Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have yet another fuller-than-100% MLB slate Wednesday, with an Orioles/Cardinals rain suspension Tuesday giving us the last three-plus innings of that game before their regularly scheduled matchup, meaning instead of 15 games we have … 15.3 or so. The first starts at 1:05 p.m. ET and the last should carry well past midnight, so we have close to 12 full hours of baseball Wednesday.
That gives us a wealth of bet opportunities from Wednesday. Below are my favorite picks of the day. The odds change pretty quickly in the MLB, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for the key picks from around FTN.
MLB Best Bets for Wednesday
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases
+100, Caesars
Nobody is hotter than Kyle Tucker right now, with two two-homer games in the last three days. He’s rocking a 1.258 OPS in 19 games in May, raising his already-strong slugging percentage by nearly a hundred points in that time. It’s always risky to chase a streak, but Tucker’s odds are improved because he has a left-on-left matchup for Wednesday, facing Angels lefty Tyler Anderson, who has pitched well this year to the tune of a 2.72 ERA. That ERA is accompanied by a 4.51 FIP and a 4.90 xFIP, so Anderson’s ERA is artificially low. Tucker has put up a .997 OPS against lefties this year, below his 1.117 against righties but still superstar level in itself.
Add in to that that the Angels’ bullpen is drained for Wednesday. Carlos Estévez and Hunter Strickland have each pitched two days in a row and three of the last four, and Luis García has pitched three in the last four as well. Those are the Angels’ top three relievers, and all three are probably off the table for Wednesday (Estévez and Strickland are almost certain not to pitch). Their lefty relievers are Matt Moore (6.62 ERA this year) and José Suárez (7.11), so … even if Tucker doesn’t get to Anderson early, he’ll be able to feast on the Los Angeles bullpen late.
Blake Snell Under 5.5 Strikeouts
+110, DraftKings Sportsbook
Blake Snell made three appearances for the Giants in April before hitting the IL. He topped out at 4.2 innings in one start, 5 strikeouts in another. Since then he’s missed more than a munch with an adductor strain. He’s looked great in his rehab appearances, with 9 scoreless innings and 17 strikeouts over two starts. So long term, it’s probably safe to expect Snell to look more like his Cy Young self than the disaster he was in his Giants debut. But in the short term, note that he didn’t top 5 innings in either of his minor-league appearances either. He’s going to be on a definite innings/pitches cap Wednesday, so even facing a strikeout-friendly Pirates offense, Snell isn’t likely to be able to go deep enough to hit the over here, even if he pitches well … which, as we saw in April, is no guarantee.
