Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The first half of the 2024 MLB season is coming to a close, and what a first half it’s been. We always have breakouts and disappointing players every season, but it feels like this season’s first half has been one of the craziest in recent memory. So many star players are hurt or underwhelming offensively while dozens of players that were drafted late or not at all have provided fantasy value in one way or another.
With so many player values shifting this season, I’ve been focusing on that in my Crossed Up column each week here on FTN Fantasy, and I have another four-pack of intriguing hitters this week who are surging or struggling over the last month.
Heliot Ramos, OF, San Francisco Giants
I’m actually surprised I haven’t discussed Heliot Ramos in Crossed Up yet this season. Through the first half of the season, Ramos has been one of the biggest waiver wire gems thanks to his 10 home runs and .295/.372/.524 slash line in 188 plate appearances. But is this level of production sustainable for the former top prospect?
Notice how I said “former” top prospect? That’s because Ramos fell from grace after the pandemic with three seasons mixed with poor production and/or injuries. Ramos was limited to just 67 games in 2023, but slashed .303/.384/.570 with 14 home runs and nine steals in 282 plate appearances.
When it comes to Ramos’ power and speed, this is where I’m a believer. Ramos showed plus raw power and average or above-average speed in the minors, but making contact was the main issue for him. All of that remains the case so far in the Majors as well. On the plus side, Ramos is currently running a 15.8% barrel rate, 53.1% hard-hit rate and 92.2 mph AVG EV along with a 74th percentile sprint speed. But on the down side, he has a 28.2% strikeout rate, 51.8% groundball rate and a 68.8% overall contact rate.
While the contact and strikeout rates aren’t terrible, Ramos is probably more of a .250-.260 hitter long-term than one that hits close to .300 as he is now. But as long as that comes with 25-30 home runs and maybe even double-digit steals, Ramos should be able to hold top-100 value or close to it long-term.
Steven Kwan, OF, Cleveland Guardians
In general, I’ve never been overly high on the high-contact hitters who don’t provide much power or speed. Hence why I’ve always ranked Luis Arraez lower than most. However, I’m making an exception here for Steven Kwan. On top of Kwan hitting .385 with a .443 OBP right now, he also has a 650-plate-appearance pace of 135 runs, 20 home runs and 11 steals. Even if Kwan regresses a bit in the second half, I’d still be more than pleased with 100 runs, 15 home runs and 10 steals with an average well north of .300.
While it’s unlikely that Kwan hits .385 all season (which would break the 21st century single-season record for batting average by 13 points), the .300 mark should be considered his floor at this point. Yes, he’s never hit .300 in a season so saying that might sound foolish, but Kwan’s profile screams multiple batting titles.
Kwan currently has a 97.2% zone contact rate, 94.3% overall contact rate, 18.9% chase rate and a 2.1% SwStr. On top of that, Kwan is striking out less (6.9%) than he’s walking (8.7%) and has the second-best xBA in baseball behind only Shohei Ohtani, who apparently can’t let anyone else lead a category. It’s very possible that we look back in a decade or so and Kwan’s batting averages in his first two seasons are the lowest two marks of his career.
Now, as for the power, Kwan doesn’t have much to get excited about here. Kwan’s 2.1% barrel rate, 86.2 mph AVG EV and 21.8% hard-hit rate are all in the bottom-10% of hitters this season, but having the seventh-highest sweet spot rate certainly helps.
Moving forward, I’m expecting an average well over .300, 10-plus steals over a full season, and power/speed in the vicinity of 15 home runs and 10 steals.
Maikel García, 3B, Kansas City Royals
Earlier in the season, all of the Maikel García truthers from draft season were dancing in the streets as García appeared to be breaking out as hoped. After a two-hit game May 27, García was slashing .270/.314/.419 with 32 runs, five home runs, 34 RBIs and 13 steals. That was in 53 games, giving García a full-season pace of 96 runs, 15 home runs, 102 RBIs and 40 steals. Getting that type of production, especially the speed, was massive for fantasy managers as the third base position has been a train wreck so far this season.
But unfortunately, García’s season started derailing May 28, and he’s slashed .157/.239/.177 with zero home runs over his last 113 plate appearances. In the words of the Prince of Darkness, Ozzy Osbourne, “García’s going off the rails on a crazy train.”
This sudden and drastic shift in production has led many to ask the question, “What the heck happened?”
García’s approach has still been solid with a 9.7% walk rate and 14.2% strikeout rate during this span, but lady luck has been kicking his rear end with a .186 BABIP. As for his quality-of-contact metrics, García has a decent 91.4 mph AVG EV and 41.9% hard-hit rate, but he’s been pounding everything into the ground with a 54.1% groundball rate and only one barrel. That’s the main issue right there.
Due to the fact that many of García’s metrics are still good under the hood (hey, that rhymed), I’d be willing to buy low right now both in dynasty and in redraft leagues that have in-season trading. His higher groundball rates, which have always been an issue, will likely keep the home run totals in check until he’s able to make that adjustment at the plate, which is easier said than done. But I’d expect some positive regression for García moving forward as his BABIP stabilizes and exits the gutter.
Zack Gelof, 2B, Oakland Athletics
Every player mentioned in Crossed Up this season has either been running hot or cold at the time I wrote about them. But with Zack Gelof, he’s probably the first who could technically fall into both categories. Over the last 30 days, Gelof has five home runs and four steals in 95 plate appearances, which have certainly helped fantasy managers. But outside of that, he’s hitting .211 with a .234 OBP and 36.8% strikeout rate.
We’ve witnessed Gelof’s strengths and weaknesses throughout his short career and those have been especially prominent so far this season. In 244 plate appearances, Gelof has eight home runs and eight steals, and has a 650 plate appearance pace of 26 home runs and 26 steals so far in his career. Nothing about that has been fluky either as Gelof has recorded above-average contact rates and an 85th percentile sprint speed.
However, once you move past the power and speed metrics, Gelof’s profile turns dark and gloomy. For the season, Gelof has a 6.1% walk rate, 35.2% strikeout rate, 71.2% zone contact rate, and a 63.2% overall contact rate. None of those are even close to being league average and all four of them can be considered terrible or bordering on terrible.
All four are also major red flags moving forward. We’ve seen plenty of hitters with above-average power and speed fizzle out and underperform due to their poor contact skills and approach. It’s way too early to write off Gelof, but I’m also not looking to buy right now in redraft or dynasty leagues either. Not until he shows me some signs of life and improvements in those metrics mentioned above.
