Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 6/5)

We have a fair number of interesting pitching matchups across MLB Wednesday. There’s the double Jordan (Hicks vs. Montgomery, Giants-Diamondbacks). There’s the double Aaron (Ashby vs. Nola, Brewers-Phillies). It’s Paul Skenes Day, facing a resurgent 5-0 James Paxton. Logan Gilbert, Dylan Cease, Carlos Rodon, Albert Suarez, Brady Singer… there are plenty of productive pitchers and exciting pitching matchups across the league.

Which means we have plenty of gambling opportunities as well. Below are my favorite of the day. The odds change pretty quickly in baseball, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for the key picks from around FTN.

MLB Best Bets for Wednesday

St. Louis Cardinals Over 4.5 Runs

(+150, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Ronel Blanco is having a breakout season. It started with the no-hitter, but he went on to churn out five quality starts in his first six outings, and went 5.2 innings with 2 earned runs in his fifth and seventh outings. After serving a foreign-substance suspension, he returned strong, going 7 and allowing 1 run to the A’s. The wheels came off a little in his last start, when he allowed 4 runs in 4.2 innings and earning his first loss of the year, but even with that, his 2024 ERA sits at a tidy 2.44.

The problem? It’s certainly looking like an illusion. His FIP is 4.06, xFIP is 4.07. He’s allowed a certainly-unsustainable .200 BABIP. He’s carrying a relatively middling 24.3% K rate. He’s definitely made a leap this year, but not as much of one as his surface results look so far. On top of that, the Astros’ bullpen is probably a little light Wednesday. Bryan Abreu threw 28 pitches Tuesday and has pitched three of the last four days. Taler Scott threw 32 pitches Tuesday, Seth Martinez and Parker Mushinski pitched each of the last two days, Ryan Pressly and Rafael Montero each pitched two of the last three. Josh Hader (14 pitches Monday in his only outing since Saturday) is certainly available, but the bridge from Blanco to Hader (which even if Blanco’s success continues would be at least two innings) is a big question mark. Meanwhile, after the Cardinals offense started the season miserably (93 wRC+ in April, No. 21 in the league), things have turned around since the start of May (111 wRC+, third). Rising offense against pitcher due for regression with questionable bullpen? Here we go. (I’m comfortable taking over 5.5, +240, as well.)

Mark Vientos Over 1.5 Total Bases

(+115, Bet365)

You have to hand it to Patrick Corbin — he takes the ball. Since the start of 2020, he’s got a 5.64 ERA in 636.1 innings. That’s the 15^th-most innings in that span, and no one else in the top 20 in innings in that span is within a run of ERA of Corbin. He’s been first, fourth, first, second and now first in the league in hits allowed in that span and is positively running away with the league lead in hits over those five seasons:

Now, the Mets. Since the team sent Brett Baty down a week ago, Mark Vientos has become an everyday player, and he has three multi-hit games in five outings. Both times he came in under this prop were against right-handed starters, while Corbin is a lefty — Vientos has a .265/.319/.477 career slash line against lefties, compared to .207/.260/.364 against righties. Corbin gives up lots of hits. Vientos is hot and has the platoon advantage. Vientos will sail past this mark Wednesday.