Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 9/27)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves 

Cubs +135 @ Braves -160 – Total 9.5 (Caesars)

Our guy José Ureña got us to the window Tuesday night sweat free. I’m tempted to run it back and fade the White Sox bullpen with the Diamondbacks team total, but I found another prop I like in Atlanta. 

Jameson Taillon is in a tough spot as he faces an All-Star-filled Braves lineup. The 31-year-old has allowed the second-most hits per batter faced of his career. His 1.31 WHIP is the highest he’s posted since 2017, when he was still with the Pirates. The walks won’t help us here, but Taillon has gone over the 5.5 hits mark in 60% of his starts this season.  

The Braves lead the majors with 1008 hits against right-handed pitching in 2023, with the next team sitting 50 hits behind. Not only do the Bravos lead the majors in hits but runs, home runs, and batting average as well. Atlanta has been excelling at taking advantage of pitcher mistakes. Their 80.6% meatball swing percentage also leads the bigs, along with their 11.9% barrel percentage. 

My only concern is Taillon could potentially get hit around too much early, forcing a quick hook from Cubs manager David Ross before reaching the six-hit mark. Frank Brank’s MLB Model agrees with our bet; as Frank projects Jameson Taillon to allow 6.85 hits Wednesday night. Be sure to check the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.

Bet

Jameson Taillon Over 5.5 Hits (-145, Caesars)