Diamond Data — 5 Stats to Know for MLB DFS Monday (6/20)

Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced. Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Monday’s DFS slate.

1. .209

In a clash between division rivals, the Cardinals and Brewers will meet for their third series this season. They are so evenly matched to the point where each team has four wins apiece through their first eight matchups in 2022. In an article centered around data, we love to analyze numbers from teams/batters/pitchers who face each other often, and that’s definitely the case tonight. Corbin Burnes has an extremely good history against these Cardinals hitters. Current Cardinals hitters have a total of 106 total plate appearances against the Brewers ace and have struck out 41.5% of the time, while also putting together a horrid .169 batting average and .209 xwOBA. 

2. .566

BvP is a pretty polarizing topic in DFS MLB. Some people swear by it. Some people completely ignore it. I’m probably more in between in the sense that I think it absolutely matters, but I do feel there are so many other things to take into consideration than BvP. But there’s also many levels of BvP. Like I mentioned with Corbin Burnes, I think data analysis as a whole is more pertinent when there’s more data available, which is generally the case with interdivisional matchups. Ji-Man Choi in particular probably looks like Barry Bonds in the eyes of Gerrit Cole. In 34 plate appearances, Choi has reached base safely 17 times with four homers, three doubles, and six walks. .566 is somehow Choi’s career wOBA against the Yankees ace. Don’t go forcing Ji-Man freaking Choi into your lineups, but if you are searching for a one-off who can give you some sort of leverage and upside, say no more than “G-Money” (Ji-Man’s nickname, not Gerrit).  

3. 11.9% 

Sometimes we have to dig deep and look into some of MLB’s starting pitchers to see if numbers can be deceiving. Call me cynical, but I’ve never really thought of José Berríos as the “ace” he tends to be portrayed as. I almost lost my mind when I heard the Blue Jays acquired him for Austin Martin (who some thought would be the #1 overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft) AND Simeon Woods Richardson. I still kind of feel this way, even though Berrios has had success in a Blue Jays uniform. Most of his numbers, though, leave a lot to be desired, such as his 5.54 xERA, 7.79 K/9, and 20.5% K rate (all of which are the worst of his career). Beyond that though, his 11.9% barrel rate is the second-highest among qualified pitchers in 2022. Targeting against Berrios is going to win people GPPs this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that includes tonight in Chicago. 

4. 1

Noah Syndergaard has been dealt with some tough luck this season, but that tough luck has really been magnified over his last two starts, where he has allowed just one earned run in each start. Somehow, while allowing one earned run in each of those games, he wound up as the losing pitcher of record. It’s tough to use the word “momentum” when it comes to the Los Angeles Angels, but I do feel a lot better about them after they took four out of five from the Mariners in a long weekend series in the Pacific Northwest. Yes, the Angels on paper have been MLB’s worst offense for quite some time, and that even includes this past week, which is crazy considering they did win FOUR OUT OF THEIR LAST FIVE GAMES. I think Thor will rebound tonight, and part of that will be thanks to his counterpart, Kris Bubic of the Royals, who has been pushed around left and right this season. 

5. .491

One of the main reasons why the Angels were able to rebound against the Mariners this past weekend is because of the heroics from the best player in baseball, Mike Trout. I don’t think Trout is a guy who is considered a “lefty” specialist, and it’s fair because most guys who have been named MVP multiple times throughout their career are never going to be called any type of specialist. But numbers wise, Trout is most definitely a “lefty” specialist if it solely means he can crush lefties as well as anyone in baseball, as noted by his .352/.485/.685 stat line against southpaws in 2022. This also includes a ridiculous .491 wOBA. As previously mentioned, Kris Bubic is not having the best of seasons, and it would be absolutely shocking if Trout doesn’t push him around tonight as the Angels return home for a series against the Royals.