NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Monday’s DFS slate.
1.Freddy Peralta is projected for the most strikeouts today.
According to our MLB Strikeout Model, Freddy Peralta’s projected for 8.8 strikeouts, which is 2.6 higher than the next-closest pitcher in Alex Wood. Peralta had a rough start to the season, as he coughed up nine runs on 10 hits and walked six over his first two outings (7 IP). He managed to strike out 10 over that span but has only topped seven strikeouts in one of his six starts (last week @ CIN). He may just get to eight again, as the Braves enter with the highest strikeout rate in baseball (25.9%) and fifth-highest vs RHP (25%). We have him projected for the most fantasy points on the slate with the second-highest ownership, according to our FTN MLB Optimizer.
2. Kyle Bradish racked up 131 strikeouts in 101 innings last season.
Orioles’ rookie pitcher Kyle Bradish struck out 131 batters in 101 combined innings between AA and AAA last season. 105 of those punchouts came in 86 AAA innings in 2021. He had 17 strikeouts in 15 AAA innings this season before the call up and has 16K through his first 17 big league innings, including 11 over seven innings in his last start against St. Louis. Not bad at all when you consider the Cardinals have the second-lowest K% vs. RHP this season (19.6%). The Yankees have a ton of power, but they strike out a tad more vs. RHP than STL (21.6%). Bradish is a risky play, but the ceiling is there, and his 2.37 fantasy points per dollar on DraftKings is second on the slate behind Wade Miley, who has very little strikeout upside. Bradish has a respectable 11.6 SwStr% so far. His strikeout prop is 4.5 at +120, and I’m interested. Consider Bradish as your SP2 in tournaments on DK.
(Build your MLB DFS lineup with our Optimizer!)
3. The Los Angeles Angels lead MLB in home runs against right-handed pitchers.
The Angels have a league-high 40 bombs, a .194 ISO and a .438 SLG vs. RHP this season. They also rank second in OPS (.758) and wRC+ (124), and third in wOBA (.336) against righties. Jon Gray will make his debut in Texas tonight, and it hasn’t been easy for him as a member of the Rangers so far. The former Rockie has allowed 10 runs on 13 hits over 16.1 innings and is walking a career-high 3.86 batters per nine innings. Taylor Ward continues to tear the cover off RHP: .366/.483/.789 with a 1.271 OPS, .423 ISO, .535 wOBA and 267 wRC+. He has eight homers, 22 RBI, 18 runs, four doubles and a triple against righties.
4. Antonio Senzatela has a league-high 87.6 contact rate.
Antonio Senzatela enters tonight’s outing with a 8:7 K:BB over his 27.2 innings. He’s walked at least two batters in three straight starts and only has one strikeout in each of those three outings. He’s allowed 47 hits and 15 runs in his six starts, and at least seven hits in each outing. In fact, Senzatela is tied for the league-lead in hits allowed with his teammates Kyle Freeland and Germán Márquez. The Giants may have as many as six lefty bats in their lineup, including LaMonte Wade Jr. (value) and Joc Pederson. Yes, you guessed it, Senzatela has the highest projected ERA on the slate. The Giants will be chalky, but they’re hard to ignore when you consider the contact they’ll be able to make against Senzatela.
5. Triston McKenzie has a 52.4% fly-ball rate.
Triston McKenzie has the highest fly-ball rate on the slate, and the Brewers have the second-most homers vs. RHP (37). McKenzie has only allowed three homers on the season (two in his last start), but he served up 21 in 120 innings last year. McKenzie also has a 3.70 BB/9 for his career, which tends to get him in trouble. Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames each have seven bombs against righies.
6. Madison Bumgarner has the largest gap between his ERA and FIP.
Madison Bumgarner checks in with a 1.78 ERA and 4.69 FIP on the season. That’s a difference of -2.91, which is the highest mark in the league among qualified pitchers. Overall, the lefty has a 4.85 xFIP, which ranks fourth among pitchers with 30 innings on the 2022 resume. His 88% strand rate is unsustainable when you consider he has 20 strikeouts in 30.1 innings. His 5.93 K/9, 3.56 BB/9, 7.3 SwStr% and 84% contact rate are the worst marks of his career. Understandably, the Dodgers have the highest team implied total among teams not playing at Coors Field.
(More: Check out Jake Kucheck’s look at the Monday’s starting pitching slate in The Opener.)
7. The Red Sox have three hitters in the top 15 in hits vs. RHP.
Xander Bogaerts’ 35 hits against righties is just one behind the league lead (Ty France). Only one of those hits has gone over the wall, but he’s still rocking a very strong .347 average against righties. Rafael Devers has 31 hits vs. RHP (T6), and J.D. Martinez has 28 (T15). The Red Sox have struggled to score runs for most of the season (23rd), but they’re starting to turn the corner. Boston has scored at least seven runs in three of their past five games and put up 11 on Saturday. Jake Odorizzi has been strong over his past three outings, but he’s still rocking an 82% contact rate and 43% fly ball rate.
