Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
This week’s edition of Crossed Up here on FTN Fantasy is all about hitters. Specifically, a quartet of intriguing bats that have been providing plenty of fantasy value lately in their own way. How legit are these performances? What should we expect from each player moving forward? Let’s dig in.
Jake Burger, 1B/3B, Miami Marlins
After going 1/4 with three strikeouts July 11, Jake Burger’s season slash line sat at an underwhelming .215/.256/.349. As someone who invested heavily in Burger this spring, his first-half performance was incredibly disappointing. You could say that the burger left a bad taste in fantasy managers’ mouths and wasn’t cooked properly. But luckily, this second half Burger has been cooked to perfection.
In his last 26 games, Burger is slashing .350/.416/.820 with a whopping 14 home runs. No other hitter has as many home runs as Burger does over the last month, but he only has 20 runs and 19 RBIs over the last 30 days thanks to the lackluster lineup around him.
I have two lines of thinking when it comes to Burger. The first thought is maybe he’s just a second half player. In 2023, Burger hit .220 with a .278 OBP in the first half compared to a .279 AVG and .339 OBP in the second half. That similar production spike is happening once again this season. But at the same time, Burger was also a hitter underperforming when compared to his underlying metrics.
While his approach still isn’t the greatest, Burger’s 5.7% walk rate and 27.1% strikeout rate are right in line with 2023 and his quality of contact metrics remain well above league average with a 13.1% barrel rate, 91.9 mph AVG EV and 48.1% hard-hit rate. And when it comes to his contact rates, Burger has actually improved his zone contact rate from 78.5% to 81.4% and his contact rate from 65.9% to 70%. While both of those are still below league average, both are also passable given Burger’s quality of contact metrics.
Burger will always be prone to his drastic peaks and valleys, but it’s hard to be too upset when the end product is a .250ish hitter with around 35 home runs. This production annually would have Burger in the top-100 overall mix.
Tyler Fitzgerald, SS/OF, San Francisco Giants
Let’s have a little fun with extrapolation, shall we? After hitting another home run Tuesday, Tyler Fitzgerald now has 13 home runs and 12 steals to go along with 36 runs, 25 RBIs and a .305/.363/.609 slash line. If we extrapolate those numbers out over 650 plate appearances, we’d get 123 runs, 44 home runs, 86 RBIs and 41 steals. Not too shabby, right? Especially for a player that wasn’t even drafted in many 50-round draft-and-hold leagues this spring.
Obviously, we shouldn’t expect a 40/40 pace moving forward, but how legit is Fitzgerald? What should we realistically expect moving forward?
While it’s fair to say that this level of production has been surprising, it’s not like Fitzgerald came out of nowhere or had a bad minor league career. He’s coming off back-to-back 20/20 seasons in 2022 and 2023 and smoked eight home runs in 17 games this season before his promotion.
Fitzgerald has shown a solid power/speed blend with the Giants so far, posting an 11.6% barrel rate, 88.4 mph AVG EV, 35.5% hard-hit rate and 99th percentile spring speed. While those quality of contact metrics don’t signal that he’ll maintain this level of power, Fitzgerald could settle in as a 20-homer bat who steals 20-plus bags as well.
So, while the upside is a 20/20 (or better) player, Fitzgerald is also running a 75.9% zone contact rate, 71% overall contact rate, 6.8% walk rate and a 27.9% strikeout rate, all of which are worse than league average and will likely limit him to some degree.
But even with that, Fitzgerald has the profile of a good middle infielder or a top-30 outfielder as long as the contact, walk, and strikeout rates don’t worsen moving forward. I’m not buying Fitzgerald at this current level, but there’s still plenty to like in the profile moving forward.
Jake McCarthy, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
While I was perusing Fangraphs the other day and looking at some hitting leaders, Jake McCarthy’s name popped up. And honestly, it surprised me at how good a season he’s been having, as nobody is talking about it. In 325 plate appearances so far this season, McCarthy is slashing .311/.380/.458 with six home runs, 17 steals, 40 RBIs and 45 runs scored. McCarthy’s profile is a mixed bag under the hood, but his areas of strength can certainly provide value to fantasy managers.
One area that is not a strength is McCarthy’s strength. McCarthy has posted well below-average quality of contact metrics with a 3.4% barrel rate, 85.5 mph AVG EV, and 24.1% hard-hit rate this season. But fortunately, you don’t need McCarthy to hit for much power as he provides value in the AVG and SB departments.
McCarthy has recorded a stellar 90.1% zone contact rate and 81.7% overall contact rate and has struck out only 16.9% of the time this season. And once he gets on base, McCarthy has been utilizing his 97th percentile sprint speed to his advantage, swiping 17 bags in just 325 plate appearances with an 85% success rate this season and an 85.2% success rate for his career.
Even if he only provides 5-10 home runs annually, McCarthy has the contact skills and speed to hit .280-plus with 25-plus steals annually. He’s also been hitting second in the order around two-thirds of the time lately, leading to a decent number of runs scored.
Zach Neto, SS, Los Angeles Angels
In a season where we’ve seen plenty of value shifts from shortstops, both positive and negative, Zach Neto’s season seems to be flying under the radar to some degree. In 445 plate appearances, Neto is slashing .266/.330/.463 with 54 runs, 17 home runs, 61 RBIs and 22 steals. He’s been one of the lone bright spots for a Los Angeles Angels team that is once again going to miss the postseason.
I’ve seen Neto bumped way up rankings, and while he’s risen up mine a fair amount this season, I’m not ready to include him among the top few tiers at this position. Neto is more of a sum-of-the-parts player than someone that stands out in any one area. Both his zone and overall contact rates are right around league average and his 8.8% barrel rate, 88.9 mph AVG EV and 38.6% hard-hit rate are all slightly above league average. Neto is also a good runner, but far from a burner.
Neto is a top-100 overall player with 20/20 upside annually to pair with a serviceable AVG and OBP. And while he’ll probably never stand out in any one area, but his ability to provide decent production across the board makes him a high-end MI or back-end starting shortstop in 12-team leagues. I’m not expecting a jump into the top tier or two of shortstops, though.
