Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Wednesday brings us yet another fuller-than-100% MLB slate, with 16 games thanks to a Braves-Cardinals day-night doubleheader. We’re relatively light on big-name pitchers on the slate, with the only Cy Young winner slated to pitch being … Dallas Keuchel, the 2015 winner, owner of a 6.29 ERA across the last three seasons and four teams, making his Brewers debut. (And even that’s a maybe — as of when I write this, depending on where you’re looking, the Brewers are starting Keuchel, or “Undecided,” or Colin Rea.)
That means our best bets for Wednesday are likely to favor the offensive side of things. Below are my favorite bets of the day. The odds change pretty quickly in baseball, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for the key picks from around FTN.
MLB Best Bets for Wednesday
Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Hits
(+190, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Small samples, but Marcus Semien has been pretty bad against righties this year, with a .626 OPS in 247 plate appearances. But he is crushing lefties to the tune of a .942 OPS in 103 PAs. Dallas Keuchel has been pretty good against left-handed hitters over the course of his career, allowing a .638 OPS, while righties have hit him for a .743.
And you know what? None of that really matters. This is the 2024 version of Dallas Keuchel. He’s put together a 6.29 ERA in 56 games for four teams over the last three years, with barely 1.5 strikeouts per walk and not that many of either (5.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9). He’s up Wednesday as a roster filler, with the Brewers. Semien leads off. Keuchel won’t walk him. Expect Semien to eat him up.
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Total Bases
(+120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Giants called up Hayden Birdsong for a spot start Wednesday. Birdsong’s overall minor-league numbers this year look strong enough, with a 2.51 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but that’s combined between AA and AAA, and his move to AAA a couple weeks ago did not actually go well, with 9 innings and 5 runs (5.00 ERA) across two starts. Meanwhile, the Giants’ key relievers are rested for Wednesday, but the bridge to get there is a rough one, with Randy Rodriguez going 53 pitches Tuesday, Spencer Bivens going 43 Monday, and Taylor Rogers, Sean Hjelle and Ryan Walker going at least 23 Tuesday. Birdsong has only gone more than 5 innings once this year in 13 outings, and the Giants don’t have the arms to get from him to the back of the bullpen. Bellinger might get multiple hits, or he might get a double (or more), but either way, multiple total bases should be coming his way.
