Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
MLB’s All-Star break is under a week away, and we can all take a quick breather. From setting fantasy baseball lineups that is. Regardless of whether you’re in a redraft or dynasty league, time is running out to make moves to strengthen your chance at chasing a title this season. Being on top of player trends is a season-long (redraft) and year-round (dynasty) aspect of playing fantasy baseball, and this article each week on FTN is crafted with that notion in mind.
José Miranda, 1B/3B, Minnesota Twins
If you looked at wRC+ leaders over the last month, Shohei Ohtani is unsurprisingly in first and Bryce Harper is in third. Those are two MVP winners and future Hall of Famers. But, as you probably could’ve guessed from the header above, José Miranda is the player right between them in second. Who would’ve thought this would happen this season given the lackluster showing from Miranda in 2023?
Over the last 30 days, Miranda slashed a stellar .442/.490/.686 with three home runs, 23 RBIs, 15 runs scored and nearly as many walks (9) as strikeouts (10). This hot streak includes a string of 12 straight at-bats with a hit. It’s not like Miranda was struggling before the last 30 days either as he’s slashing .332/.373/.534 in 268 plate appearances this season with nine home runs.
Is Miranda going to maintain a .330-plus average? No, probably not. However, his metrics and prospect pedigree should have fantasy managers feeling confident that this season hasn’t been a fluke. Miranda doesn’t walk much, but only strikes out 13.2% of the time with an 87.3% zone and 79.7% overall contact rate. He’s also hitting north of .300 against all three pitch types and has recorded above-average quality of contact metrics across the board.
Miranda’s profile should bring confidence in him being a .280-plus hitter who can add 20-25 home runs annually. That’s good enough to make him a backend starter at either corner spot or a high-end corner infield option.
Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees
After picking up three hits June 5, Anthony Volpe was slashing .290/.355/.448 and was being considered a top-50 (or better) fantasy player. But as the infamous Michael Scott of the then-Michael Scott Paper Company once said, “Well, well, well, how the turn tables.”
In 134 plate appearances since then, Volpe is slashing .177/.202/.239 with four steals and a big ol’ goose egg in the home run column. In fact, Volpe hasn’t gone yard since May 16 and has recorded a 3.7% barrel rate and 33.7% hard-hit rate over that span. So, what has gone wrong and what should we expect moving forward?
We’re now over a thousand plate appearances into Volpe’s career, and he’s produced an uninspiring .226/.292/.379 slash line. It hasn’t been one or two big issues that have caused this either, but more several little things adding up. Volpe’s contact rates are around average, but he doesn’t walk much (3% over the last month), and his groundball rate has spiked to 51.9% this season, a 10.8% jump from 2023. On top of that, Volpe’s pull rate has dropped a whopping 20.1 percentage points from 46.7% to 26.6%. Basically, his batted ball angles stink and he doesn’t have the level of quality of contact to make up for it.
While Volpe is certainly better than what we’ve seen over the last month, this is also a player who hasn’t hit higher than .251 at any level above Single-A, and 2021 was the only year he hit above .251 in general. This is a .240-.250 hitter that can still steal 25-30 bags annually given his plus speed, even with a lower OBP. But I wouldn’t expect many more seasons of 20-plus home runs.
It would be pointless to sell right now given the funk he’s in, but I’d entertain the idea once he heats back up a little as his name still carries plenty of value. He’s probably more of a back-end top-100 player moving forward than a top-50 asset.
Francisco Álvarez, C, New York Mets
After missing nearly two months with a thumb injury, Francisco Álvarez has been swinging a hot bat since returning to the New York Mets lineup. In 87 plate appearances since returning, Álvarez is slashing .342/.414/.579 with three home runs and a 182 wRC+, which ranks 15th among qualified hitters over the last 30 days. For the season, Álvarez is slashing a solid .298/.363/.589 in 146 plate appearances but has only hit four home runs after cranking 25 in 423 plate appearances last season. Those 25 home runs came with a .209 AVG though.
Which Álvarez are we going to get and which Álvarez do we want? Do we want the low AVG bat that cranks a bunch of home runs or do we want a better average but fewer home runs. That’s often the tradeoff that happens with younger hitters making adjustments, but sometimes, hitters can find that happy medium and not have to sacrifice too much power or contact to improve the other.
When comparing 2023 to 2024, the differences and contact/power tradeoff goes beyond just the surface stats. Álvarez has improved his zone contact, overall contact, and strikeout rates, but has seen his barrel rate drop from 12.8% to 7.1%, AVG EV from 90.1 mph to 88.7 mph, and his hard-hit rate from 45.1% to 39.8%. While I’m encouraged to see those improvements, Álvarez’ near .300 AVG is unlikely to stick as he’s running a .372 BABIP this season and has a .234 xBA. The contact rates have improved, but not to the level of him being a .280-plus hitter.
Moving forward, Álvarez is going to need to find that middle ground. Once the BABIP stabilizes and he becomes more of a .250 hitter with his current game power output, he becomes much less desirable for fantasy purposes. If he can be a .250 hitter with 25 home runs annually, Álvarez would be a top-five option at the catcher position or close to it. But for now, he’s more of a sell than a buy.
Will Benson, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Remember that stretch in the middle of 2023 when Will Benson was one of the best hitters in baseball? Those were fun times, weren’t they? For a month and a half from June 6 to July 21, Benson slashed .359/.473/.696 with 16 extra-base hits, six home runs, six steals and nearly as many walks (20) as strikeouts (24) in 112 plate appearances. And given his blend of raw power, speed and athleticism, Benson was arguably the buzziest player in baseball for those six weeks with his dynasty stock skyrocketing. And while he cooled off a bit after that, Benson still held his own in the second half of last season and finished with a .275/.365/.498 slash line in 329 plate appearances.
The 2024 season has been a completely different story, however. In 284 plate appearances, Benson is slashing just .192/.279/.384. He still has 10 home runs and 11 steals, but the AVG and OBP have more than cancelled out his power/speed contributions. Is there any hope for a turnaround and having some fantasy value moving forward?
I’m not so sure. Benson is still hitting the ball hard with a 12.2% barrel rate and 41.7% hard-hit rate, and he’s above a 10% walk rate for the second straight season. However, Benson also has a 40.1% strikeout rate, a 68.9% zone contact rate, and a 60.5% overall contact rate. On top of that, Benson has a whiff rate of around 50% on both breaking and off-speed pitches. When a hitter dips into the mid-70s for zone contact, I get concerned. Benson is well below that and is in danger of dropping below a 60% contact rate overall.
Simply put, it really doesn’t matter how much power and speed you have if your contact rates and strikeout rate are this bad. I’m pretty out on Benson and don’t have much optimism for him having a major turnaround.
