Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
After a week off for my vacation, we’re back with another six fantasy baseball players to discuss who are running hot or cold right now. The six players below are all intriguing names, and I’ll be digging into their performances and profiles to see what has gone right or wrong, and how I’m handling and valuing them moving forward.
Who’s Hot
Jordan Westburg, 2B/3B, Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles’ offense is loaded top to bottom, and you can make a strong case for Jordan Westburg being their best hitter overall so far through the first month of the season. In 88 plate appearances, Westburg has racked up five home runs and four steals with a .316/.379/.595 slash line. He’s also on pace for over 100 runs and RBIs as well. And when you look under the hood, Westburg’s metrics back up his early season performance and then some.
In 228 plate appearances last season, Westburg’s quality-of-contact metrics were solid across the board but have risen to new heights this season with a 12.7% barrel rate, 93.8 mph AVG EV and 60.3% hard-hit rate. All three of those metrics are in the Top-18% of hitters so far and Westburg also has an xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG in the top 6% of hitters along with an 83rd percentile sprint speed.
With that said, Westburg’s contact and zone contact rates have dipped and are below average right now, currently 62.3% and 72.6%, respectively. I’d expect some AVG regression moving forward, but Westburg is a legit 25-plus/15-plus threat right now and a potential top-75 player or better moving forward.
Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Prospect growth is not linear. Say it with me again. Prospect growth is not linear, and Colton Cowser is a perfect example of that. He’s also a perfect example of why we shouldn’t overreact to small sample sizes from prospects after they make their big-league debuts.
If Westburg hasn’t been the best hitter for Baltimore so far, it’s because Cowser has. In just 64 plate appearances so far, Cowser is already up to six home runs and three steals to pair with a .345/.391/.759 slash line. Like Westburg, Cowser has impressive quality-of-contact metrics, highlighted by a .612 xSLG and 17.9% barrel rate, but he too has some contact concerns that I think will lead to regression in the AVG department.
Cowser is currently running a 71.9% zone contact rate, 66.4% overall contact rate, and a 31.3% strikeout rate. He’s probably more of a .260-.270 hitter than a .300-plus hitter moving forward, but that could come with 30 home runs, double-digit steals, and plenty of runs and RBIs as well. This profile smells like a top-75 player moving forward and top-20 outfielder.
Tanner Houck, SP, Boston Red Sox
With another quality start Tuesday, Tanner Houck now has four in five outings this season with three of those outings yielding zero earned runs. For the season, Houck has a stellar 1.65 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3.8% walk rate, and 24.6% strikeout rate. How much of this hot start is legitimate though? Well, I’m not ready to put Houck in the ace discussion, there have been tangible changes and improvements made this season that have me encouraged.
Like many Boston arms under the tutelage of Andrew Bailey, Houck has altered his arsenal, throwing more sinkers, sliders, and splitters this season with fewer cutters and scrapping the four-seamer entirely. Both the slider and splitter have a BAA under .200, SLG under .300, and a whiff rate above 29% (40.3% for the slider), and Houck’s sinker has a .387 SLG and .097 ISO allowed.
On top of that, Houck has dropped his walk rate from 8.9% in 2022 and 2023 to just 3.8% this season. Moving forward, I’m valuing Houck as a Top 30 SP or so as a high-end SP3 or back-end SP2. The raw talent has always been there, and Houck is finally putting it all together this season.
Who’s Not
Randy Arozarena, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
While he does have two home runs and four steals in 99 plate appearances so far, Randy Arozarena has struggled to the tune of a .154/.222/.231 slash line so far. That’s not exactly the slash line we had hoped for from a guy with a top-50 ADP this season. But what has gone wrong?
Well, it hasn’t been one or two things we can point to. Instead, his metrics have gotten worse across the board. His barrel rate and hard-hit rate have dropped 6% and 7.7% respectively while his walk, strikeout, zone contact, and contact rates have all worsened by 3.4 to 5.1%.
How concerned should we be? Well, I’m not ringing the alarm and going into full panic mode yet. Entering 2024, Arozarena was considered one of the more stable top-50 picks with three straight 20/20 seasons under his belt. Maybe he’s struggling to adjust to the bulk he added this offseason. Whatever the issue is, it’s not time to panic with Arozarena, and I’d still be starting him each week and buying low if possible.
Jordan Walker, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
NOTE: Jordan Walker was demoted on Tuesday morning, April 24.
After a decent rookie season, this was supposed to be Jordan Walker’s big breakout campaign. Not so fast. On the surface, Walker has been incredibly disappointing this season with a .155/.239/.259 slash line in 63 plate appearances and a whopping zero home runs or steals. St. Louis has started benching more and more frequently lately, which just adds to the frustration for Walker’s fantasy managers.
For 2024 alone, league depth comes into play here when deciding whether to hold or fold in redraft leagues. If you play in shallower formats, he’s fine to cut given the struggles and uncertain playing time. But those in deeper formats like 15-teamers, you may want to hold.
As for dynasty purposes, I’m 100% holding and/or buying low. It might not appear this way, but Walker has actually made some improvements since last season. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but Walker has improved his barrel rate from 7.5% to 11.9%, his AVG EV from 89.4 mph to 91.7 mph, and has seen his contact rates tick up around 3%. This is still an extremely talented player with top-25 overall upside.
Joe Musgrove, SP, San Diego Padres
While he does have back-to-back quality starts his last two times out, Joe Musgrove hasn’t looked like the Musgrove we’ve come to know and love over the last several years. In six starts this season, Musgrove has posted a 5.74 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 16.8% strikeout rate and an 8.8% K-BB rate. All of those would be career-worst marks if the season ended today. Luckily, we still have over five months remaining, but should we be expecting Musgrove to return to his previous form that yielded an ERA under 3.20 in three straight seasons entering 2024?
While I’m absolutely expecting his ratios and strikeout rate to improve from their current marks, I’m not overly optimistic that 2021-2023 Musgrove is walking through that door right now. Musgrove’s fastball velocity is down almost a full tick right now and getting absolutely pummeled to the tune of a .429 BAA and .857 SLG. He’s not walking a ton of batters (although up 2.7% from 2023), but Musgrove has been leaving his fastball, cutter and sinker, over the heart of the plate too often and all currently have a BAA of .385 or higher.
So, while I’d buy low if the price has dropped enough, I’d valuing Musgrove more as a top-40 SP rather than the top-20 range he was the last few years.
