Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 5/24)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners 

Athletics +245 @ Mariners -300 — Total 8.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

The A’s and M’s play their third game of a four-game set Wednesday evening in Seattle. With only 10 victories on the season, the Athletics have the worst record in baseball. They’re 0-5 against Seattle so far and are huge underdogs in this matchup. The Mariners moneyline is too steep at -300 unless you have another piece you’d like to parlay with it — so we’ll stick with a team total here. 

Ken Waldichuk has made nine starts this season and recorded only one quality start. The lefty has allowed four runs or more in six of his nine outings this season, carrying a 6.85 ERA and 5.55 SIERA, both fourth worst in the majors this season (minimum 40 innings). His expected ERA isn’t much better at 6.26 — eighth worst. Nobody in the show has posted a worse FIP than Waldichuk at 7.28. The southpaw doesn’t do anything well, as both his strikeout and groundball percentage sit well below the league average. The 25-year-old has thrown his fastball 56% of the time this season and has allowed eight home runs on that pitch alone. Batters are hitting .299 and slugging .619 against his four-seamer, a pitch Seattle batters have handled well this season.

I mentioned the Mariners’ success against fastballs this season — they rank in the top 10 in both slugging percentage and wOBA. Their .395 xwOBA against fastballs is the second highest in baseball, behind only the dominant Rays. Seattle hasn’t been great against lefties on the season, but they’ve been better since the start of May. They are still sitting near the middle of the pack versus left-handed pitching with a 103 wRC+. Most of the Mariners’ stats aren’t going to blow you away as their offense got off to a slow start this season. They’ll bat seven right-handed hitters in the lineup tonight against Waldichuk who has a FIP of over seven against righties — one of the lefties Jarred Kelenic, has shown reverse splits and has handled southpaws very well this season. 

I’m not expecting Ken Waldichuk to complete five innings Wednesday before giving way to the worst bullpen in baseball. Oakland’s pen ranks dead last in a number of categories including ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and home runs allowed. I played some 4.5 as well but I like the flat five more if you need to lay more than -150 on the 4.5. Check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.

Bet

Mariners TT Over 5 (-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)