NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
At this point in the fantasy baseball season, you’re either in your playoffs if you’re in a head-to-head league or fighting for positioning in your roto/points league, hopefully with some money on the line. Even if you’re out of contention, it’s never to early to begin preparation for the following season. However you decide to use my Crossed Up column here on FTN Fantasy each week, I hope it’s beneficial to you in some way. Even if you just enjoy reading baseball/fantasy baseball content.
This week, I’m digging into three players who have emerged as viable fantasy options over the last few months to see if I’ll be chasing or fading them this offseason in dynasty leagues or next spring in redraft league drafts.
Spencer Horwitz, 1B/2B, Toronto Blue Jays
It’s been a rough season for the Toronto Blue Jays offense as a whole, but a bright spot has been the emergence of Spencer Horwitz. In 319 plate appearances, Horwitz has slashed .278/.364/.473 with 12 home runs, 35 RBIs and 42 runs scored. He’s even settled into the cleanup spot in the order directly behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. And now that he’s playing first base, Horwitz has dual 2B/1B eligibility, which also means CI and MI as well. That flexibility is huge in today’s game where we have so many injuries.
When you dive into Horwitz’s metrics, your jaw isn’t going to do one of those fall-to-the-floor cartoon actions, but it’s a decent profile all around. Horwitz has shown a rock-solid approach at the plate with a 10.7% walk rate, 17.6% strikeout rate, and a better than league average chase rate as well. He’s also above average in both zone and overall contact, sitting at 84.8% and 80.8% respectively.
As for his quality of contact, Horwitz is currently running a 9.4% barrel rate, 88.6 mph AVG EV, and 38.8% hard-hit rate, all of which are league average or a tick above. These metrics are maximized by Horwitz’s 39.7% sweet spot rate, which is in the 94th percentile of all hitters this season.
Horwitz really only struggles against offspeed pitches where he has a .186 BAA, .254 SLG and 85.9 mph AVG EV. He’s hitting over .280 with a SLG over .500 against both fastballs and breaking balls.
Is Horwitz a stud fantasy asset that you build your team around? No. However, the profile is solid all around with no glaring red flags. Horwitz has all the makings of an annual CI or MI option and a top-150 overall player capable of going .270-plus/20-plus.
Matt Wallner, OF, Minnesota Twins
We’ve seen several emerging power hitters over the last few years, but one who doesn’t get talked about much is Matt Wallner. After slashing .249/.370/.507 with 14 home runs in 254 plate appearances last season, Wallner has been even better this season with 12 home runs and a .261/.380/.561 slash line in 215 plate appearances. Wallner is on a 36-homer 650-PA pace if you combine the last two seasons, but the problem is that Wallner struggled early in the season and was sent down to the minors for nearly three months from mid-April to early July.
Since Wallner returned to Minnesota’s lineup June 7, Wallner is slashing .290/.399/.613 in 183 plate appearances with 15 doubles, 11 home runs and a 10.4% walk rate. All of that looks great until I mention the 33.9% strikeout rate over this span and .389 BABIP overall this season.
Wallner’s profile can be split into two wildly different buckets. In the positive and fun bucket, you’ll find his 20.6% barrel rate, 94.1 mph AVG EV, 55.9% hard-hit rate, 40.2% sweet spot rate and ability to hit the ball in the air consistently. Those quality of contact metrics along with his .502 xSLG are all in the top few percent of hitters this season.
But unfortunately, the negative bucket is just as loaded. Wallner currently has a 36.6% strikeout rate, 18% SwStr rate, 66.3% zone contact rate, and a 59.4% overall contact rate, and has a whiff rate above 35% against all three pitch types. I’m definitely a believer in him being an annual 30-homer bat if he gets enough playing time, but there’s no chance in you know where that this .290 AVG over the last two months will stick. I’m not even sure he can maintain a .260 average given those contact, whiff, and strikeout rates.
Victor Robles, OF, Seattle Mariners
Given his former top prospect status, there’s still a good chunk of fantasy baseball Twitter that will get excited anytime Robles does anything positive. That includes right now, as Robles has been hitting well for Seattle since they acquired him from the Nationals. In 62 games with Seattle, Robles is slashing .317/.380/.461 with 14 doubles, 4 home runs and 20 steals.
It’s certainly encouraging to see Robles performing well as the last four seasons for him since his rookie season have been filled with poor performance, injuries, or both. However, I’m not going to be exerting much effort this offseason to try and acquire him in dynasty leagues or next spring in the draft room.
I’m not saying Robles can’t be a low-end option, but I’m also not seeing much in the profile that warrants him being valued as anything higher than that. Let’s start with some of the positives. On the surface, Robles has hit .293 this season but doesn’t have the elite contact metrics you’d expect. His contact metrics aren’t bad, but he’s a hair below MLB average both in zone and overall, currently sporting an 80.4% zone and 74.1% overall contact rate. Robles is also overly aggressive with his approach, recording a 53.9% swing rate and 54.9% first-pitch swing rate this season. The latter of those two metrics is a whopping 25% higher than the big-league average.
It’s not like Robles can use his quality of contact metrics to his advantage either as he is well below big-league average in the exit velocity (85.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (29.3%) departments. Although, he does have a 7.8% barrel rate. Most of his damage is done on fastballs where he has a .356 BAA, .542 SLG and all four of his home runs. Robles struggles against both breaking and offspeed pitches, currently having a BAA under .220, SLG under .270, and an average exit velocity well below 80 mph on both.
Moving forward, I’m not sure we ever see Robles reach double-digit home runs, and I’m a firm believer that his average will regress to the .270 range. Again, once you add in his ability to steal 30 bags annually, there will still be some value here. But this isn’t a profile I envision ever providing top-100 overall value or even anything remotely close to it.
