Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We only have a few days left in August and around one month left in the 2024 MLB regular season. Where has the time gone? While the fantasy baseball season is writing its final chapters, plenty of storyline and characters in this story are still developing and unfolding. Over the last several weeks, we’ve had plenty of young players getting chances at regular playing time with their respective teams and a handful in particular have stood out lately. Those are the players I’ll be diving into in this week’s Crossed Up here on FTN Fantasy.
Adrian Del Castillo, C, Arizona Diamondbacks
It’s always nice when a talented offensive catcher gets the call to the bigs. We can never have enough C2 options, right? In 13 games with the Diamondbacks, Adrian Del Castillo has slashed .341/.420/.591 with two doubles, three home runs and a 12% walk rate. He’s also struck out in 32% of his 50 plate appearances, but strikeouts were never a major issue for Del Castillo in the minors, so I wouldn’t be concerned by this small sample size so far.
Before his promotion, Del Castillo was one of the top hitters in Triple-A, smacking 36 doubles and 24 home runs with a stellar .319/.403/.608 slash line. Yes, it was the PCL and Reno specifically is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the minors. However, Del Castillo’s metrics in Triple-A were good and those aren’t influenced by park or location. Del Castillo posted an 11.6% barrel rate, 90.7 mph AVG EV and a 47.8% hard-hit rate to pair with a 76.7% contact rate, 11.5% walk rate and a 16.8% strikeout rate.
So far in MLB, Del Castillo’s AVG EV and hard-hit rate don’t stand out, but he does have a 17.9% barrel rate and 39.9% Sweet Spot rate, both of which would put him among the league leaders if he were eligible.
While I don’t think Del Castillo rises to top-10 status at the position, I do believe he has the skills and upside to become a solid back-end C1/high-end C2 option for fantasy with .260-plus/15-plus upside.
Connor Norby, 2B/3B, Miami Marlins
Another rookie off to a decent start is Miami’s Connor Norby, acquired at the trade deadline in the Trevor Rogers trade. In eight games since being promoted to Miami, Norby has already ranked up five doubles, two home runs, a steal and 10 runs scored while slashing .344/.400/.688 with a 20% strikeout rate.
While Norby has never been considered an elite prospect, he’s been in many top-100 rankings for the last couple of years, especially fantasy-focused lists, mine included. Norby began his ascension up rakings with a 29/16 season in 2022 with a .279/.360/.526 slash line and followed that up with a 21/10 season in 128 games last season and was at 17 home runs, 13 steals and a .293/.382/.496 slash line in 94 Triple-A games this season. For his minor league career, Norby averaged 29 home runs and 19 steals per 162 games and was a .285 hitter.
There’s definitely some intrigue with Norby moving forward, but I’m not going overboard with my expectations. Norby’s power is around average and he posted a 87.7 mph AVG EV, 33.5% hard-hit rate and a 10% barrel rate in Triple-A this season. I’d expect Norby to be in the 16-20 homer range, maybe getting into the low-20s some seasons, but probably not more than that. I’d expect plenty of doubles though, and Norby is a solid enough runner to add double-digit steals annually as well.
However, the one area I have questions with right now is where does the AVG wind up? While Norby was a .285 hitter in the minors, he only had a 70.3% contact rate in Triple-A this season and has a 75% zone and 68% overall contact rate in the Majors so far. But all in all, if Norby can hit .260 and be in the vicinity of 20/10, that will make him a nice CI or MI option for fantasy long-term.
Parker Meadows, OF, Detroit Tigers
One of my three most drafted players in NFBC leagues this spring was Parker Meadows. Getting his 20/20 upside after pick 200 was very enticing and it looked like he might open the year as Detroit’s leadoff hitter as well. Whoops. After posting a .096/.224/.219 slash line through May 6, Meadows was optioned back to Triple-A where he spent the next three months outside of a three game cup of coffee with Detroit in early July.
However, since being recalled from Triple-A Aug. 3, Meadows has been a completely different player. In 80 plate appearances, Meadows has slashed .329/.363/.592 with six doubles, four triples, two home runs and five steals. On top of that, Meadows has only struck out 16.3% of the time since being recalled after striking out in 37.6% of his plate appearances to start the season.
Sure, Meadows isn’t going to hit .329 forever, but I’m certainly encouraged by his 79.7% contact rate and 8.4% SwStr rate since being recalled. It’s a small sample size, but Meadows is finally rounding into form and showing why he was a popular draft day target at his ADP.
Moving forward, the upside is a borderline top-100 player who can flirt with or exceed 20/20 annually while hitting north of .260. Most trade deadlines have already passed, but Meadows would be a nice target in dynasty leagues this offseason, and I’d expect a top-200 ADP next spring in redraft leagues if this performance continues over the final month of the season.
Jhonkensy Noel, 1B/3B/OF, Cleveland Guardians
The man referred to as “Big Christmas” has been providing fantasy managers with plenty of presents so far. In 132 plate appearances, Jhonkensy Noel has already launched 12 home runs while slashing .254/.326/.602. For anyone that picked him up for cheap or free, you’re probably feeling pretty good right about now, aren’t you? Well, I’m about to throw a bit of cold water on this story.
Before I do, I want to say that I do believe Noel is going to have fantasy value moving forward. But how much? Yes, the home runs have been great, but Noel also has a 31.1% strikeout rate, 69.1% contact rate and a ridiculous 46% chase rate. That chase rate would be the highest in baseball, even higher than the chase king, Javier Báez.
Noel’s aggressiveness and below-average contact skills are a concerning combination and it’s hard for me to imagine him hitting higher than the .230-.240 range long-term. That could come with 30-plus home runs annually though. Noel’s quality-of-contact metrics surprisingly aren’t elite, but he does have an 89.3 mph AVG EV and 38.5% hard-hit rate. But Noel is able to maximize that as he barrels up pitches at a 19.2% clip with a 20.2-degree launch angle and pulls the ball 51.3% of the time.
Long-term, I could see Noel being 90% of what Rhys Hoskins was 2018-2022. That’s definitely a fantasy viable player, but I’d lean more toward selling Noel in dynasty leagues this offseason, as the perceived value has risen quite a bit lately.
