Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the five stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s DFS slate.
1. Spencer Strider has a 36% K%
Spencer Strider has a 2.87 ERA and 3.25 xFIP. He’s allowed an ISO below .100 to both right- and left-handed hitters. C.J. Cron is the only hitter in the Rockies lineup with an ISO above .200 against right-handed pitching. Six hitters in the Colorado lineup are right-handed and Strider has a 42% K% against right-handed hitters. He has a 2.54 ERA at home and the Rockies are 29th in all of baseball averaging 3.06 runs per game on the road entering play Thursday. Strider is the clear SP1 on this slate.
2. Brandon Woodruff has a 29% K%
Brandon Woodruff has a 3.31 ERA and 3.74 xFIP. Christian Walker and Daulton Varsho are the only hitters in the Diamondbacks lineup with ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season. There are seven left-handed hitters in the Arizona lineup and Woodruff has a 36% K% against left-handed hitters. He has a 4.34 ERA on the road and Arizona is 10th in all of baseball averaging 4.63 runs per game at home entering play Thursday. Woodruff is more of a boom-or-bust tournament play given the added strikeout upside with lefty bats in the lineup, but also his shaky record on the road.
3. Glenn Otto has a 5.65 xFIP
Glenn Otto has a 16% K% and 12% BB%. He allowed four earned runs to the Tigers in his last start. Otto has allowed a .153 ISO to right-handed hitters and a .130 ISO to left-handed hitters. Franchy Cordero ($2,000), Christian Arroyo ($2,400) and Alex Verdugo ($3,700) are all too cheap on DraftKings here. Tommy Pham ($4,700) and J.D. Martinez ($4,600) are my other favorite plays for the Red Sox. Boston is my favorite overall stack Thursday.
4. Chad Kuhl has a 5.76 xFIP
Chad Kuhl has allowed a .192 ISO to right-handed hitters and a .224 ISO to left-handed hitters. The Braves have four hitters in the lineup with an ISO above .190 against right-handed pitching in Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Michael Harris and Travis d’Arnaud. Ronald Acuña Jr. is always in play and Robbie Grossman is a good value play at $2,400 in the outfield. Atlanta is my second-favorite overall stack.
5. Rich Hill has allowed a .213 ISO to right-handed hitters
The Rangers have three hitters in their lineup with an ISO above .245 against left-handed pitching in Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe and Jonah Heim. Marcus Semien ($4,600) and Adolis García ($4,700) are also in play here. Leody Taveras ($2,200) and Bubba Thompson ($2,000) can each be used as value options. Hill has a 5.54 ERA at home and the Rangers are seventh in all of baseball averaging 4.86 runs per game on the road. Texas is my favorite stack considering pricing.
