Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s crazy to think about, but we’re now over halfway through the 2024 season, and the All-Star break is quickly approaching. But even though the first half is in the rearview mirror, the season is just heating up and we still have player values shifting all over the place. After discussing several trending hitters last week, I’m going to dive into four intriguing young pitchers this week and discuss their profiles and how I’m valuing them moving forward.
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Hunter Brown’s turnaround this season has been incredible. After his first nine outings, Brown had a 7.71 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and 11.2% K-BB rate. Many fantasy managers had already dropped him by that point or were at least strongly considering it. If you were one of the managers that opted for benching instead of cutting, then you’re probably feeling pretty damn good right about now with how Brown has pitched lately. Over Brown’s last eight starts, he’s posted a stellar 1.29 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 20.7% K-BB rate. Brown’s 23.3% K-BB rate in June was the 8th-best mark among qualified pitchers.
While there’s no denying that Brown wasn’t pitching well in April and early May, a bit of bad luck played into the struggles as Brown’s ERA indicators have been lower than his surface ERA all season. Brown has also exponentially improved his quality of contact allowed metrics, allowing just a 5.1% barrel rate, 86.6 mph AVG EV and 31.5% hard-hit rate.
Another encouraging part of Brown’s profile this season that can help explain his turnaround is the pitch mix changes. Brown has started throwing a sinker that he didn’t use in April and has been trimming his 4-seam usage which is probably the right call given the poor metrics on it in 2023 and in April/May this season. Brown has also completely ditched his slider over the last month, throwing it just twice in June and none in his first July outing.
Is Brown going to be a stud ace pitcher for fantasy? Probably not. But he has the combination of stuff, bat-missing ability, and ability to generate groundballs that should make him an impact pitcher for a long time.
Luis Gil, New York Yankees
Did Brown steal Luis Gil’s powers like the Monstars did to the NBA stars in the original Space Jam? Seems like it because Gil has had basically the exact opposite season to Brown. In Gil’s first 14 starts of the season, he posted a 2.03 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 30.4% strikeout rate and a .142 BAA. However, that also came with a 12.2% walk rate. But now after allowing 16 earned runs over his last 9.2 innings, Gil’s ERA has shot up to 3.41. What happened to cause the sudden downfall?
As you can see above, all three of Gil’s offerings performed worse in June than they did in May, especially in the exit velocity department. Gil’s slider is the most notable one of the three as it went from a .037 BAA, .037 SLG and 32.6% whiff rate to a .200 BAA, .533 SLG and 17.2% whiff rate. At the same time, Gil’s walk rate has jumped to 16.5% over his last four starts and he has more walks (13) than strikeouts (12) during this span.
Gil isn’t commanding his pitches well right now, and hitters are laying off more and more as they know he has issues throwing strikes consistently. I’m not thinking that Gil was a fluke over the first six weeks of the season, but he was also pitching well above his talent level. I’m not opposed to buying low right now, but he’s more of a top-40 SP moving forward than top-25.
Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
The 2024 season has been 80% kind to Taj Bradley through his first 10 starts. I say that because Bradley has pitched well in eight of his 10 starts and given up 14 of his 21 runs combined in the other two starts. Since allowing nine earned runs June 1, Bradley has recorded a 1.24 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.5% walk rate and a 34.5% strikeout rate. He ranks in the top 10 for both strikeout and K-BB rate over the last 30 days and opposing hitters are slashing just .175/.254/.272 off Bradley in his last five starts.
If you take out the two blowup starts, Bradley would have a pristine 1.40 ERA this season as he’s allowed just seven earned runs in his other eight starts spanning 45 innings.
With Bradley, talent and stuff have never been the issue and his career 20.6% K-BB rate shows that. He can miss bats with all four offerings and currently has a whiff rate above 33% on his splitter, cutter and curveball with the splitter and cutter both having a BAA under .200 as well.
However, the one concern I have with Bradley is how much hard contact he gives up as he currently has a 14.1% barrel rate and 44.4% hard-hit rate allowed. But Bradley has been able to pitch well even despite those metrics, so it’s not a major concern moving forward unless they get worse.
Moving forward, Bradley should be valued as a top-25 pitcher for fantasy purposes with the upside to flirt with ace status if he can improve the QoC metrics.
DJ Herz, Washington Nationals
The first six starts of DJ Herz’ career have been a roller coaster. Overall, Herz has a middling 4.67 ERA, but two of his six starts have yielded zero walks and double-digit strikeouts, and he has a 30.6% strikeout rate and 24.8% K-BB rate overall. But despite those impressive marks, Herz is not a pitcher I’ll be targeting in any format for redraft or dynasty.
The main reason why I’ve never really been in on Herz is his below-average or worse command and control. That’s putting it nicely too. Sure, Herz has a 5.8% walk rate through his first six outings with the Nationals, but he posted a 15.3% walk rate in his 317.2 career minor league innings. You can blame a small part of Herz’s bloated 19% walk rate in Triple-A this season on the ABS system, but this has been an issue for a while with Herz these issues usually don’t magically get better over a short period of time like this.
Even in these six starts with Washington, Herz’ command hasn’t been good, as shown above. On top of that, over 60% of the batted balls Herz allows are either fly balls or line drives and a good chunk of those are pulled.
Can Herz provide some fantasy value long-term? Yes. But he’s going to be inconsistent start to start, week to week, and month to month. He’s more of a back-end top-100 pitcher.
