Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
Guardians -140 @ Royals +118 — Total 9.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
We’re already 1-0 on FTN free plays Wednesday thanks to Braves starter Kolby Allard — hope you cashed with us! Let’s try to grab another W this Wednesday night with an additional strikeout prop. The Guardians and Royals face off in Kansas City for the second of a three-game set between the American League Central foes.
Rookie Logan Allen has made 11 starts in the show, posting a 3.68 ERA and 3.73 FIP through 58.2 innings. Allen’s rookie season got off to a great start, he had a 25% K% through his first seven starts. We’ve seen that number dip, as the righty has faced some more disciplined and talented lineups, but the Royals present a good matchup. The 24-year-old’s discipline metrics aren’t going to wow you, but he has posted a solid 12.2% swinging-strike percentage so far. Allen does not qualify for the leaderboard but that would put him just-outside the top-20 in terms of swinging-strike percentage, ahead of aces like Corbin Burnes and Gerrit Cole. The good news, according to Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard, is two of Allen’s three most thrown pitches have higher deserved strikeout percentage than actual strikeout percentage at the moment. So it’s safe to expect some positive regression from Allen in that department. His two best punchout pitches are his sweeper and changeup. The sweeper carries a 26.2% K% and 28.1% whiff percentage. While his changeup has a 35.5% whiff percentage and a 31.6% strikeout percentage. Those are two of Allen’s most thrown pitches, as their combined usage sits around 48%.
At the dish, Kansas City’s 24.4% K% against left-handed pitching is the eighth highest in MLB, and over the last 30 days that number sits at 27.4%, just one percentage point outside the top-five. Not many clubs have put up worse discipline metrics than the Royals over the last 14 days. The Royals’ swinging strike percentage sits at 13.7% over that stretch. They’re chasing too many pitches (34.1%) and not making enough contact on pitches inside the strike zone (81.4%). The Royals sit just-outside the top-10 in punchouts against both the sweeper and changeup. Overall KC’s 74.1% contact percentage ranks fourth worst in the show.
I’m projecting Allen to pitch five-plus innings Wednesday evening and K the five Royals we need to cash. Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with this over; as Frank projects Allen for 5.05 punchouts. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.
Bet
Logan Allen Over 4.5 K’s (-110, Caesars)
