of June. Yikes. They have a shot to snap out of their funk today against Lance Lynn, who will be making his first start of the season after some rough rehab stints where he allowed 10 earned runs in a total of 10 innings pitched. I would say it’s probably wise to not be a hero in this spot. It’ll probably make more sense to play Lynn, who is a paltry $5,500, on FanDuel.
5. 22
On the other end of the spectrum is the Philadelphia Phillies, who have hit a whopping 22 home runs through the first few weeks of June. That’s certainly the main reason why the red-hot Sandy Alcantara isn’t an automatic play tonight. Still, plenty of leverage is available if you want to go that route, but I am going to be extremely wary of this situation with the Phillies bats looking to quickly rebound after a rough Sunday against the D-Backs.
6. 7.22% and 20.1%
Yu Darvish has not had a season in his nine-year MLB career with less than a 10.08 K/9 or 27.1% K/rate. But this season, those strikeout numbers have dropped significantly to a 7.22% K/9 and 20.1% K/rate. I’m not saying let’s all go pick on Darvish now. He’s still an above-average pitcher, but we’re going to be able to take our shots against him at various points this season. You can also increase overall exposures if targeting against him.
7. 0
Kyle Bradish has made eight starts this season and has not gone one game without allowing at least one home run. A matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, on paper, doesn’t really appear to be a matchup that Bradish would circle to break out of this rough streak.
