Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
You would think that having to accommodate a holiday schedule would be pretty for Major League Baseball. You know, “just schedule everyone to play,” and done. Except it’s not nearly that easy. First, with Independence Day taking place on a Thursday, the league reined in Monday to only a three-game slate. Second, with so many day games Thursday, the league went all night games Wednesday—there are 15 games on the day’s slate, but none starts before 6:40 p.m. ET.
What does that mean? Well, with nine day games Thursday, we have a lot of night-to-day turnarounds around the league, which means there are going to be teams are going to have to be sensitive about reliever usage Wednesday. That can factor into our gambling decisions Wednesday.
Below are my favorite bets of the day. The odds change pretty quickly in baseball, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for the key picks from around FTN.
MLB Best Bets for Wednesday
Brandon Nimmo Over 0.5 Walks
(+160, BetMGM)
Brandon Nimmo is kind of a walk machine. His career walk rate is 13.0%, including a 12.8% rate this year that is 12th among 144 qualified hitters. Wednesday, he’ll face Jake Irvin, who has taken some strides in his second year (ERA improved from 4.61 to 3.03, FIP from 5.30 to 3.53), but who still has control problems, with a 3.2 career BB/9 rate that is 19th highest among 77 pitchers with at least 200 innings the last two years. On top of that, the Nationals — as one of six teams to have played Monday — have something of a burned bullpen right now. Closer Kyle Finnegan pitched the last two days and is likely unavailable Wednesday. Same for top setup man Hunter Harvey and No. 4 reliever Dylan Floro. The Nats bullpen Wednesday is basically Tanner Rainey (5.87 BB/9 in 23.0 innings), Jordan Weems (4.26 in 31.2) and Derek Law (2.34 in 50.0). Kevin Youkilis kind of has the “Greek God of Walks” nickname locked down, but Wednesday, it applies to Brandon Nimmo as well.
Minnesota Twins Over 5.5 Runs Alt Line
(+130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
For the season, the Twins have a perfectly solid 111 wRC+ as a team, tied for seventh in baseball. That skyrockets up to 135 over the last 30 days, behind only the Grimace Mets. Yes, Royce Lewis is hurt, but the offense is more than one guy — Carlos Correa has a 194 wRC+ in the last month, Byron Buxton a 173, Carlos Santana 169, Willi Castro 160. The offense is blazing hot. And Wednesday, that offense gets to face Keider Montero, he of the 5.21 ERA in 48.1 AAA innings this year, the 4.28 career professional ERA in almost 500 innings, he of the 9 runs allowed in 8.2 innings in the bigs this season. The Detroit bullpen is relatively rested (only Beau Brieske and Will Vest are possibly unavailable Wednesday), but it’s also only so-so (4.30 bullpen ERA, 20th among all teams; 4.03 FIP, 19th). And with Wednesday’s 8:10 p.m. start leading into a 2:10 p.m. start Thursday and the team in the midst of a stretch of 13 games in 13 days, Montero is going to have to give them innings Wednesday. That means the Twins offense should have a good time at the plate.
